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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #166,801
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:27am Mar 22, 2009 7:27am
Quoting dialpips
how do manage to put two quotes in one reply? thanks.
copy the quote then paste.
  • #166,802
  • Edited 8:19am Mar 22, 2009 7:44am | Edited 8:19am
For past several weeks the GJ been battling the upper and lower zone..However, the PA managed to stay on the bullish trend.

TA:

1. Overall Red Daily TL is broken to the upside
2. Last candle is above the Blue Daily Gann
3. The BB Macd is still above the blue bollinger band(bullish atm)
4. The yellow linear regression line is heading upward

I feel the overall battle will be bullish after breaking thru the bullish zone.

My TP set on the fib levels..

Trade the charts...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily gj.gif Size: 36 KB
[
  • #166,803
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:33am Mar 22, 2009 8:33am
Been reading this thread with some interest over the past few days hoping to gain some insight into the likely direction of this pair but there seems to be an almost equal split between longs and shorts.

I'm bearish on this pair for a number of reasons - not least the attached chart, but also because the UK economy is going to hell in a handcart.

Why would anyone buy the pound ATM???

Stochs are OB.

JMO but what do I know???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #166,804
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:43am Mar 22, 2009 8:43am
Quoting GodfreyH
Cable:

Cable closed the week inconclusively, it sort of just tapered off after the prior two strong updays....
godfrey,

thanks for the explanation about the divergence earlier. the divergence you are looking @ may play out.

but i see more to the upside. the chance of breaking the tl is very strong.
looking @ 1 hr chart, we had 5 waves advance (impulse) last week is indicating there are buyers in the market. i'm not sure if the advance is completed (doubtful).

if what i'm looking @ is correct then i would expect to have a very powerful move to the upside, and may drag geppy along with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu _1hr_2009_2.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #166,805
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:45am Mar 22, 2009 8:45am
welcome back q,

how was your trip over the weekend?

  • #166,806
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:54am Mar 22, 2009 8:54am
Quoting pkimnyc
godfrey,

thanks for the explanation about the divergence earlier. the divergence you are looking @ may play out.

but i see more to the upside. the chance of breaking the tl is very strong.
looking @ 1 hr chart, we had 5 waves advance (impulse) last week is indicating there are buyers in the market. i'm not sure if the advance is completed (doubtful).

if what i'm looking @ is correct then i would expect to have a very powerful move to the upside, and may drag geppy along with it.
My view of Cable next week - The chart says it all but I'll be going short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.jpg Size: 160 KB
  • #166,807
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:56am Mar 22, 2009 8:56am
Quoting stewrigh
My view of Cable next week - The chart says it all but I'll be going short.

Attachment
time will tell my friend.

  • #166,808
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:58am Mar 22, 2009 8:58am
Quoting pkimnyc
time will tell my friend.

Yep - Don't you just love 4X
  • #166,809
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:30am Mar 22, 2009 9:30am
I see calls of 145 and higher and calls for 130 and lower for next week

guys and girls ... ever heard of a ranging market ?

here is an 8 hour chart for last 20 days. It shows very clearly there are sellers at 140 and buyers at 135 ....

so next time we hit 140 ( liekly if it does happen may well be in asia today) i will be looking to see if those those sellers are still there.

reality is indicators do not really mean anything .. some simple candle patterns and volume is all one needs to tell you the story and right now we may test 140 , however the volume for the 8 hours in US session was one of the lowest US sessions we have had in a while and lower by about 1.3 than the average of the prior 2 us session . This suggests to me there are no pros in this up move. Unless the volume increases on the up moves I would suggest 140 is going to be a barrier and a nice sell zone

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #166,810
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:45am Mar 22, 2009 9:45am
Quoting malcolmb14
I see calls of 145 and higher and calls for 130 and lower for next week

guys and girls ... ever heard of a ranging market ?

here is an 8 hour chart for last 20 days. It shows very clearly there are sellers at 140 and buyers at 135 ....

so next time we hit 140 ( liekly if it does happen may well be in asia today) i will be looking to see if those those sellers are still there.

reality is indicators do not really mean anything .. some simple candle patterns and volume is all one needs to tell you the story and right now we may test 140 ,...
Malcolm,

Really respect your opinion, but I'm not sure I agree with your statement about indicators.

I thought RSI and Stochs ONLY worked in ranging markets and if you look at my charts they seem to be a pretty good predictor of price .
  • #166,811
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:03am Mar 22, 2009 10:03am
Het Malcomb, when you say the last up move was on low volume, are you meaning the last volume bar of 123k when compared to the "higher" volume bars of 250k & 275K?

It seems to be in the middle, not quite low and not quite high- "mid" volume if you will. By looking at your chart, it almost looks like a 4 period cycle.

So how do you determine if its a low volume move? just your experience or do you have a set of rules to go by.. ie 50% of the last big volume bar?

Thanks for your insight

cheers
  • #166,812
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:13am Mar 22, 2009 10:13am
I see 141.9 as the most relevant price now.If it's broken, it would shoot up like hell!!
  • #166,813
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:02am Mar 22, 2009 11:02am
Quoting stewrigh
Malcolm,

Really respect your opinion, but I'm not sure I agree with your statement about indicators.

I thought RSI and Stochs ONLY worked in ranging markets and if you look at my charts they seem to be a pretty good predictor of price .

in a sideways market they works well .....

however I used to be a big advocate of rsi and since using simple price action and volume spread analysis rarely look at indicators now , only to look for divergences. Wish I had paid more attention to volume earlier in my trading career I would not be posting in here. I would be retired cruising the Caribbean on my mega yacht ( lol we can all dream)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #166,814
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:05am Mar 22, 2009 11:05am
Quoting malcolmb14
in a sideways market they works well .....

however I used to be a big advocate of rsi and since using simple price action and volume spread analysis rarely look at indicators now , only to look for divergences. Wish I had paid more attention to volume earlier in my trading career I would not be posting in here. I would be retired cruising the Caribbean on my mega yacht ( lol we can all dream)
I think I'm gonna have to take a look at VSA - Can u recommend somwhere.

I'll google it anyway but would appreciate your rec.
  • #166,815
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:08am Mar 22, 2009 11:08am
Quoting malcolmb14
I see calls of 145 and higher and calls for 130 and lower for next week

guys and girls ... ever heard of a ranging market ?

here is an 8 hour chart for last 20 days. It shows very clearly there are sellers at 140 and buyers at 135 ....

so next time we hit 140 ( liekly if it does happen may well be in asia today) i will be looking to see if those those sellers are still there.

reality is indicators do not really mean anything .. some simple candle patterns and volume is all one needs to tell you the story and right now we may test 140 , however...

just a bit on the last piece that u mentioned abt lack of volume....doesnt VSA state that the beginning of any up move after long time of ranging could sometimes start with low volume as all sellers have dried up by then?? just a point to discuss....
  • #166,816
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:09am Mar 22, 2009 11:09am
Quoting Cdawg
Het Malcomb, when you say the last up move was on low volume, are you meaning the last volume bar of 123k when compared to the "higher" volume bars of 250k & 275K?

It seems to be in the middle, not quite low and not quite high- "mid" volume if you will. By looking at your chart, it almost looks like a 4 period cycle.

So how do you determine if its a low volume move? just your experience or do you have a set of rules to go by.. ie 50% of the last big volume bar?

Thanks for your insight

cheers
blue vertical lines on volume bars are last three us sessions , the third volume bar is lower than than the previous 2 sessions ... so you look at volume relative to volume before.

note all the high volume bars , other than the one at 132 all the others are down bar volume or green bars at the tops of ranges ( despite what you think this is sellers hitting the market) , pros will buy on weakness and sell on strength

I think that gj is being distributed up here. It seems that way at the moment

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  • #166,817
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:17am Mar 22, 2009 11:17am
Quoting ns_karthik
just a bit on the last piece that u mentioned abt lack of volume....doesnt VSA state that the beginning of any up move after long time of ranging could sometimes start with low volume as all sellers have dried up by then?? just a point to discuss....

yes this is true but on daily we have moved form 119 top 140 and are now sideways ranging with selling volume pressure much higher than buying pressure volume over the last 20 days

if supply was being dried up it would be at a lower price I would have thought .. hence I think this may be distribution. I am fairly new to vsa my self , about 9 months so still learning , lets just see how this one plays out.

In a range what I do know is that you look for bullish volume as price moves form bottom to top of range ( expanding volume indicating that real buying is happening ) that way you can say the ragne is going to break to the upside

the chart below i have filtered the time for london and us session only .. as you can see on the up move we have declining volume , this does not support a break out at this time of top of range ... 140 and maybe even 141 may be tested , but unless we see more volume coming into the market showing real buyers

In fact the last 5 hours has been very low volume ..... side , the 6.22 k in volume on fx represents 637 million

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  • #166,818
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:33am Mar 22, 2009 11:33am
Quoting pkimnyc
godfrey,

thanks for the explanation about the divergence earlier. the divergence you are looking @ may play out.

but i see more to the upside. the chance of breaking the tl is very strong.
looking @ 1 hr chart, we had 5 waves advance (impulse) last week is indicating there are buyers in the market. i'm not sure if the advance is completed (doubtful).

if what i'm looking @ is correct then i would expect to have a very powerful move to the upside, and may drag geppy along with it.
Interesting, well that's entirely possible, the daily stoch still hasn't crossed down (it could easily run along the top), and I've seen divergencies fail.

I also don't know how the market may react to the US plan to buy up 1 trill of toxic assets. So if it gets back to the trendline, I'll observe price action there, or if I'm in a trade take some profit of the table at the trendline
  • #166,819
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:50am Mar 22, 2009 11:50am
I watched cspan friday night, thursday broadcast of the UK's treasurer getting grilled by their committee, And several of the committee were basically giving the chancelor hard time, and in rebutal the chancelor basically openly told of these few men who were in the pockets of of their bailouts as well skimming from the pie and payoffs throughout the whole downturn from certain associates, they quickly ended their questioning. I was quite amazed by the perceptions that flooded my thinking at that moment. Im not sure if the ppl of the world have a clue or not knowing exactly what happened to the finacial markets globally, but the ppl here and abroad are trying to fix the very mess their all ochestrated in in the first degree. And here we are the ppl of the world the COWS hopeful of their resolve to fix the very thing they created, Greed is a powerful thing and think not for twinkle of an eye that any of these men here or abroad are real. Every single one is corrupt to the core and if they are not they arent where they sit or they are made DEAD. This is the law that has been in affect since the beginning of man and shall remain till this world becomes ANEW. so trust not for their conspiracy strengths stretchs for thousands of years.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #166,820
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:59am Mar 22, 2009 11:59am
Quoting malcolmb14
yes this is true but on daily we have moved form 119 top 140 and are now sideways ranging with selling volume pressure much higher than buying pressure volume over the last 20 days

if supply was being dried up it would be at a lower price I would have thought .. hence I think this may be distribution. I am fairly new to vsa my self , about 9 months so still learning , lets just see how this one plays out.

In a range what I do know is that you look for bullish volume as price moves form bottom to top of range ( expanding volume indicating that...

thanks malcolm....to be honest, it doesnt look like a major slide in volume to me....looks like a slide more due to late night and end of week blues....anyway, time will tell...
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