Trader Girl Forex Trades

Hello Everybody,

I just want to have a forum for discussing trading, methods, etc. I read the rules and wish to abide by them so any questions about where I trade, which software platform(s) I use, etc private message me so I can keep the forum 100% about trading concepts and strategies. I've tried this on other forums and it became unruly and thats why I choose Forex Factory. I like the ability I have to block negative people who only want to argue and slam people's ideas and have nothing positive to contribute.


Here's tomorrow's analysis.

I feel GBPCAD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPUSD, EURCAD are most likely to go up. Buy on retracements and pullbacks if trend is up and stays above hourly 20 period simple MA.

Weakest pairs I feel will be EURJPY, EURGBP, AUDJPY and CADJPY weakest. USDCHF could be weakest but I'm not totally convinced but will be watching it in real time.

GBP/CAD Buy 1.7800 to 1.7750 and breakout of 1.8018
NZD/USD Buy .5450 to .5440 and .5400
USD/CAD Lightly buy 1.2330 and 1.2200 aggressively. Sell 1.2542-1.2550
GBP/USD Buy 1.4330 to 1.4300 and 1.4221 to 1.4200 aggressively!
EUR/CAD If CAD is weak and EUR/GBP going up buy this on dips.
GBP/JPY Lightly sell 138.23 and aggressively 139.00
EUR/USD Sell 1.3850 to 1.3863 and aggressively 1.3940-1.3950!!
NZD/JPY Possible buy at 51.50 but if broken buy 51.00
AUD/USD If double top at today's high consider shorting .6950 and sell .7028 as this is extended and likely to reverse
USD/CHF If it can't get over 1.1400 ie double top sell this area otherwise 1.1500 to 1.1568 should be high to sell
USD/JPY Lightly sell 95.50 to 95.67 and then sell 96.13, 96.50 and 96.77
EUR/JPY Should find resistance at 130.25 to 130.50 but if broken sell 131.00
EUR/GBP
AUD/JPY Sell 65.81 to 66.00
CAD/JPY Sell 77.89 to 78.00

Hey Trader Girl -

Selling tops and buying bottoms...just my style . It might be helpful to some who would be interested in your thread if you posted a chart or two.

Damon

I enjoyed your thread on ET. Subscribed.

I'll be posting charts more next week. First I do my overnight analysis and most nights I'm 60 to 80% accurate in that. Then IF a currency I expect to go up is above hourly 20 period simple avg (gray line on here) and I see FX Power Index with 70% green or higher ratings then I buy pullbacks. I'll keep buying pullbacks as long as markets making a HIGHER HIGH. When it fails to make a higher high and FX Multimap shows a slow down of intensity of the strength I'll when scalping look for quick counter trend trades. But on this forum want to focus more on Trend Trades.

I expected GBPJPY to go up so once it broke hourly I bought and also bought first pullback since 92% of the GBP pairs going up and JPY pairs weak.

I'll post more and better examples next week.

Here's a GREAT example of a pair I was dead wrong on! I felt the AUDJPY would reverse today. So I'll consider selling my level IF the pair isn't super strong which today you can clearly see it was.

The FX Power index tool I use shows 80 to 92% of the AUDJPY pairs supporting buying this pair. It helps me see in REAL TIME whether or not my overnight guess of next days trend direction is right or not. This one I was dead wrong on and its so clear that I avoided shorting.

Thank you! At least on here if somebody hijacks the forum and is too negative I can block them from posting and we can use this to discuss trading and methods that works and share with each other in a positive atmosphere. Elite Trader forums seem to be full of angry losing traders that can't believe anybody makes money trading.

Sounds real good. I like your process.

Read the charts and see which way you think price will go..

Verify your thoughts and the smaller TF's and trade accordingly.

It is a good plan.

BTW...are those indicators MT4 based?

Thanks and I look forward to reading your posts.

Have a good weekend.....Damon

Thanks. No these charts aren't MT based. I doubt they could be coded for MT as they compare all the currencies to each other on a tick by tick basis. I've never coded in MT but I would guess this would be impossible.

interesting i dont have the fxpower index when i was testing tg soft. last year.
Do you use multiple time frame for filter your entri criteria?

Yes of course! Its my believe that if traders would analyze the markets on multiple time frames they'd do MUCH better.

For example I use mostly the 2 min chart and 50 tick chart for entries. I'm often very zoomed into the chart. If I didn't have up a 30 min chart that is zoomed out to show me last 3 to 5 days price action I wouldn't know the following.

1) Multi Day Trend - is move up/down part of overall trend of simply a counter trend move for me to look for entries in direction of LONGER term trend.
2) Is market severely overbought or oversold? If you are soo zoomed into a chart you can't see that the market's gone up maybe 400 pips and up 4 days in a row. After 4 days up/down I am looking for reversals and will use some counter trend methods such as Double Stat signal, buying/selling the 4 hour stat low/high, doing counter trend trades at the containment bands which I am a big fan of or drawing Fibs on chart and doing counter trend trades at Fib Targets IF they line up near previous days/weeks/months highs/lows or monthly or weekly pivot points!

So yes its essential to do this. In doing my analysis the next day I use a 2 day chart with 5 min bars, a 30 min showing 3 to 5 days and also a daily chart where I look at 20, 50, 200 day moving average which usually reverses the FIRST day markets hit them which is good usually for 30 to 50 pips when it does.

I also find by doing my analysis the NIGHT before I'm ready to trade the next day. Some days my analysis is only 50% accurate but real time tools show me this and I'll often go with current trends and forget my analysis. IF I'm right on most pairs and the ones I expect most to go up are and are doing so with high intensity strength I'll trade BIGGER positions sometimes up to 100% bigger. I find this helps me increase my win-loss ratio which right now is about 3.2-1. If I didn't do this my win/loss ratio would be closer to 2-1 which is fine (I feel 1.5 and higher is ok if you're 50% or higher win rate).

So anyway by doing nightly analysis I can get away with not looking so much at longer term charts WHILE I'm trading and can focus on bar by bar analysis and watch for higher highs/ higher lows in uptrends and the reverse in downtrends. I'll usually continue trading a trend as LONG as it keeps making higher highs/ higher lows in uptrends and the reverse in down trends.

One KEY to my method is to wait for a trendline break to GET IN. If markets trend up I wait for a down move and draw trendline off the highs of the candles. When price hits a support level and breaks trendline I buy immediately not on a close! This often gets me better price entries and I avoid many losing trades by waiting!

I just wish the software I use would have alerts on trendlines, this would allow me to trade a lot more pairs. They claim to be working on this and are pretty responsible to traders needs so hoping they see this post! Please put in trend line alerts!!

Due to my analysis I expect the NZD to be the strongest followed by USD, GBP, CAD and CHF and weakest pairs are JPY then EUR then AUD.

In all the systems I trade one thing I focus on is buying strongest pairs vs weakest and shorting weakest pairs vs strongest.

Here are the levels I'll be looking at to buy/sell.

USD/JPY Lightly buy 95.23 and aggressively 94.90 to 94.50
NZD/JPY Buy 53.00 to 52.74 and aggressively 52.50
GBP/JPY Buy 137.12 to 137.00
CAD/JPY Buy 76.62 to 76.50
USD/CHF Buy 1.1200 to 1.1180
AUD/JPY Buy 65.00 and 64.50
USD/CAD Buy 1.2330 to 1.2300
EUR/JPY Buy 129.00
GBP/CAD
NZD/USD Buy breakout of .5625 or sell breakdown of .5550
GBP/USD Sell 1.4600 and breakdown of 1.4400
EUR/CAD
EUR/GBP Sell .9450 and breakdown of .9381
AUD/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of .6850 and sell .6950
EUR/USD Aggressively sell breakdown of 1.3550 and 1.3700

Great trading day today. Most pairs went direction predicted. I simply then look for REAL TIME confirmation of those trends and buy pullbacks. Too many trades today to discuss them all but here's one of my favorites. GBP was strong as I thought and JPY very weak so bought this pullback when trendline broke. It also happened when an automated system I'm developing also bought and market shot up 140 pips. I got out at the 1.618 fib target 141.49.

Here was another trade I took when my 1.1200 buy level was hit. I expected the USD to show strength today, more so than the CHF so when it hit my level with less than 10 FX Multimap weakness which is nothing I bought when trendline broke. I typically exit these at Fib retracement levels or hourly. I got out of this one too soon.

Currencies to Buy
AUD/JPY Buy lightly 67.50 but 67.10 to 67.00 should be low
AUD/USD Buy .6950 to .6943
CAD/JPY Buy 78.00 to 77.78
USD/JPY Buy 96.00 to 95.77
GBP/JPY Buy 139.22 to 139.00
NZD/JPY Lightly buy 54.50 and aggressively 54.09 to 53.93
USD/CHF Buy breakout of 1.1300 and also buy 1.1125 to 1.1100

Currencies to Sell
GBP/USD May be running out of steam. If it breaks 1.4600 and EURGBP trending down buy otherwise sell 1.4700 to 1.4730
NZD/USD Sell .5760
EUR/JPY Seems to be topping out, look to sell 133.14 to 133.50
USD/CAD Sell 1.2350 and 1.2450 and breakdown of 1.2200
EUR/USD Sell 1.3800
EUR/GBP Sell .9425 to .9450

Here was a great trade I took in GBPJPY. It was predicted to go up and was showing strength and consolidating above hourly MA. There was a NR7 bar on 4 hour chart and those breakouts IN the direction of TREND are often very profitable. My system alerted me to this and got in a bit late but exited when trailing stop hit and made 115 pips.

I did NOT take this next trade as I was sleeping but hourly NR7 breakout yielded 75 pips.

USD/CHF Lightly buy 1.1228 and aggressively 1.1161
USD/CAD Buy 1.2204 to 1.2193
USD/JPY Buy 97.19 to 97.00 and aggressively at 96.84 to 96.76
GBP/JPY Lightly buy 142.75 to 142.64 and aggressively at 141.75 to 141.50
GBP/USD Buy 1.4531 to 1.4500 and aggressively 1.4449
CAD/JPY Lightly sell 80.15 and aggressively at 80.50 -sell fib targets up
EUR/JPY Sell 133.00 to 133.37
EUR/GBP Sell .9278
EUR/USD Sell 1.3625 to 1.3650
AUD/JPY Sell 69.00 and breakdown of 67.75 down to 67.00 where its likely to find support
NZD/JPY Sell breakdown of 54.75 down to 54.35 area where it may reverse
AUD/USD Sell .7025 and .7075
NZD/USD Sell .5700 and breakdown of .5600. May find support at .5500 to .5465

I'll say it again....I like the way you trade.

What platform are you using please? They seem to have some neat things which I have not seen before.

Damon

These charts are TopGun Software. Many of the tools on here they don't even discuss on their website.

I prefer the FX Power Index (20 period, 15 min bar) and FX Power Index draw color candles (20 period, 5 min bar), balance point line set to 180 mins and I also use FX Multimap 60 min.

The FX Multimap shows intensity of all the pairs compared statistically to each other. Values over 20 are pretty strong.

The FX Power Index simply measures what % of currencies support a buy/sell and I think is the best tool I've ever traded with.

I'm experimenting with their Spearman OSC but haven't decided if I'm going to use it or not. It seems to improve the auto trading systems I'm trying to develop, very hard to come up with automated systems that make money.

Hi Amy - are you using NR7 as a variation of the Crabel / Conners / Raschke IBNR4 strategy, or is it something different?

Regards

Islander