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Silent Service Method

  • #601
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:19pm Mar 19, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting bgin2end
Thank you for your prompt reply...

This thread has done wonders for me being able to see "trade-able" areas.

Good! Seeing the "real" areas is half the game in my opinion. The rest is self-control.
  • #602
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:22pm Mar 19, 2009 7:22pm
Quoting clockwork71
I went long the SLV ETF. It's an exchange traded fund revolving around Silver. Basically, it's the poor man's way to trade Silver futures.

Below is a chart, and my thoughts as I got in.....

CW
I always hear people saying that since FOREX is so decentralized that there is no way to measure Volume. Is there ANY way to measure volume or is it just based off of the particular server that is used?

The reason I ask is because it seems that the amount of Volume played a role in your decision to take the trade...it seems as if it reinforced the Pinn Bar as being exhaustive to the down side...
  • #603
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:25pm Mar 19, 2009 7:25pm
Quoting bgin2end
I always hear people saying that since FOREX is so decentralized that there is no way to measure Volume. Is there ANY way to measure volume or is it just based off of the particular server that is used?

The reason I ask is because it seems that the amount of Volume played a role in your decision to take the trade...it seems as if it reinforced the Pinn Bar as being exhaustive to the down side...
The only volume that is even remotely reliable is futures volume. So, no....there isn't.

To be honest, I find forex easier than stocks.....even without the volume.
  • #604
  • Mar 19, 2009 10:57pm Mar 19, 2009 10:57pm
what do you do when you have conflicting information.... like earlier in the week i could see a posssible short off the cable but a long off AUDUSD and EURUSD??
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #605
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:45am Mar 20, 2009 12:45am
I am looking at this triple bear energy etf ERY. I rode this for some nice gains back in early January for my most profitable trade ever. I did not like it due to its tremendous volatility, like riding a bucking bronco I can imagine. It was spit out by my filter then and again in early February. I had a buy stop entered then too, at 31.18, but chickened out because some pols were going to be giving speeches, in anticipation of which the markets had risen (thus causing this bear to fall), and because of the volatility. One of the reasons I was skeered was a loss I had taken just before. It then proceeded to skyrocket from 30.00 to 60.00 after the Geithner speech sans specifics, while I sat there on the sideline like a jilted lover. Almost like the technicals predicted the news. Well, its been spit out again.

It looks to me like its at a pivot zone, and has bullish divergence on the weekly williams as well as the potential bullish abandoned baby/gapped PB pattern.

Anyone have any thoughts? CW?

I will in all likelihood not trade this. Too volatile for me. Its cousin DUG is highly correlated and less volatile, so I will look at that.
Attached Image
  • #606
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:59am Mar 20, 2009 4:59am
Quoting whitegoodman
what do you do when you have conflicting information.... like earlier in the week i could see a posssible short off the cable but a long off AUDUSD and EURUSD??
Hey,

I had something similar earlier this week: I expected EURNZD to rise, and GBPNZD to fall. What I did then was look at the EURGBP charts, and expected a rise on that one as well. This ment that EUR was getting stronger than GBP, and I guess that if my expectations would come true, the strength of NZD would remain somewhat the same.

So what I did: I shorted GBPNZD, went long on EURNZD and stayed out of EURGBP since it was already halfway on its move to the next SR (.9500).

What happened: GBPNZD fell by 1000 pips, EURNZD went up a bit, and now floats around the opening level again, and as expected EURGBP continued towards the SR zone.

When I noticed EURGBP reached the SR zone, I bailed out. Made 200 pips on GBPNZD and 300 on EURNZD.

I don't think this is what CW would do though... but that time it worked for me ^^

ps. I think this actually has to do with the strengths of currencies CW was talking about earlier. He mentioned something about AUD/USD/NZD, one being the "weak" pair on the other being "stronger" ones.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #607
  • Mar 20, 2009 7:14am Mar 20, 2009 7:14am
Quoting Noloqy
ps. I think this actually has to do with the strengths of currencies CW was talking about earlier. He mentioned something about AUD/USD/NZD, one being the "weak" pair on the other being "stronger" ones.
yeh i see what your saying I just presumed the USD would be the dominant factor in most pairings...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #608
  • Mar 20, 2009 7:47am Mar 20, 2009 7:47am
Quoting whitegoodman
what do you do when you have conflicting information.... like earlier in the week i could see a posssible short off the cable but a long off AUDUSD and EURUSD??

The only way to play those charts is individually. I don't use some of the cross pairs as a way to decide all out, more like confirmation.
  • #609
  • Mar 20, 2009 7:49am Mar 20, 2009 7:49am
Quoting johnnyonspot
I am looking at this triple bear energy etf ERY....

I would be a little concerned about that gap yesterday. I like the shape of the bar, and the location is decent, but that gap could cause an issue.
  • #610
  • Mar 20, 2009 8:16am Mar 20, 2009 8:16am
Clockwork,

You mentioned in the thread that you use 3 types of exits. Can you describe them?

Much thanks,

Visual One
  • #611
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:38am Mar 20, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Visual One
Clockwork,

You mentioned in the thread that you use 3 types of exits. Can you describe them?

Much thanks,

Visual One
I either aim for the next area. (against the trend)
I will park stops behind each area. (with the trend)
I sometimes will just park a stop two bars behind, gradually moving it down every two bars. (i.e. two bars behind.) (with the trend.)
  • #612
  • Mar 20, 2009 9:58am Mar 20, 2009 9:58am
Quoting clockwork71
I went long the SLV ETF. It's an exchange traded fund revolving around Silver. Basically, it's the poor man's way to trade Silver futures.

Below is a chart, and my thoughts as I got in.....

CW
Hi Clock. Have finished reading your thread after having read the J16 public thread. Like your posts in both threads. In this SLV trade, is it right to assume you didn't blindly place a buy stop order abvove the high of the pinbar? Because we gapped up today, which would be huge slippage in your order fill if that was so.

Alternatives:
1. Close was near the top of day bar. Entering on close would be somewhat more risky, but not too bad, since it was only 0.10ish below the bar high.
2. You entered on intraday chart once you saw proper signal developing on higher timeframe.

So if you don't mind, could you provide how you did enter? Good trade anyway...

Josh
  • #613
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:04am Mar 20, 2009 10:04am
Quoting Jduester
Hi Clock....
You are correct, it was based on an intera-day signal. I don't really post 1 hour stock charts because Interactive Brokers charts are so bad, and most people don't have the ability to trade off of these shorter time frames.

I use IB because it's $1 a round turn. Most people pay "$7.99 a trade". That's $15.98 round trip. It's hard to make a buck in shorter time frames that way.

Now I am waiting on HGG to give me that signal I want.....
  • #614
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:41am Mar 20, 2009 10:41am
I am writing about something that I will probably write about time and time again.

I know this flies in the face of everything you read or heard that gets you into trading currencies, but leverage only helps to a point. It's also one of the most dangerous facets of trading. Think of this: The banks just blew up on 30:1 leverage. We often have 400:1.

It seems to me that I will probably have the conversation as long as I am a trader, and that no matter what I say, only a handful of people will actually listen.

Sorry, but you are not going to turn that $1,000 account into a $1,000,000 account. There, I said it.

I know that this statement will probably kick a few people on down the road, and they won't want to read this thread anymore, but it's the truth. I'm sorry to tell you this.

Some of the best traders in the world make 25% a year if you believe the Market Wizards series. I happen to know that if you get 30% this year, you probably could find a job trading for someone. So why do people think they can walk right into this business (yes kids, it's a business....at least the IRS thinks so.) and whip the world's best right away? If you turn that one thousand into one million, I cannot wait to see you on Bloomberg.

The trick is that if you have a $1,000 account, a 25% return is only $250 for the year. This is why you need to be patient, and add money to your account if it's small - as you prove yourself. It will grow if you are patient.

CW
  • #615
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:55am Mar 20, 2009 10:55am
Quoting clockwork71
The trick is that if you have a $1,000 account, a 25% return is only $250 for the year. This is why you need to be patient, and add money to your account if it's small - as you prove yourself. It will grow if you are patient.

CW
I was just thinking about this last night and concluded that there is no reason not to simply keep trading demo... and trading demo... and trading demo until the kitty is built up enough to allow gains to be worthwhile when one does go live. Trying to build the few thousand dollar account up to $1M is, it seems to me, a sure recipe for over trading, i.e., losses.
  • #616
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:03am Mar 20, 2009 11:03am
Quoting clockwork71
I would be a little concerned about that gap yesterday. I like the shape of the bar, and the location is decent, but that gap could cause an issue.
CW,

Re the gap, is the reason it could cause an issue is because it might close, and then drop? I am not trading this, but if I were I would not enter long in the gap. I'd have placed my entry inside the day before the gap. What specifically would the concern be with the gap? Just wanna flesh it out a little.
  • #617
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:08am Mar 20, 2009 11:08am
Quoting johnnyonspot
I was just thinking about this last night and concluded that there is no reason not to simply keep trading demo... and trading demo... and trading demo until the kitty is built up enough to allow gains to be worthwhile when one does go live. Trying to build the few thousand dollar account up to $1M is, it seems to me, a sure recipe for over trading, i.e., losses.
True, except one minor point.....and this minor point can lead to major losses. I would "scale into the market".

Let's say you take 2 years to learn this market and be good. (an example) You save 25,000 to open an account. (again, an example.) You don't want to trade full scale yet, it will be different with real money. There is a psychological difference and adjustment that you need to face as well.

I prefer to see it go like this:

Start with a $1000 account.
Have success, bring up to $5000. (between gains and adding)
Have more success, bring to $10000
etc, etc.

You are going to have to be comfortable after all.....and going from demo to trading $10 a pip suddenly is a jump to say the least. It's a little harder to be down 70 pips when it's actually $700.

Also, forex should only be part of your trading. Stocks, bonds, etc.....foreign exchange is only part of the equation.

CW
  • #618
  • Mar 20, 2009 11:18am Mar 20, 2009 11:18am
Quoting clockwork71
True, except one minor point.....and this minor point can lead to major losses. I would "scale into the market".

Let's say you take 2 years to learn this market and be good. (an example) You save 25,000 to open an account. (again, an example.) You don't want to trade full scale yet, it will be different with real money. There is a psychological difference and adjustment that you need to face as well.

I prefer to see it go like this:

Start with a $1000 account.
Have success, bring up to $5000. (between gains and adding)
Have more...
Words of Wisdom. I see too many go full force just to lose it all, and then they keep adding hoping to recover the losses. Trading demo is psychologically different than trading with real money.

I hope all heed your words....
  • #619
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:01pm Mar 20, 2009 12:01pm
Clockwork -

Just wondering what you think about this set up.

E/J Short @ 129.50 (off the bounce of Resistance) and if PA confirms (i.e. Pinn Bar on 4H or on Daily)?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej daily.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 4h.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #620
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:05pm Mar 20, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting bgin2end
Clockwork -

Just wondering what you think about this set up.

E/J Short @ 129.50 (off the bounce of Resistance) and if PA confirms (i.e. Pinn Bar on 4H or on Daily)?

its the same set up i am watching.....
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