Trader Girl Forex Trades

I have read his book many years ago but can't recall exactly how he uses it.

But I'm using their NR Breakout script which they wrote in Visual Basic. It lets me select the time frame bar I use. It also has an interesting function where I can have it also alert me to when markets break out of this narrow range. So I've found on 60 min bars and 240 min bars I want to see and be alerted to the breakout plus have it plot their statistically modified chandelier stop which tightens once markets move way more than statistically normal each hour. They sometimes get out too soon but overall I've found they catch more pips than they let slip away so use that option.

I didn't code this and can't see their code but from the classes I attend I gather they look for Narrowest Range in last 4 hours along with an inside bar (high < prev high and low > prev low) and also NR7's which are narrowest bar in last 7 bars.

I also tend to focus on trades WITH the trend. Trend being defined as currencies I expect to go up next day based on my analysis I post here and also if currency is above hourly simple 20 period avg I look for buy breakouts and under hourly prefer to look for shorts.

There are some exceptions such as if I feel a currency has gone down too far and then has narrow range breakout to upside. I'll sometimes take those as its likely to go back up a lot and usually to the hourly MA which could be 30 to 70 pips up. So I'll risk 10 pips with great possibility of catching 30+ pips any time I happen to be awake and spot them.

Thanks for asking questions and I'm willing to share every part of my system except for how I calculate the likely trends the next day. It's not really necessary to make money and I just use it to trade larger when my predictions come true and real time tools show that I was right. I find it increases my avg wins dramatically.

It's not too hard to also code up your own NR script using their Visual Basic language. I'm 'trying' to create a very profitable automated system. It's HARD and you don't realize how smart the human brain is and how many rules you need to get a computer to THINK like you do when trading. As you can see many of these trades didn't work but it did catch a NICE NR breakdown for 75 pips.

I've been working on this for months and it just does too many dumb trades but if I can get rid of some of them then I plan to try to get it hooked up to a broker and then I can finally get a full night's sleep! That's my goal to make money in Forex and NOT be so exhausted all the time. I have many months and maybe years to go but seeing a touch of promise.

I feel pretty good about tomorrow's direction. Some days its VERY hard to predict likely next day's direction but today not one of them. I'm guessing I'll be right on 60 to 75% of them and then when confirmed by FX Multimap at my buy/sell levels or if trending my way by being above/below hourly moving avg as a filter you should do well.

I'm predicting the CHF is STRONGEST of all pairs followed by NZD and then EUR with just slightly upward bias on JPY.

Weakest currency tomorrow should be the GBP and then CAD with slightly less weak USD and AUD.

No matter HOW you trade Forex what determines the BIGGEST TRENDS is buying the strongest pair vs the weakest or selling the weakest pair vs the strongest !

If you see the EUR/GBP going up (means weak GBP) and GBPJPY going down, etc, etc and USD happens to be strong then pretty safe looking for pullbacks in GBP/USD ! That's the concept taught to me by the makers of the software I'm using and all I can say is it works for me, very well.

I don't trade the GBPCHF, CADCHF much but they should fall tomorrow as well as GBPNZD with the strong EUR going up against weak GBP, so look for buys on dips in EURGBP!

I hope my Journal helps you all, feel free to ask me anything. I trade about 8 systems in total and mostly focusing on overnight predictions and buying/selling my levels but may show some of the other systems as well. I have setup all kinds of alerts so its not very impressive, computer does all the work on watching all the pairs and all the systems for when there's a buy/sell.


EUR/GBP Buy lightly .9330 and .9265 to .9250
EUR/CAD Buy 1.6600 and 1.6516
NZD/USD Buy .5671 breakout up and heavily from .5500 to .5474
EUR/USD Lightly buy 1.3400 to 1.3385 and heavily from 1.3340 to 1.3316
NZD/JPY Buy 54.00 to 53.73 heavily also 53.28 should be max low of day
EUR/JPY Buy brekout of 132.85 and also lighly buy 131.00 to 130.85 and heavily at 130.38
USD/CAD Buy Breakout of 1.2350 and also at 1.2225 to 1.2193 and heavily at 1.2134
AUD/USD Buy .6832 to .6800
AUD/JPY Sell 69.20 to 69.53
USD/JPY Sell 98.50 to 98.75 and and breakdown of 97.20
GBP/USD Sell breakdown of 1.4516 and lightly 1.4700
CAD/JPY Lightly sell 78.80 to 80.15
GBP/JPY Aggressively sell 143.00 to 143.50
USD/CHF Sell the breakdown of 1.1180 and lightly 1.1325 and heavily 1.1400

I use real time tools to show me which currencies are STRONGEST and which are WEAKEST. Last night from 6pm EST onward the NZD was super strong and JPY very weak. It was also on my list of currencies to go up!

So I usually add 50% to 100% to my trading size and simply buy pullbacks as long as trend continues.

I took the pullback trade at 3am today in this and made 40 pips but highlighted the same entry method on other areas I would have taken trades had I been trading at that time.

I also traded the NZDUSD from my breakout level. I exited at .5748 when it broke back down under the sideways consolidation area. You can see very strong FX POWER index readings showing the NZD to be super strong and USD weak confirming I was right about this pair's direction in my overnight analysis. 74 pips made.

I'm anticipating the AUD being strongest tomorrow followed by NZD, CAD and slight USD strength.

I'm anticipating the GBP to be weakest followed by JPY and then EUR, CHF

Currencies to Buy
AUD/JPY Buy 68.50 to 68.00 using trendline entry
NZD/JPY Lightly buy 56.00 to 55.92 and 55.57 to 55.50
CAD/JPY Buy breakout of 80.50 and 79.50 to 79.39
USD/JPY Buy breakout of 99.00 and 98.00 to 97.89
AUD/USD Buy breakout of .7050 and .6915
USD/CHF Buy breakout of 1.1300 and 1.1180
EUR/GBP Buy breakout of .9375 and .9175 to .9150
EUR/JPY Buy breakout of 133.71 and 132.00
NZD/USD Buy .5625 to .5600

Currencies to Sell
USD/CAD Buy breakout of 1.2329 and sell breakdown of 1.2275
GBP/JPY Sell 144.50 and breakdown of 142.00
EUR/USD Sell breakdown of 1.3500 and sell 1.3650
GBP/USD Sell breakdown of 1.4435 and sell 1.4650

I expected the GBP to be the weakest currency and for GBPJPY to collapse if 142.00 was broken.

That's exactly what happened and my trend tools predicted this in real time.

1) Under hourly moving avg (gray line).
2) At 1:45 short term momentum shifted negative.
3) Under 180 balance point line
4) Before this about 70% of the currencies analyzed supported a short!
5) Broke my 142.00 support level which I knew would cause big drop

I shorted this at 142.95 and exited over 4 hours later when 1.618 fib target was hit and trendline broken. Most times when price is under lower containment band it will go up so I didn't re enter.

171 pips

The 1.4435 breakdown proved very profitable for GBPUSD too, out when trendline broken at key 1.618 fib target.

110 pips

This was my favorite trade Friday. It broke out at 1.1300 and because the USD was strongest currency and CHF weakest I held and caught almost every pip.

165 pips!

This was one of my better days. I'm not usually this accurate nor do I make this many pips in one day.

Those are very impressive results! Almost 450 pips just on those three trades. I'll try to follow your trades this coming week. Hopefully you'll have more of these days.

This was not an ordinary day. I have 200 to 300 pip days once or twice a month max and lets face it when a market takes off and your prediction is that direction and real time trend tools show its super strong or weak you just have to hang on and thank the trading gods. Other days you'll have choppy sideways non trending action which on those days you're lucky to break even and not lose 30+ pips.

I'm OFTEN wrong but use real time tools to TELL me I'm wrong so I just avoid those pairs. For example I think I thought AUDJPY would be strongest pair. I couldn't have been more wrong on this one. But just looking at chart you can see it was one of the WEAKEST pairs, it was under the hourly moving avg (gray line) and showed little odds of going up so I just avoided this one.

Tomorrow will be my last day in here for 2 or 3 weeks. Going on 10 day vacation, then doing taxes when I get back and it usually takes me a few days to get back into the swing of things before I heavily start trading again.

Doing nightly analysis night after night you get a FEEL for the pairs you trade and thats too much time to be away to have this gut feeling of next day's direction.

USD/CHF Lightly buy 1.1330 and aggressively 1.1300
GBP/USD May reverse tomorrow. Buy breakout of 1.4350 up to 1.4450 where it may stall
USD/CAD Buy breakout of 1.2450, may stall at 1.2465
AUD/USD Under .6943 look for shorts down to .6800
GBP/JPY Sell 141.75 to 142.06 and 142.75
NZD/USD Sell .5750
CAD/JPY Sell 79.66 to 80.00
USD/JPY Sell 99.00
EUR/USD Sell 1.3450 and aggressively 1.3500
AUD/JPY Lightly sell 68.31 and aggressively 68.50 to 68.59
EUR/CAD Lightly sell 68.31 and aggressively 68.50 to 68.59
EUR/GBP Sell .9350
NZD/JPY Sell 56.50
EUR/JPY Sell 131.74 to 132.27

I dont know about others, but I would like to see some justification and logic to your reasoning.

I'm not saying I disagree with your projections, but to help others see what you see and to know why you trade what you trade would be a great help.

Do you use stop losses at all in your trades, or do you have a minimum amount that you allow a trade to go against you before you close that trade?

Just dropping in to say hi.

I came over from ET to see how this thread is going.

I was looking at the software, and did you really pay the $$$ to purchase the software? And do you teach you the daily forecast that you write here. I'm sure you know european trader, he posts similar levels.

My entire system is based on logic. I look at HOW strong/weak each pair is using FX Power Index for that day and IF the market is very strong and IF the market is not near major resistance I'll assume that pair will continue trending up. If I see signs of a top then I'll predict that pair is likely to come down after a multi day up move and when major resistance is above.

I'm not going to release my actual methodology for likely trend direction the next day, thats the only part of my system I won't ever share however its not necessary and I only use that as a guide to HOW BIG I trade. If I anticipate a pair will be very strong and in real time it is I often double my position size. If I'm wrong then I simply don't trade it. By wrong I mean if I think currency will be strong and I see its the weakest of all pairs or has a 80% red FX Power Index score which means its weaker than 80% of pairs then I know its not likely to find support at the levels I anticipated the previous day.

I'm usually right about 60%+ of projections. Some days over 80% and other days only 50% but you can get a feel even without the tools I personally use if markets coming down FAST thats a BIG sign of weakness and you should wait for a double bottom before buying.

Also what's key and helps avoid many losses is using trendlines for entry. I draw trendlines over highs of down bars at areas I wish to buy and when price breaks out UP then I buy. If my level is wrong then price goes below it and I may get into trade 20-40 pips better entry!

Yes of course I always use stops. I try to limit stops in USD pairs to 10-12 pips and move stop to break even when it goes 8 to 12 pips up. For JPY pairs ie EURJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY I will use 20 to 25 pip stops and trade half the size of USD pairs.

My stop varies per trade based on where the swing high/low is.

Say I'm buying at my predicted low, I wait for the trendline off the highs of the down bars to break, enter on exact breakout NOT the close of the bar and then my stop is 2-4 pips under the swing low. Often its less than 10 pips but with spread averages around 10.

I am also a big believer in TIME STOPS. I use the FX Power Index draw color candles to show very short term momentum. If I'm long and I don't see the candle colors going green and hopefully DARK GREEN I'll be quicker to exit sometimes with 2 to 5 pip loss or 2 to 5 pip gain. I figure I can always get back in and if I don't see some momentum I'm probably wrong or early.

This applies more to my scalping techniques that I haven't discussed on here but I often do that with my level's entrys too. So if in 10 minutes it hasn't gone 10 pips my way stop is right near break even and I'm watching it tick by tick and out if it shows ANY signs of weakness for buys or strength for shorts.

I was originally a scalper for years in stocks and futures so still have that mentality which I've evolved into some longer term multi hour trades.

Glad you came over. You know I bought the software or I wouldn't be able to post the charts in here. I was already a profitable trader using both Trade Station and Erlanger Quote charts before buying TopGun so its cost to me was just 2 days trading profits back then. I originally bought it for its stock scanning abilities and S&P futures tools but they got me hooked in Forex as thats all they teach in their classes. It looked easy but was harder than I originally thought. Many of my stock and futures methods didn't work in Forex and I had to learn to be a TREND TRADER and no do counter trend so much! I used to scale into trade in the S&P and learned that while it often worked in Forex when WRONG you can lose a lot. I lost about $15,000 in one trade and haven't done that again in years!!

No, I won't ever teach the daily forecast method but don't mind posting my levels in here daily so unless I get hit by a bus on my vacation you'll have these when I get back.

Here's a trade I took after FIRST pullback. When I find a currency as this that is WEAKER than 84% of other pairs and was on my list of ones to sell today, I wait for first pullback up and then short the instant trendline got broken. In this case I went to sleep but set stop at 139.50 and set an alert to be notified if 137.50 got hit. The market was so weak that I then set it to 137 and see the dark colored bars after 2am? So dark red that I felt it would go down more. I have another alert I coded that tells me when price goes from below to above 5 bar simple moving average shifted 3 bars to the right. It's pretty similar to a trendline entry/exit.

I got out at 136.41 as I was a bit groggy then and took longer to get up and go check chart.

I also shorted the AUDJPY as well. One trade that I thought would go down was EURJPY and it did but I didn't take that one because the trend weakness wasn't as strong as GBPJPY and AUDJPY.

I try to CHERRY PICK my trades and miss a TON of great trades.

I didn't take this trade but my USDCAD breakout of 1.2450 would have made somebody some money. :-)

I had a few other trades on at this point and it didn't look too hot to me in real time so passed on it. Obviously now I wish I'd have pulled the trigger but I'd have probably exited at 1.2500 or so and only would have made 50.