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  • #741
  • Mar 21, 2009 10:24am Mar 21, 2009 10:24am
Quoting Angler
hi all...
and what do you mean Com' on......how many Journals are claiming 95 -100% success rates...
What gets me is how MANY new traders think 95-100% winning trades is possible and even worse NECESSARY!

You can make very GOOD if not exceptional returns trading forex with 30-40% win rates.

In my experience and the traders I know who trade for a career they FOCUS on high expectancy trades. In other words they know if they're wrong they will often have a breakeven to -10 to -12 pips. When right they will make from 5 to 50+ and by taking the OCCASSIONAL big win they are able to achieve a winning average pips of 15-30 pips per trade.

Then its pure math. Say you're wrong 60% of the time but make 20 pips on average when right and lose 10 pips when wrong

6 losses x 10 pips = 60 pips lost
4 wins x 20 pips = 80 pips profit

NET PROFIT 20 pips!

In my experience the BEST traders are rarely ever right more than 2/3 of the time and they're exceptional but the GOOD NEWS is this is totally NOT NECESSARY for the rest of us.

If you're right 45-50% of the time and can get out of losing trades QUICK and move stop to break even on trades that go your way quick so that if it reverses you lose NOTHING and hang on to the 1 out of 10 trades or maybe 2 out of 10 trades that goes 30 to 50 pips you will MAKE MONEY.

Obviously the Forex trends VERY WELL and you have a better chance or odds of catching TREND TRADES for bigger wins than trying to pick the top or bottom and do counter trend!

Just my 2 cents worth. But for new traders on here FORGET winning % and focus more on money management principles. BEFORE taking the trade try to get an idea of how many pips likely profit you will have and if its not at LEAST 2 times more than you risk DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE!!
  • #742
  • Edited 10:58am Mar 21, 2009 10:36am | Edited 10:58am
yes, my master is closing orders with stop/loss average 60-80% of orders everyday, although many are closed at b/e when in profit & change s/l to 0...

he still gets about 10pips a day by almost 10 orders (average 1pip profit and 1pip broker spread? faint)

I guess accepting a tight s/l being hit is one first/big step moving forward.

could you explain more (maybe a detail example) on getting more from a t/p than from a s/l?
how do we know if one direction is more likely to move more distance than the other? I guess you're taking S/R, price over-buy/sell, and overall trends into considerations?

I am thinking a t/p = s/l and guess win rate between 50%~60% is easier to do just by guessing what move things will more likely to be.

I am still not comfortable putting t/p bigger than s/l.

Quoting amytrade
What gets me is how MANY new traders think 95-100% winning trades is possible and even worse NECESSARY!

You can make very GOOD if not exceptional returns trading forex with 30-40% win rates.

In my experience and the traders I know who trade for a career they FOCUS on high expectancy trades. In other words they know if they're wrong they will often have a breakeven to -10 to -12 pips. When right they will make from 5 to 50+ and by taking the OCCASSIONAL big win they are able to achieve a winning average pips of 15-30 pips per trade.

Then its...
  • #743
  • Edited 7:44pm Mar 21, 2009 6:43pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting Marzullo
heheh -_-, just a fast trip back to the naysayers team !

But I mean... then what journal would be credible anymore? -_-
If you need real-time signals to believe, then the whole journal is useless for you.
I don't think all those people are here to lie us... com' on...
There have been thousands of journals and nobody questions them. The problem is that this particular journal has clear unreal footprints and a clear pattern of deception, pumping, and smoke screens, all too familiar. So don't think that just b/c you start a journal, that it is going to be questioned.
This is what I mean...last week was a disaster as far as power levels being busted, ...so now really really pumping to take the focus away...latest pump...
turn $10,000 into $258,000 in one year taking only one trade a day, 20 trades a month. And picking tops and bottoms!!! Sure, no losses say the bosses. Yeah, is doable using this style of trading if the price remained in the same daily range for one whole year... +2,580% ROI a year. Keep on dreaming.
  • #744
  • Mar 21, 2009 9:42pm Mar 21, 2009 9:42pm
hi all...


well the guy is just full of useful information that has been around for years and probably talked about on here in a number of threads for years....

The problem arises when your first trade for the day is a loser....well there goes 20pips for the day....so now you need to make 40pips to recover.....panic sets in and you get a bit loose with your trading rules and then your next trade goes bad....so you are way down for the day....and so on and so on....IF it was that easy to make even 10pips a day consistantly dont you think everyone in the forum would be very rich by now.....

Most have biills to pay so want to trade for income..not investment and thats a totally different trading proposition.
  • #745
  • Edited 10:31pm Mar 21, 2009 10:10pm | Edited 10:31pm
this comes with where to set the realistic profit goal.

if using no leverage at all, doing 10pips a day that is 2000pips a year or 20% ROI/yr, assuming that's achievable only after 10 yrs practice. so in 3-5yrs, more realistic to expect is 10% ROI/yr... that is 5 pip a day/no leverage/200 trading days.

10% ROI a year is still a big deal in a stock bear market, however at a time now, even if you trade day by day, for next 10yrs, that is a 100% ROI, so assumption is dow will never return 14,000; in reality most in stocks are still expecting annualize ROI > 10% /yr for next 10 yrs.

on one hand, achieving 10% ROI is still a big deal for fixed return investments, that means 5pip a day and no leverage; on other hand, it may barely keep up with the ROI of index, (note that most forex-funds start to publish their results only on dow falling from 14,000, are they confident to beat dow rising edge by forex?) so the everyday effort will be questionable.

so now the confusing thing is where the leverage come into play.

because scalping guys seem to claim that since always using a fixed -20 stop/loss, so even use 10x leverage, that's -2% loss on a deal... so if you trade at 1x, 3x, 6x or 10x leverage, it does not make a difference.

this trick has amplified the expected return by 10 times.
however is it really true that using a tight s/l will make high leverage / low leverage tradings no difference, as a result amplify return by 10 times?
this one I am still puzzled. at least as you said, if rules are not strictly followed, 10x leverage position could be more risky.

last about your comments "would be", no, making 10pips a day at 10x leverage is not easy, my master said he did it after 10yrs in the business and his public run results has not been validated... also he gets more closed at +8 and -0 ~-8, average pips per day on most days I think it's just 5... he can get averaged 10pips because once in a month he ride on a 100-200 pip tide and got amplified by 10-20%... he claims that his frequent stop/loss has helped him not to ride on a -100~-200 tide.

it probably is a 3 signa statistic thing among the traders. (well, how can you expect (1.01^200)=7 times return a year, year by year... for everyone)

Quoting Angler
hi all...

IF it was that easy to make even 10pips a day consistantly dont you think everyone in the forum would be very rich by now.....
  • #746
  • Mar 21, 2009 11:08pm Mar 21, 2009 11:08pm
It's all very pretty in theory and hindsight claims of accomplishment...what is the method? trade bounces? but which trades to take and which to not in real time not hindsight? where is the stop being placed? or are stops even placed?...yeah you can write any crap you want and make it look pretty...it's obvious that is not real trading...all theory crap that has no place in the real trading world. It's time to leave the classroom and to start trading. Then we will see what the results are.
  • #747
  • Mar 21, 2009 11:53pm Mar 21, 2009 11:53pm
Hi all...


Oh the boy keeps saying he has a system......as wwwin says...have not seen any sign of that on his thread...

Most can not argue the fact that some bounces he takes and some he does not...sometimes he has a 93 pips draw down and sometimes he closes when its 10 pips down....system....no sign of that yet.....its just a heap of hindsight trades...AND then he takes breakout trades of course they have aready occurred as thats the only way he will ever post his trades....

People should be asking the question for themself....if the trading is so good what is he scared of by posting live trades instead of all the finished trades.

Oh...by the way...when you post clips from the broker, post the whole section....headings and closing balance for the trades and such....dont cut it off as we dont know if there were other trades taken that were losing trades...
  • #748
  • Edited 12:49am Mar 22, 2009 12:37am | Edited 12:49am
I think something like this will be okey.
(attached my master's trade for 4 days, Mar.09 starts with Mar.07 last trade, Mar.10 starts with Mar.9, Mar.11 start with Mar.10, Mar.12 start with Mar.11)
today's trade begins with the last trade of yesterday... also you can see not every day 10pips, some day -10, some day 0, same day +20.

you haven't answered my question on leverage though.

the confusing thing is if no leverage then 5pips a day is just 10% ROI/yr.
but with a 10x leverage, that becomes (1.005^200)=270%

the trick with a -20 pip tight stop/loss seems to make 10x leverage or no leverage the same.... what's the trick here? are they really the same??
(I have this puzzle since seems it turned out that many who is claiming high pips is actually using a low or no leverage, including shakes in his live show; it's kind of misleading if you assume 10x or 20x and calc their ROI)

what is the real mission possible for scalping? in terms of pips or annual ROI/yr?

back in Mar. 8 I did a poll and 100% people are saying average 10pip or 20pips a day is possible over long terms.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=156746

Quoting Angler
Hi all...

Oh...by the way...when you post clips from the broker, post the whole section....headings and closing balance for the trades and such....dont cut it off as we dont know if there were other trades taken that were losing trades...
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  • #749
  • Mar 22, 2009 1:05am Mar 22, 2009 1:05am
hi...



billye.....my comment about brokers statements was not intended for you...it was for wisdomFX....

Not sure there was a question in there for me....I thought wisdomFx provided the spreadsheet...so all questions relating to that should go to him..

As I personally find it of no value and wasting your time worrying about it..
  • #750
  • Mar 22, 2009 11:42am Mar 22, 2009 11:42am
and oh no...somebody is gonna get banned soon...welcome to the club..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=320
  • #751
  • Mar 22, 2009 12:07pm Mar 22, 2009 12:07pm
I think 10 pips a day * 200 day and no leverage, i.e. 20% ROI/year then buffet will talk to you... a scalable business with just one person that beats any fixed return of central banks.
A share holding in your fund may be the most valuable currency in the world, more attractive than any country's bond,a nd even superior than madoff.

what puzzles me most here is seems you can add upon that a leverage of 3x to 5x without risk more than 2% a trade, and then ROI becomes 60% or 100% ROI /year?

I'm logically messed with cause and effect here. seems either 3x or 5x leverage is not free, or 10pips a day is not possible. (if it's not possible why in my poll, 20 out of 20 people say it is...)

seems Angler has not interest to research into leverage topic though.

Quoting wwwin
and oh no...somebody is gonna get banned soon...welcome to the club..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=320
  • #752
  • Edited 2:44pm Mar 22, 2009 1:42pm | Edited 2:44pm
Well if you have a fund so valuable, with billions in assets, how are you going to move in and out of the market to get your daily 10 pips on billions position, without moving the market in the opposite direction? If you do it in smaller position trades throughout the day then the price would have moved all over the place. Don't you think that if it were so easy Buffett would have done it already without having to buy the system from from you? He may hire you as a trader and pay you a salary and bonus. But if you are so good, why would you work for somebody else, just trade your own account. Buffett's inventments in currencies are mega long term. He holds currency positions many many years at a time, investing billions. Do a google search on that and you will see.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0110/036_print.html

"The cemetary for seers has a huge section set aside for macro forecasters," Warren Buffeff.

Quoting billye
I think 10 pips a day * 200 day and no leverage, i.e. 20% ROI/year then buffet will talk to you... a scalable business with just one person that beats any fixed return of central banks.
A share holding in your fund may be the most valuable currency in the world, more attractive than any country's bond,a nd even superior than madoff.

what puzzles me most here is seems you can add upon that a leverage of 3x to 5x without risk more than 2% a trade, and then ROI becomes 60% or 100% ROI /year?

I'm logically messed with cause and effect here. seems...
  • #753
  • Mar 22, 2009 5:42pm Mar 22, 2009 5:42pm
That Mpee guy Is my next scam-man prediction.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #754
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:54pm Mar 22, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
That Mpee guy Is my next scam-man prediction.
You don't mean the guy that FF banned, went to BP, got banned there, and now is back?
  • #755
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:03pm Mar 22, 2009 9:03pm
hi all...


what are people worried about..geez....name the thread.....Twee said the forum is self regulated by its members....to a point obviously...
  • #756
  • Edited 9:18pm Mar 22, 2009 9:06pm | Edited 9:18pm
does buffer know else than safety margin and steady growth?

I think he mentioned not to invest in things don't understand...

he bought long AUD/USD at 0.8 something last year...

your remark on TOO big to realize a strategy does not justify that 20%/yr CAN realize with forex.

first of all, when buffet bet on coke in Y1993, he was using 0.1 billion$, he will not put all risk in one kind of trade he is not sure.
secondly, you're saying that by using no leverage and just get 10pips a day, at small amount it's still able to grow at 20% ROI per year at low risk, just 1 person, but that means any small business in this world that has <15% ROI should not be running at all.
that means if you start from 20 yrs old with 10k USD, by 70 yrs old you've got 120%^50=9100 times or 100 million... if this is true any one would be learning lawyer or medicals at all?

when I say if you could get 10pips a day at no leverage, i.e. 20% ROI a year, then buffet would have talked to you, it's a true assumption I think... did any public funds running at that return from forex, stable for 10 yrs?
I'm not convinced that I can do that so I'm comfortable that buffer did not talk to me YET...
but I wonder why buffet has not talked guys making 1% a day or 7 times a year yet.

I saw tens of people claiming 10% a day or 10% a week in forex, I guess they're on track to see buffet soon.
Quoting wwwin
Well if you have a fund so valuable, with billions in
assets, how are you going to move in and out of the market to get your daily 10 pips on billions position, without moving the market in the opposite direction? If you do it in smaller position trades throughout the day then the price would have moved all over the place. Don't you think that if it were so easy Buffett would have done it already without having to buy the system from from you? He may hire you as a trader and pay you a salary and bonus. But if you are so good, why would you work...
  • #757
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:11pm Mar 22, 2009 9:11pm
My point is that when you get too big, you can't go in and out of the market quickly, b/c you move the maket. So it would be easier for you to trade in and out, than Buffett. Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity fund manager, b/c of this has suggested that individual investors can do better than institutional if they know what they are doing.

Quoting billye
does buffer know else than safety margin and steady growth?

I think he mentioned not to invest in things don't understand...

he bought long AUD/USD at 0.8 something last year...

your remark on TOO big to realize a strategy does not justify that 20%/yr CAN realize with forex.

first of all, when buffet bet on coke in Y1993, he was using 0.1 billion$, he will not put all risk in one kind of trade he is not sure.
secondly, you're saying that by using no leverage and just get 10pips a day, at small amount it's still able to grow at 20% ROI per...
  • #758
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:22pm Mar 22, 2009 9:22pm
Hi all,

Just wanted permission to participate in this journal.

Regards,
ranger
  • #759
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:27pm Mar 22, 2009 9:27pm
hi...


you guys still discussing the leverage thing..I am not sure if there is some confusion between the number of lots taken in a trade...and leverage the ability to used a small amout of your own money to enter those trades...anyway I am staying out of it.....

fx.Ranger.......nobody here is bagging the style of trading wisdomFx is doing, there are many that trade levels whether there...Fibs, ordinary Pivots, or the usual S/R levels...

What we dont like is the constant push about being 90+% successful and the fact he is posting hindsight trades to support such success and also there does not seem to be any consistancy in the trades he takes....taking some and leaving others with no explanation to support it.....so that is the problem.
  • #760
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:30pm Mar 22, 2009 9:30pm
hi all...


Fx. Ranger....you dont need permission to post here....you will not get band from posting here....cant say the same for other threads though ...can we..
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