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Nanningbob 60x90 EA

  • #1,581
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:27pm Mar 25, 2009 8:27pm
DJM,

This EA provides a very good spike indicator, probably better than most. When the action hits your stop you know you've got a spike! Until then there's no spike.

Seriously tho, because this is a martingale system we're hoping to profit from a move to the top traded level and potentially some distance above that level before a retrace. The stop loss is there to stop things getting out of hand but the strategy is inherently risky because of martingale and because it's contrarian. If we had a 'spike detector' that took you out of a trade earlier than the stop then this would probably kill profitability as many of the final level trades would likely be killed at a loss just before retrace. This is what happens when the stoploss is moved too low, profitability falls off.

I don't think the answer is in looking for an indicator to predict a spike but more in doing what one can to be trading at the right time on fundamentals (as NanningBob says). After that the SL is the answer.

As usual I advocate extensive testing to help understand the probabilities involved. This EA is about saying at an entry level 'I think it's probable a retrace is about to occur'. Can't understand how anyone is considering this EA without extensive back testing to understand the probabilities. My opinion forward testing alone is useless until you've being doing it for a substantial number of trades in a range of market conditions.

cheers
Knoxy
Aspice, officio fungeris sine spe honoris amplioris
  • #1,582
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:01pm Mar 25, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting Knoxy
DJM,

This EA provides a very good spike indicator, probably better than most. When the action hits your stop you know you've got a spike! Until then there's no spike.

Seriously tho, because this is a martingale system we're hoping to profit from a move to the top traded level and potentially some distance above that level before a retrace. The stop loss is there to stop things getting out of hand but the strategy is inherently risky because of martingale and because it's contrarian. If we had a 'spike detector' that took you out of a trade earlier...
What I want is not an indicator but if the bar is moving too fast it just closes open orders and does not try to open on the way up. I’m not interested in SL I’m interested in stopping everything if the movement is too fast. Like the EUR/USD last week.

IF it has too much speed in its climb then I don’t want it even trading.

The problem is news is hitting every were and now some of it is turning into bombs.

But if you are at first or second level and its just starts running away I just want it to get out and not trade until other criteria is met (be it human intervention or a wait till it comes back to the center MA.

The SL is for extended trends

Is this Idea so bad daddy
the markets moving, time to get in!
  • #1,583
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:07pm Mar 25, 2009 9:07pm
i just opened a small account with LiteForex. We'll see how it goes...
change the future, not the past
  • #1,584
  • Mar 25, 2009 9:31pm Mar 25, 2009 9:31pm
i see what your saying about spikes but i find the most money is to be made off quick spikes as they often retrace back after the initial spike...

i find the worst case is the ones that linger for 2 days in a trade and hence the MA creeps up and then theres no retrace needed to get back to MA... those are the ones that i foten close out early... I usually give a pair about a day and a half to close out otherwise i close out myself (generally)
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,585
  • Mar 25, 2009 11:24pm Mar 25, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting dmjservices
What I want is not an indicator but if the bar is moving too fast it just closes open orders and does not try to open on the way up.

My idea is that if the time gap between two level trades can be controlled (and adjustable), then we can avoid the spike trade happening immediately after the previous level. This should be doable for a programmer..Again, after the spike how to get the EA to work and at what levels is the question.
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #1,586
  • Mar 26, 2009 12:45am Mar 26, 2009 12:45am
I agree with WhiteGoodman, spikes are not the problem as long as you have the proper range. The problem is these trends that go on for a day or two without a retracement. You are not going to win every trade. That's why you have the stop/loss for your personal level of risk.

What we need to do is study the econometric statistics to determine an acceptable probability of a retracement. Over a given period of historical data, how many times does the currency retrace X pips on the 5minTF, 15mTF, 30mTF, 1hrTF? At what probability 60%, 70%, or 80% is the highest return? If we optimize the settings for each pair, we can make plenty of profits even with the occasional stop loss. And of course, following Bob's fundamental rules for the EA.

Bob has done great work creating a very flexible EA and in gathering the historical daily highs for all the currency pairs. We need to take the statistics to another level by having an actuary/statistician help us with determining the highest probabilities of retracement on each time frame for all pairs. Here's an example: High/Low Range, Open/Close Change, Positive/Negative Change.

Do you have any other values that you think should be calculated? From your testing and live trading, what would you want to know? Lenoxer has offered to contact an actuary that he knows to help us generate the stats. Please chime in.

Thanks,
Field
  • #1,587
  • Mar 26, 2009 12:53am Mar 26, 2009 12:53am
Lenoxer,this is not really a job for an actuary,but for an econometrician or statistician with specialization in time series.
I still dont understand what's the time series problem to solve here.Can someone explain to me?
  • #1,588
  • Mar 26, 2009 12:58am Mar 26, 2009 12:58am
hmmm seems though the NZD gathered some strength today, anyone know what the announcement was a couple of hours ago?....

all have closed for a nice TP on level 3 except my audnzd which was 4 pips from opening another level which would have by now taken profit... we will see how this turns out... theres a nice pin bar so im gonna stick it out as I expect a retrace... or i may just close for a loss, I shall see when i get home from work in the next hour
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,589
  • Mar 26, 2009 2:45am Mar 26, 2009 2:45am
Quoting nanningbob
I downloaded them but I could not make the EA work on their platform. Did you make any modifications??
Sorry for the late reply. Fxopen have nano lot with there micro account but with micro or normal account they always use 0.1 lot, never 0.01.
If you want simulate a micro account with nano lot and a 100$ deposit, you must create a 10000$ demo account and use 0.1 lot.

I use only EurAud5m GbpGpy5m EurChf5m and AudCad1h. all with 4L EA.

Let me know if you have another probleme with FxOpen demo.
  • #1,590
  • Mar 26, 2009 3:12am Mar 26, 2009 3:12am
Dear Xristianos,

Thanks. I agree with you. My thinking is: this particular actuarial guy comes reasonably OK $-wise and he's excellent to build the mechanism which will be able to generate the stats. After that, I'd indeed like to find a statitician. I am not a math person and I need to explain to my guy what sort of numbers I want to produce. So, what numbers do I want to produce?

Lenoxer
  • #1,591
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:43am Mar 26, 2009 4:43am
Lenoxer,

Not sure what you're trying to do, but do you get the free download currency trader magazine? They often take a currency pair and look at characteristics that make it unique. Recent examples include study of majors to look at performance after inside days when the daily close in upper 20% of range against if lower 20% of range. I've been getting the mag for 4 y and to be honest don't get much out of the stats articles.

I can help out with the maths and stats if you want. As an engineer have to be strong on maths.

Knoxy
Aspice, officio fungeris sine spe honoris amplioris
  • #1,592
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:48am Mar 26, 2009 4:48am
Quoting newera
Here's the reason why, UK Bond Auction fails.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=160125

885 pips move from high to low for the day. Finally got a retracement for a profit. But it was looking bad for a while.
How many levels are you trading to survive a 885 pip move? I've lost too much money and I don't have the stomach for this anymore.
  • #1,593
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:53am Mar 26, 2009 4:53am
Quoting jthomas71
How many levels are you trading to survive a 885 pip move? I've lost too much money and I don't have the stomach for this anymore.
well i missed the first 275pips of the move downwards and took a lot of TP's as the gbpnzd bounced around
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,594
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:19am Mar 26, 2009 5:19am
Quoting newera
I agree with WhiteGoodman, spikes are not the problem as long as you have the proper range....
Newera,
Here's a value I think would be helpful to calculate. Maximum movement in one direction before x number of pips retracement.
  • #1,595
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:33am Mar 26, 2009 5:33am
Quoting Toothman
Newera,
Here's a value I think would be helpful to calculate. Maximum movement in one direction before x number of pips retracement.
if we could get that data easily, wow, would revolutionise settings
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,596
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:08am Mar 26, 2009 7:08am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Bob and programmers,
Short of being big and using Goldman, etc. smaller funds that I know use Oanda and Interactive Brokers. No one that I know uses IBFX.
(...)
Hence, the sooner one can graduate from IBFX the better. Does the present MT4 EA work at Oanda or IB? If not, it would seem prudent to adapt the EA to those brokerages in the form of an API which could work across multiple, varied, and more professional interfaces.
Quoting whitegoodman
IBFX offer nano's... there spreads are shitty (...)
and yeh once i hit $10,000 im over to MBT... i suggest we all do the same as long as they live up to the hype
Too bad that also MBT doesn't accept MT4 live accounts... from their site:
"Not accepting Metatrader Live Accounts at this time"

so... besides IBFX are there other reliable brokers where you can run this ea?
  • #1,597
  • Mar 26, 2009 7:11am Mar 26, 2009 7:11am
Quoting dj808
Too bad that also MBT doesn't accept MT4 live accounts... from their site:
"Not accepting Metatrader Live Accounts at this time"

so... besides IBFX are there other reliable brokers where you can run this ea?
yes but mbt is testing their mt4 platform atm... and hopefully me getting $10k will coincide with their mt4 release (glitch free)
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,598
  • Mar 26, 2009 8:19am Mar 26, 2009 8:19am
I have noticed the 60x90 ea dosen't do such a good job at running trends. I put this ea together from 2 of Bob's. Thanks Bob hope you don't mind It runs trends. Dosen't work too good when the market vasilates. Anyway I'm still working on it, let me know what you think and if anyone knows some code I'd like to ask a few questions... Thanks. This only works on USD/JPY 15 minutes
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 USD_JPY_15Min_V6.0Test.ex4   15 KB | 307 downloads
  • #1,599
  • Mar 26, 2009 8:45am Mar 26, 2009 8:45am
Here is my thought... I'm trying to get the 60 x 90 to "auto switch" from default mode to this "trend" mode based on current pip spread. Any thoughts ??
  • #1,600
  • Mar 26, 2009 8:59am Mar 26, 2009 8:59am
Quoting dj808
Too bad that also MBT doesn't accept MT4 live accounts... from their site:
"Not accepting Metatrader Live Accounts at this time"

so... besides IBFX are there other reliable brokers where you can run this ea?
I am using FXDD doing ok; also opened acc with Go Markets but not funded yet
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