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  • #701
  • Mar 26, 2009 10:54am Mar 26, 2009 10:54am
Quoting lordgbengs
I share the same view too,i guess wat distorted the whole setup was the Japanese export that reach all time low.
Hmmm, this is very important information indeed. This means that even though there were certain signals indicating a strong JPY, the fundamentals actually drove the rates up. In the process of driving the EURJPY back up, a couple of pinbars appeared that were spotted by whitegoodman and others. The battle still isn't over though, and I'm very curious what the future will bring us.

Btw nice post nomask. I always like it when Fib levels and S/R zones meet. It seems like you actually made that trade which lasted 46 days...
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #702
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:09pm Mar 26, 2009 3:09pm
Was thinking that a move below 1.22 might make its way to 1.19. Anyone else watching USDCAD?
Cheers
CanuckCT
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  • #703
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:20pm Mar 26, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Was thinking that a move below 1.22 might make its way to 1.19. Anyone else watching USDCAD?
Cheers
CanuckCT
i shorted this pair at 1.2859..although i got my target area already defined before entering trade i closed trade early for some silly reason with only 98 pips instead of 700+ pips..
i do still think there is still more room to move down..
so i guess around 1.20 is possbile..
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  • #704
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:43pm Mar 26, 2009 3:43pm
Just checking, does anyone else show resistance between .7200 - .7250 on the Aud/Usd? If so, it looks like price is approaching it. Sorry I cant post a chart right now. Clockwork, is this a valid setup do you think, or is my zone incorrect? Thanks
  • #705
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:51pm Mar 26, 2009 3:51pm
The market gave us another opportunity to go long on the H4 chart for GPB/JPY with a 2nd pinbar hitting 142.00 and getting rejected.

http://i39.tinypic.com/mjbdir.gif
  • #706
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:55pm Mar 26, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting TraderJSS
Just checking, does anyone else show resistance between .7200 - .7250 on the Aud/Usd? If so, it looks like price is approaching it. Sorry I cant post a chart right now. Clockwork, is this a valid setup do you think, or is my zone incorrect? Thanks
Trader,

I have resistance there also, but a bit lower around the 0.7090 range. I also have the NZD/USD on resistance and took a short trade. Probably against my rules because there wasn't a pin bar as recommended, but I still like the resistance.

Clockwork: Awesome thread, best on FF. And I've been around here for quite a while. I find your method is giving me peace from not having to be around the charts full time, and not having to look over my shoulder when I'm in a trade. Top notch!
"60% of the time it works...every time"
  • #707
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:42pm Mar 26, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting TraderJSS
Just checking, does anyone else show resistance between .7200 - .7250 on the Aud/Usd? If so, it looks like price is approaching it. Sorry I cant post a chart right now. Clockwork, is this a valid setup do you think, or is my zone incorrect? Thanks
yes that is where i have strong resisitance from the weekly maby a tad lower as slade has said
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #708
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:04pm Mar 26, 2009 5:04pm
The rule CW highlighted a few pages back about giving your trades time and being patient would be paying off for me in this stock trade, if I'd followed it. I am very skittish going long any equity right now. Got into this using a buy stop at 19.40 on March 18, got filled at 19.04, due to the 2-day pin off a flip zone and a weekly williams indicator I use showing heavy bullish divergence. It shot up the first day and then began to retrace a bit. I had my stop at B/E for the first couple days but after the big rally from the Geithner press conference failed to make it go up at all, I tightened the stop up to 19.81, inside the PPZ. I was taken out by ten cents! Made a small profit, sure, but look at it now. I should have left my stop at B/E or 18.40 or even where it was initially. That's what I think now anyway.
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  • #709
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:06pm Mar 26, 2009 5:06pm
Nice, Im glad we are all on the same page watching. Thanks for the reponse Slade and whitegoodman.

Quoting whitegoodman
yes that is where i have strong resisitance from the weekly maby a tad lower as slade has said
  • #710
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:41pm Mar 26, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
The rule CW highlighted a few pages back about giving your trades time and being patient would be paying off for me in this stock trade, if I'd followed it....
If I had a dollar for every time I did that exact thing.....ugh. But don't worry mate, it's all part of the learning process. It's hard to let your trades run, I know....but it's what makes the difference in my opinion.

CW
  • #711
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:43pm Mar 26, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting TraderJSS
Just checking, does anyone else show resistance between .7200 - .7250 on the Aud/Usd? If so, it looks like price is approaching it. Sorry I cant post a chart right now. Clockwork, is this a valid setup do you think, or is my zone incorrect? Thanks
Yes, that's an area I would be very interested in.

I have it as a 50 pip zone from .72-.7250
  • #712
  • Mar 26, 2009 6:55pm Mar 26, 2009 6:55pm
Before I get into a lot of exit strategy charts, I want to write about something that is probably more important than the actually "strategy" itself. In fact, I am going to wait a little while before posting more charts, because I really want this part to sink in. I really want you to think about this.

The biggest "breakthrough" will be on the psychological side for 99% of you.

When you are in a trade, do you take profit as soon as possible? Most people do, yet they are incredibly patient with losses. It needs to be the other way around. Here's a scenario I want you to think about:

A while back, I shorted the USD/SGD pair. (Singapore Dollar) My trade took it's time to go in my favor. In fact, it got me in, then went against me for two days. I could have got out with a small loss, and "cut my losses short". However, I trusted my analysis and let it ride. (Until my stop gets taken out - the analysis still stands. Period.)

I woke up on day three with an extra 270 or so pips in my account. At this point, I moved stops to break even. I waited, and waited. In not so many words, I ended up moving my stops every few days, and got about 500 pips. It was a nice trade, and gained me something like a 4.5% return.

Here's the question I want you to ponder.....

At one point I was up roughly 700 pips. Did I "piss away" 200 pips? Or did being flexible and patient allow me to bank 500? I know my answer to that question.

Could I have been stopped out at break even earlier? You bet I could have, in fact...it's happened a few times. Guess what? I survived the experience. You would too.

I think that if you focus on those extra 200 pips, you will try to "top tick and bottom pick" the market, which is a fool's game at the very least. You have to go with the flow.....relax, we aren't here to work after all.

CW
  • #713
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:30pm Mar 26, 2009 7:30pm
I apologize CW if this question/chart breaks the flow of the conversation.

Just starting out on demo and I am following your and James16 threads as my guidebooks.

Can anyone chime in and let me know if I'm on the right track here, with my areas marked on the Weekly chart?

Thanks in advance.
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  • #714
  • Mar 26, 2009 9:00pm Mar 26, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting uBERpIP
I apologize CW if this question/chart breaks the flow of the conversation.

Just starting out on demo and I am following your and James16 threads as my guidebooks.

Can anyone chime in and let me know if I'm on the right track here, with my areas marked on the Weekly chart?

Thanks in advance.
That top line needs to be at 1.30

It's so strong, that I have a standing order 100 pips above it, and it has been there for months now. ;-)
  • #715
  • Mar 26, 2009 9:35pm Mar 26, 2009 9:35pm
still waiting for something on the eurjpy to short... looks like it may be 'rolling over' so to speak
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #716
  • Mar 26, 2009 10:10pm Mar 26, 2009 10:10pm
Quote
That top line needs to be at 1.30

It's so strong, that I have a standing order 100 pips above it, and it has been there for months now. ;-)
LOL.....yes....I guess I did "forget" to put the top line layer on that cake.

Just to make sure....are you saying that it should be an additional area, or replacing the current zone I marked as the top?

On a personal note.....I think I saw in a post you're from Columbus...if that's Columbus, Ohio....I'll have to take your advice under caution as I'm a Miami Hurricane.

My only trip to Columbus was on business, and I got "trapped" in the parking garage of the downtown mall, because they started a BBQ and Jazz festival while I was inside. All the roads were blocked off.

Great time...and great little downtown microbrew area.

Thanks again!
  • #717
  • Mar 26, 2009 10:53pm Mar 26, 2009 10:53pm
Hey Clockwork, great post. Just to make sure when you are talking about letting a trade run, this is only in reference to the trend trades we take correct? In a countertrend trade we like to take our profits and run at the first minor hurdle. Please correct me if Im wrong. Thanks

Quoting clockwork71
Before I get into a lot of exit strategy charts, I want to write about something that is probably more important than the actually "strategy" itself. In fact, I am going to wait a little while before posting more charts, because I really want this part to sink in. I really want you to think about this.

The biggest "breakthrough" will be on the psychological side for 99% of you.

When you are in a trade, do you take profit as soon as possible? Most people do, yet they are incredibly patient with losses. It needs to be the other way...
  • #718
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:25am Mar 27, 2009 3:25am
Nice breakout from hourly pins happening here at minor support, in the direction of the major trend, IMHO. ALso coincides with the a bounce off S1 pivot and 50% Fib retracement.

What do you guys think?

VM
Rookie trader
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"Stay Sharp and Keep Learning!" - VM
  • #719
  • Mar 27, 2009 4:52am Mar 27, 2009 4:52am
Quoting volatilemonk
Nice breakout from hourly pins happening here at minor support, in the direction of the major trend, IMHO. ALso coincides with the a bounce off S1 pivot and 50% Fib retracement.

What do you guys think?

VM
Rookie trader
Broke above the pin bar, 30 pips up into round number resistance of 0.79 thus far. Nice paper profit, could exit partial here or take the 30 pips and move the stop loss to break-even.

I guess if this happened on daily bars, the profits would be much greater. Developing the patience to wait for the signal is the key for me...
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"Stay Sharp and Keep Learning!" - VM
  • #720
  • Mar 27, 2009 5:20am Mar 27, 2009 5:20am
hmmm nice eurjpy short took some profit off the table when the spike just finished then for 230pips... gonna let the other half run unless i see some bullish PA off that 131ish area i have as S/R....

thanks CW, i feel like im learning how to trade a bit better now, psycholigically
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
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