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Silent Service Method

  • #641
  • Mar 21, 2009 9:27am Mar 21, 2009 9:27am
I'm going to have to pay more attention to these stocks . . . price action all over the place on JP Morgan . . .
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #642
  • Mar 21, 2009 10:51am Mar 21, 2009 10:51am
Quoting clockwork71
You are correct, it was based on an intera-day signal. I don't really post 1 hour stock charts because Interactive Brokers charts are so bad, and most people don't have the ability to trade off of these shorter time frames.

I use IB because it's $1 a round turn. Most people pay "$7.99 a trade". That's $15.98 round trip. It's hard to make a buck in shorter time frames that way.

Now I am waiting on HGG to give me that signal I want.....
I also use IB for all stock trading. Like their commissions, hate their charts.

Josh
  • #643
  • Mar 21, 2009 1:45pm Mar 21, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
One more thing before I run.....

Sometimes the charts show their hand well ahead of the move. This series of charts all relate to the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30. Look at these charts and see how sometimes this is pretty obvious.

If these things break short, I will be in many of them. There's a good chance a lot of people are going to be angry next week. I won't be one of them.
I agree. My stock filter has been spitting out every short ETF there is for the last couple days, e.g., small cap, big cap, fincancials, construction, energy, etc., and they all look like good candidates to buy, meaning the overall market looks like is ready to take a beating. I only trade my IRA, which means I cannot short equities, but buying these bear ETFs is a great substitute. Allows me to short the market while still going "long".
  • #644
  • Mar 21, 2009 5:38pm Mar 21, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting Verto
XLF is also in a similiar position to BAC. I have a feeling CNBC won't be a happy place to be next week.

Good. Santelli is the only one that seems to know what he's talking about anyways.
  • #645
  • Mar 21, 2009 9:26pm Mar 21, 2009 9:26pm
Very informative thread Clockwork! Thanks for all the info and by all means, do keep it coming =).

I always used S/R but you shed new light on how to use it to gain a huge edge...primarily on using the weekly charts. Before reading your thread, I always wondered who in the hell ever actually used Weekly or Monthly charts regularly to dictate their trading.

This stuff will incorporate greatly into my style of trading. I'll be checking this thread often and making posts here and there. First, I got a quick question for ya that I don't remember seeing answered:

On average, how long do you tend to stay in a trade before exiting MOST of the time? Is it a couple hours, days, or weeks?
  • #646
  • Mar 21, 2009 10:34pm Mar 21, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting nebuman213
Very informative thread Clockwork! Thanks for all the info and by all means, do keep it coming =).

I always used S/R but you shed new light on how to use it to gain a huge edge...primarily on using the weekly charts. Before reading your thread, I always wondered who in the hell ever actually used Weekly or Monthly charts regularly to dictate their trading.

This stuff will incorporate greatly into my style of trading. I'll be checking this thread often and making posts here and there. First, I got a quick question for ya that I don't remember seeing...
I find it's normally a couple of days. (on average.)
  • #647
  • Mar 22, 2009 1:49am Mar 22, 2009 1:49am
Quoting clockwork71
http://www.marketfolly.com/2008/11/d...f-trading.html

If you don't know who Dennis Gartman is, I would encourage you to read everything he says. Twice.

Here is a site that has his 16 rules of trading. I want you to read #14 every time you enter a trade. It is the biggest secret to making money trading.
Simply resplendent Chris,+

Love the way how each of these short rules tells a story of it's own.

Thnx for the reference.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #648
  • Mar 22, 2009 5:05am Mar 22, 2009 5:05am
whers these vids your doing CW? are you posting it on some site somewhere or another thread?
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #649
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:30am Mar 22, 2009 7:30am
Quoting whitegoodman
whers these vids your doing CW? are you posting it on some site somewhere or another thread?
James16 group
  • #650
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:40am Mar 22, 2009 11:40am
CW,

As far as stocks go right now, with the market the way it is, do you restrict your trading to the short side, or do you go long as well if the set up is there? In other words, what effect do the trend of the DJI, S&P 500, etc. have on your trading? Do you follow the same tactics as in forex, where you manage CT trades more tightly than trend trades?
  • #651
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:55am Mar 22, 2009 11:55am
Quoting johnnyonspot
CW,

As far as stocks go right now, with the market the way it is, do you restrict your trading to the short side, or do you go long as well if the set up is there? In other words, what effect do the trend of the DJI, S&P 500, etc. have on your trading? Do you follow the same tactics as in forex, where you manage CT trades more tightly than trend trades?

Yes, certainly. I am a little cautious going long in 99% of stocks out there. The simple solution for those of you that can't short a stock, is the inverse ETF's. (QID is an example.)

It's not that I won't go long, just that I am a lot tighter with my stops, and a little quicker to take profits. I know that someone is going to ask me "What happens if the trend changes, and you miss the big move?" Simple...there will be another entry.

CW
  • #652
  • Mar 22, 2009 6:49pm Mar 22, 2009 6:49pm
There are some traders that rely totally on fundamentals. There are some that rely totally on technical analysis. Then there are some that use both. I tend to use fundamentals only in the sense I know when not to trade.

Tonight is a great example. I have several set ups on several stock trades I am watching. I am also watching EUR/JPY as well. The Treasury Secretary is outlining his bank bailout program tomorrow morning at 8:45, which means the whole world is watching. This is one of those times where the wild card is too wild for my taste.

I am wanting to wait, and watch. As usual.

This time I will let the others lead the way. The entries and exit areas I have are clearly marked, now it is up to the others out there to tell me where they want to go. I will follow.

I hear a lot of noise about "not following the herd". This is absurd. You need the herd to push price in your direction. Trading is a lot like when I was working with my friend as a bounty hunter. You don't really want to be the first or last guy entering the house. Just like you don't want to be the first or last entering a trade. Both are dangerous.

Those of us that are patient know this, and can wait to see where we are going, so we can be in the middle of that group, with people and their orders protecting us from both sides.
  • #653
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:25pm Mar 22, 2009 7:25pm
Great thread!

I just spent the weekend going through the entire thread. Not being a "pip-watcher" is great. I know for sure I have wasted loads of time watching the pips unfold on 15 and 5 min charts when I would much rather have been out running or cycling or just lazing around the house.

This is amazing to me cos I know I have spent so much money on trading education and here on forexfactory there is a wealth of great information for free.

Thanks, Clockwork!
"Stay Sharp and Keep Learning!" - VM
  • #654
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:49pm Mar 22, 2009 9:49pm
Ok, so I just got 2 private messages about "How do I play this breakout on EUR/JPY you were waiting for?" I have 2 responses to this question:

1 - I wasn't waiting on a breakout. By the statement's very nature it shows I am trying to catch a trend change. That's not what I do. I follow. I pick my spots. I cannot stress this enough. In fact, if anything....I am looking for a short here. (If I had to pick a direction ahead of time.) Why? Because it's the overall trend. Is it so hard to imagine that something could "spook" the market. How about Tiny Tim the Treasury Secretary speaking about bank bailouts tomorrow?

2 - The attached chart shows what I believe is really happening on this chart.
Granted, it's only my analysis.....but it's how I see it. We haven't really broken out. Trades like this get people hurt. Normally those people are only looking at the shorter time frames, and the next 50 pips.
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  • #655
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:52pm Mar 22, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting clockwork71
Ok, so I just got 2 private messages about "How do I play this breakout on EUR/JPY you were waiting for?" I have 2 responses to this question:

1 - I wasn't waiting on a breakout. By the statement's very nature it shows I am trying to catch a trend change. That's not what I do. I follow. I pick my spots. I cannot stress this enough. In fact, if anything....I am looking for a short here. (If I had to pick a direction ahead of time.) Why? Because it's the overall trend. Is it so hard to imagine that something could "spook" the market. How about...
Perfect, this is what I am looking for as well. I am biased long JPY on most of the pairs as they are all at or near S&R but a lot needs to happen before I enter a trade.
  • #656
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:00pm Mar 22, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting clockwork71
Ok, so I just got 2 private messages about "How do I play this breakout on EUR/JPY you were waiting for?" I have 2 responses to this question:

1 - I wasn't waiting on a breakout. By the statement's very nature it shows I am trying to catch a trend change. That's not what I do. I follow. I pick my spots. I cannot stress this enough. In fact, if anything....I am looking for a short here. (If I had to pick a direction ahead of time.) Why? Because it's the overall trend. Is it so hard to imagine that something could "spook" the market. How about...
Cool, CW...

I would consider this a breakout if Price "hit and run" the 133.5 - 134 zone, better if we have a huge breakout and a pullback, holding the new Support zone... then I'm looking for going long... by now, my (humble) bias is shorting, waiting till tomorrow (some scary news coming?) sitting on my itching hands....

Cheers!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #657
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:31am Mar 23, 2009 12:31am
Quoting tcmm
Why have you picked the EUR/JPY? Is there any other currencies that are good to look at?

Oh come on man.
  • #658
  • Mar 23, 2009 12:46am Mar 23, 2009 12:46am
Quoting Siam
Oh come on man.
OH COME WHAT? I have been trading news releases for years. Check carefully and you see what the news can do to the other currencies that are setup. Let me give you a tip. Existing Home Sales at 10.00am EST. Watch it, can change things. Keep a Eye Baby!
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #659
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:15am Mar 23, 2009 4:15am
Hi CW

What do you think of these charts? The weekly for GBPUSD seems to be at resistance, though it does look a bit messy. If you draw the Fibs on the daily chart, it is sitting right close to a 50% retracement right now, though I didnt include that here.
I thought that was a nice engulfing candle on the 4 hourly chart but it has since been taken out. Now another bearish engulfing pattern seems to be developing, though we won't know till it is complete. Would you consider this worth looking at right now?

Thanks.

VM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Stay Sharp and Keep Learning!" - VM
  • #660
  • Mar 23, 2009 9:24am Mar 23, 2009 9:24am
Quoting volatilemonk
Hi CW

What do you think of these charts? The weekly for GBPUSD seems to be at resistance, though it does look a bit messy. If you draw the Fibs on the daily chart, it is sitting right close to a 50% retracement right now, though I didnt include that here.
I thought that was a nice engulfing candle on the 4 hourly chart but it has since been taken out. Now another bearish engulfing pattern seems to be developing, though we won't know till it is complete. Would you consider this worth looking at right now?

Thanks.

VM
You have the right area to watch....it really comes down to whether or not we get the right signal. I am watching a ton of charts right now myself, waiting. Will we get a signal today? I don't know....it's about waiting for it to show itself. It might not - that happens.

CW
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