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Nanningbob 60x90 EA

  • #1,521
  • Mar 22, 2009 6:10pm Mar 22, 2009 6:10pm
@137
Very interesting! What is the floating P/L now? You seem to trade with terminal other than ibfx as I see sgdjpy: what is your broker? Can you post the Detailed Statement? If html format presents private info, copy into Excel format, delete such info, and post? Many thanks in advance.RS


Quoting 137
-all pairs traded on M5

-pairs i'm trading with 60x90:

eurchf, usdcad, eurgbp,eurcad

-pairs i'm trading with 40x60:

chfjpy, audcad, audchf, cadchf, cadjpy, sgdjpy, audusd, audjpy

-i intervened manually once when a third level was reached. instead of letting the trade run, i took profit as soon as i had some

-i've been leaving trades open over the weekend

-good luck!
  • #1,522
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:08pm Mar 22, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting newera
What about Geithner's Bank Bailout Plan? That's supposed to be announced early this week. I realize it's just a proposal but it's going to carry a lot of weight for the banks and for him personally.
I think he was slated to talk on tue. but now it looks like he"ll be speaking on mon.
  • #1,523
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:21pm Mar 22, 2009 7:21pm
i heard 8.45am in the US for the announcement... so for us in Sydney i think its 11.45pm...

a good way to trade it, well the way i will is let it spike for 15mins or so then turn it back on... spikes usually have retraces before it goes back on its way...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,524
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:54pm Mar 22, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting qz10cq
For all u guys having trouble running this on a 5-digit broker. Don't, download a broker that is 4-digit.

Well last week for this ea was death. Been running this ea default 60x90 3l and no recovery .1 lots on 6 pairs. In 3 weeks I had a 3000 demo go to over 10,000 only to margin out last week. Had a great profit week with a 7 long semi-martingale system and will be adjusting this ea to reflect those numbers. So this week I'm playing this ea as a 36/54 with a sl of 180. Will keep the thread informed, thanks nanningbob....Dan...
Actually no, if you had not played the two interest rates stories you would have stayed out of trouble. That is one of my rules. Also if you were trading live you wouldnt let a 10,000 account go to zero and margin out, you would have closed the trades. Or you are playing too big of lots. I survived last week with a live 300 dollar account so if you follow the rules and use common sense, reasonable MM, this would never have happened.
  • #1,525
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:03pm Mar 22, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting dmjservices
so don't trade USD tuesday. check
EUR/USD there's talk of a strong long trend so no more EUR/USD check

What these analysis are not telling you is the Euro is going to play the same game as the USA and try to use devalueation/inflation to recover from this recession. They have the same problem as we do, property overvalued, banks having tons of bad loans and inflating our way out is the only answer to this problem. In other words they will eventually do something to bring their value down also. I do not expect the predicted inflation/devalueation to happen until a recovery starts, then you will see this. People will sell off their dollar holdings and jump back into other investments but they wont do that until there is a recovery somewhere. The USA will then have to start raising interest rates and increase taxes to take the extra money off the market. Basic economic theory of the day.
  • #1,526
  • Edited 8:23pm Mar 22, 2009 8:13pm | Edited 8:23pm
Quoting Pip Parade
Had a similar experience. My 1st demo went from $10,000 to $18,000 but when left alone it margined out last week. All in less than 30 days. Who needs the amusement park when you can ride the 4x rollercoaster.

Lots of potential here ... to go either direction. Would love to trade this EA confidentally but I've got a few wounds to lick first.
But we dont leave it alone, it was never designed to be left alone. Noone in their right mind would watch a 18000 account go to zero. I dont know anyone that trades that way. Why would you not close out the trades at 17,000 or 16,000? This makes absolutely no sense what ever. Do you go long on the euro and then see price drop 2000 points and let the trade go on. No, you close it out. So you are telling us you would trade this way???? That is why demo trading/backtest gives you false results, you dont trade like you would live. If you want a real indication of what this system would do, you would put 300 bucks in a account and trade .01 and then you would trade it in real time. You would then not trade interest rate news and close out trades when they got out of hand. If you had the SL on you wouldnt have lost the funds either or your playing with such large lots you guaranteed yourself a wipeout. So if you are going to report results, report according to the rules of the system. I really dislike guys who violate the rules and then report it doesnt work. Yes the system does work, if you dont violate the rules and follow your SL and MM you wouldnt have wiped out the account. Last week I tried to trade my way out of the EUR/CHF trade. I still took a loss but it was small, less than 50 bucks. I didnt let it run until it cleaned out my account, Who in the world would trade this way, do you really trade like this?? Well, I had my say.
  • #1,527
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:16pm Mar 22, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting newera
What about Geithner's Bank Bailout Plan? That's supposed to be announced early this week. I realize it's just a proposal but it's going to carry a lot of weight for the banks and for him personally.
Usually proposals dont move the market much unless they come out of the blue with some crazy idea. If the guy proposes a bailout plan it still has to go through congress with all sorts of changes before it is enacted. Now if he comes out and says, were bankrupt and have no hope then I wouldnt want to be in the market. Talk is cheap but when the proposal becomes law that is when the markets react.
  • #1,528
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:40pm Mar 22, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting nanningbob
But we dont leave it alone, it was never designed to be left alone. Noone in their right mind would watch a 18000 account go to zero. I dont know anyone that trades that way. Why would you not close out the trades at 17,000 or 16,000? This makes absolutely no sense what ever. Do you go long on the euro and then see price drop 2000 points and let the trade go on. No, you close it out. So you are telling us you would trade this way???? That is why demo trading/backtest gives you false results, you dont trade like you would live. If you want a real...
nanningbob,

While I agree 100% that no one would let a $18,000 account go to zero...

If manually closing trades out after x dollar losses is part of the system, then why not code the EA to do that? In other words, if the EA is programmed to allow an $18k loss, why not change it so it closes after a $50 loss (or wherever you're stopping out).

Hope I made sense. I'm sleepy.
  • #1,529
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:48pm Mar 22, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting metalhead
nanningbob,

While I agree 100% that no one would let a $18,000 account go to zero...

If manually closing trades out after x dollar losses is part of the system, then why not code the EA to do that? In other words, if the EA is programmed to allow an $18k loss, why not change it so it closes after a $50 loss (or wherever you're stopping out).

Hope I made sense. I'm sleepy.
Not every 50$ loss is the same. This system does take some trader discretion... so many people are just letting it run 24/6, not closing out trades, letting it run and take trades all over the place. Honesty.. its reckless.
  • #1,530
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:58pm Mar 22, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting nanningbob
But we dont leave it alone, it was never designed to be left alone. Noone in their right mind would watch a 18000 account go to zero. I dont know anyone that trades that way.
Some people do trade that way. It's called double or nothing MM.
  • #1,531
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:33pm Mar 22, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting metalhead
nanningbob,

While I agree 100% that no one would let a $18,000 account go to zero...

If manually closing trades out after x dollar losses is part of the system, then why not code the EA to do that? In other words, if the EA is programmed to allow an $18k loss, why not change it so it closes after a $50 loss (or wherever you're stopping out).

Hope I made sense. I'm sleepy.
im pretty sure there is already a feature in the EA for a max loss... but the thing is people should use disgression with good knowledge of PA, S+R and some fundamental...

for example if i see a nice pin bar off support im not gonna close out my long positions because i expect it to go up... this is a semi-auto EA
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,532
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:35pm Mar 22, 2009 10:35pm
Quoting metalhead
nanningbob,

While I agree 100% that no one would let a $18,000 account go to zero...

If manually closing trades out after x dollar losses is part of the system, then why not code the EA to do that? In other words, if the EA is programmed to allow an $18k loss, why not change it so it closes after a $50 loss (or wherever you're stopping out).

Hope I made sense. I'm sleepy.
But we do have a SL in the program. If he cleaned out 18000 account using our SL then his lots were way too high. He also probably ran it over the weekend which is a killer with the gaps. It is like I never said these things. In reality I almost never hit my stop loss because I have traded out or closed before it got there. The problem with a hard close is you are limiting the retracement. I mean you can do the same thing by putting a 400 or 300 SL. I am testing a 300 SL with 2 levels and betting there are enough profits to win over the occasional SL. I keep the SL loss very small this way. So far so good but have not tested it long enough to come up with a conclusion.

I want my system tested and I want input but we already know you will damage your account if you keep it running without closing for certain events. I guess most will need to learn this the hard way. There is no Holy Grail but there are reasonable trading systems that will win most of the time if you follow a disciplined path. What is great about this is you only have a couple of rules to follow and you will eliminate 80-90% of the losing situations. The rest you trade out or take a SL. The Eur/Chf trade last week and the Aud/Nzd trade of January should finalize to us once and for all to really respect the intererst rate change days. Both of those were followed with news stories that sent the currencies flying. I hope lesson learned at some point.
  • #1,533
  • Edited 10:56pm Mar 22, 2009 10:42pm | Edited 10:56pm
Here is a summary of Geither's plan.

"Mr. Geithner's three-pronged program, which will be unveiled Monday, envisions the creation of a series of public-private investments to soak up $500 billion, and maybe as much as $1 trillion, in troubled loans and securities at the heart of the financial crisis. To encourage investors to buy those assets, the U.S. government will offer lucrative subsidies and shoulder much of the risk.
Targeting mortgages that banks no longer want to hold, the Treasury and the FDIC will provide financing to buyers. The FDIC will auction off pools of loans that a bank wants to sell and will become a co-owner by forming a partnership with the highest bidder.
The partnership will then raise FDIC-guaranteed debt to finance a portion of the purchase price, with the Treasury willing to kick in between 50% and 80% of the equity needed to buy the assets. The Treasury will be an equal investor in the partnerships."

When this is done you force inflation by flooding the market with money, everything increases in price, the loans now become viable again because everything goes up. The investor gets his money and the govt. gets its money back from the bailout and the tax payer is saved. Then we get to deal with the next disastor, runaway inflation. That is solved by raising interest rates, will we see 18-20% like we did during the Carter years, and increase taxes to get money back out of the market place. Then someone will run for president condemning tax and spend government policies and preach balanced budgets. Decrease Govt. and increase private investment and TaDa we will have Reagan 2. I am a prophet, ahhhhhhhhhhh ........... what goes around comes around.
  • #1,534
  • Mar 23, 2009 3:23am Mar 23, 2009 3:23am
Quoting nanningbob
Actually no, if you had not played the two interest rates stories you would have stayed out of trouble. That is one of my rules. Also if you were trading live you wouldnt let a 10,000 account go to zero and margin out, you would have closed the trades. Or you are playing too big of lots. I survived last week with a live 300 dollar account so if you follow the rules and use common sense, reasonable MM, this would never have happened.
Yeah Bob your are correct. I am playing with too big of lots (.1), I would not have been in trades when interest rate stories came out and would never let a 10,000 account margin out. I should be trading this as if it was live. Was hoping defaults would be a winner without me having to interferring with the ea.
  • #1,535
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:19am Mar 23, 2009 4:19am
once we start to get out of this mess the USD will be the biggest short ive ever seen... too much printing of money in such a short time... lock in these low rates if you have a mortgage for as long as you can
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #1,536
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:37am Mar 23, 2009 4:37am
Quoting whitegoodman
once we start to get out of this mess the USD will be the biggest short ive ever seen... too much printing of money in such a short time... lock in these low rates if you have a mortgage for as long as you can
Yes but every major currency is playing this game. The Japanese have been doing this for a decade without much success, problems of an export economy. It is why I dont worry about the Chinese, until they develop an all around economy at home they are not the threat many people think they are. The USA will recover first because they are the most aggressive and the Europeans will follow suit. Then the price of oil will come into play again as demand goes up. Dont you just love trying to figure this all out. HEY BOB WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE EA????
  • #1,537
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:56pm Mar 23, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting nanningbob
Noone in their right mind would watch a 18000 account go to zero. ... Well, I had my say.
Bob, that's why I did this in a Demo ...

It is also one of the ways I test any new program, to see what it will do if it is allowed to do what it can. Now I know more than I did before.

Clearly the news has an impact, and sometimes a huge one, on the 4x world. Unfortunately the 2 largest markets kick in while I'm sound asleep. Life in the Pacific Time Zone does that to a guy. So as much as I respect the need to monitor the EA I'm forced to try to find the best way to blend that with a good night's sleep. Hence lots of "blind" testing.

Add to that the facts that:
......a) I'm not going to catch all the significant news articles and
......b) Even when I do, I'm not always gonna correctly predict the directional impact
Then the value of a quality EA becomes very clear to me.

Don't get me wrong. This EA is absolutely wonderful. The 80% initial return was a rush. Unfortunately this "benefited" from sloppy MM and an ideal time in the market. Now I know.

I appreciate your work here and willingness to share. I've read through much of the thread and am still learning.

Like I said in #1516 I would love to trade it confidently. I'm simply working through the introduction period to see how it may best meet my needs.

  • #1,538
  • Mar 23, 2009 5:33pm Mar 23, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting Pip Parade
Bob, that's why I did this in a Demo ...

It is also one of the ways I test any new program, to see what it will do if it is allowed to do what it can. Now I know more than I did before.

Clearly the news has an impact, and sometimes a huge one, on the 4x world. Unfortunately the 2 largest markets kick in while I'm sound asleep. Life in the Pacific Time Zone does that to a guy. So as much as I respect the need to monitor the EA I'm forced to try to find the best way to blend that with a good night's sleep. Hence lots of "blind" testing.

Add...
Sorry, I probably shouldnt have reacted so strongly.
  • #1,539
  • Mar 24, 2009 12:05am Mar 24, 2009 12:05am
I've mentioned performing details statistics on price before. Maybe someone out there knows someone that has actuarial or econometric statistical experience that can guide us. Here's what I've done so far. As an example, I've taken the 60 minute historical data for GBP/NZD we are given the Open, High, Low, Close and Volume. We could use any pair, but I wanted to establish the rules/guidelines of how and what needed to be calculated. So far, I have the following values:

High Low Range
Open Close Change
Change from Previous Candle
Cummulative Change

There may be others that's what I need help with from the group. In Excel, I calculated the number of times the pair had a price change of +/- X pips from the previous candle. Then, calculated the total number of times and percentage of retracements. See image below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GpbNzd60m.png Size: 25 KB
  • #1,540
  • Mar 24, 2009 12:10am Mar 24, 2009 12:10am
Next, I used a open source econometric statistics program to plot multiple graphs, etc. I've posted those images below. This can be done for any pair. Question is, how can we use this information to best adjust the EA for maximum probability of retracement?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GpbNzd60mHighLowRange.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GpbNzd60mRangeMeanPlot.png Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GpbNzd60mRelativeFrequency.png Size: 10 KB
Attached Images
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