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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,381
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:37am Apr 3, 2007 10:37am
imo, this trend is about out of gas.
  • #2,382
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:40am Apr 3, 2007 10:40am
Quoting Mother
so Dow have impact on GJ?. i was making some looking and wondering what is that 12.5k? made me curious.
Both are risk-related assets. As market starts getting back to risk, after the Chinese and subprime lender crisis, Dow Jones is the termometer of the risk sentiment...

Money is now flowing from Yen (repatriated for the end of Fiscal Year, last week) to the carry trades, mostly via GBP which is at a long bias ahead of the rate hike.

So Dow Jones inspires the carry trade actions as well as all other stock market around the globe - in the absence of rumor or other crisis popping up out of the NYC session.

You can check on DJ here: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcd...tml?ticker=DJI
  • #2,383
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:43am Apr 3, 2007 10:43am
11:21 The immediate JPY cross buying looks to be fading and it now seems a question of whether European close sees profit-taking and paring of longs. Between the upcoming G7 and approaching Easter Holidays there is a potential for an ugly set-back, but for now there is no joy to be had selling JPY crosses.
  • #2,384
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:45am Apr 3, 2007 10:45am
hmmmm I left that traid way too short I have to review my exit rules .... its unfair to take my pips !
  • #2,385
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:46am Apr 3, 2007 10:46am
Im going back in, 234.95, TP is 235.30. I cant believe you guys are shorting already.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,386
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:47am Apr 3, 2007 10:47am
Quoting bmwboyee
imo, this trend is about out of gas.
I seem to remember having this conversation yesterday at 233. The usd/jpy still has some room to 119, so this pair still might move another 50 pips or more.
  • #2,387
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:48am Apr 3, 2007 10:48am
With all respect, I think that is called: "Top/Bottom Guessing Technique (TBGT)"...

By the way, this last technique is suicide when applying it on STRONG trendy markets...

Quoting Plutonite
Im going back in, 234.95, TP is 235.30. I cant believe you guys are shorting already.
  • #2,388
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:53am Apr 3, 2007 10:53am
Quoting iiivb
Maybe I am wrong... but... if you are fighting the trend... wouldn't be wise too to set a profit-taking target very tight too?
And most will agree with you. Let's just see what happens. I haven't got a clue really. And a trend like the one below is crazy to go against. After all, the trend is your friend. Yeah? Looking at it now I''l get stopped out soon anyway.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0403170000.GIF

Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #2,389
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:54am Apr 3, 2007 10:54am
Quoting iiivb
With all respect, I think that is called: "Top/Bottom Guessing Technique (TBGT)"...

By the way, this last technique is suicide when applying it on STRONG trendy markets...
So go long and rip us off
  • #2,390
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:57am Apr 3, 2007 10:57am
Longed @ 231.20 last week...

Quoting cesarnc
So go long and rip us off
Well... you do not have to be sarcastic... I just want to help the way I can... sorry for doing that then...
  • #2,391
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:57am Apr 3, 2007 10:57am
One of the first rules of trading I learned was,

"top and bottom pickers are soon to be cotton pickers."
  • #2,392
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:59am Apr 3, 2007 10:59am
Quoting cesarnc
You can check on DJ here: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcd...tml?ticker=DJI

i need to defenedly study this Dow sector more! thankyou for the info!
  • #2,393
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:01am Apr 3, 2007 11:01am
Any chance this pair will fall back to Earth? (118ish)
  • #2,394
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:03am Apr 3, 2007 11:03am
Quoting Big P
Any chance this pair will fall back to Earth? (118ish)
Yes of course... but i strongly think that not this quarter year.. maybe next... that is what i think
  • #2,395
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:05am Apr 3, 2007 11:05am
Quoting iiivb
Longed @ 231.20 last week...



Well... you do not have to be sarcastic... I just want to help the way I can... sorry for doing that then...
Of COURSE I know the trend is up... I was the one buying dips during the selloff untill 229 to make 300+ pips on the reversal. That's why I know the trend is up.

But with the indicators we have now, short is less risky than long. But surely staying out carries ZERO risk whatever the direction...

I don't try dip and top picking in the middle of trending indicators, specially 4hr. But have a look at your chart....
  • #2,396
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:15am Apr 3, 2007 11:15am
Quoting Big P
Any chance this pair will fall back to Earth? (118ish)
Since that pair had a firmer/clearer breakout than this one, I would say no. Of course, big news/huge stock market movements can change that, but at the moment there is no reason for price movement other than upwards given the breach of a multi-week high (look at the daily chart).

This said, I have pulled out after making decent pipage. But never mind me, Im such a chicken, I can't handle the suspense of multiple candles.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,397
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:22am Apr 3, 2007 11:22am
Quoting imbiber
One of the first rules of trading I learned was,

"top and bottom pickers are soon to be cotton pickers."
Haha, nice phrase.

Why am I laughing - I'm down some serious pips going against the trend.

Anyway, I'm using cesarnc method of adding mini/micro lots on every 15-30 pips of the trend to reduce any potential loss if the reverse is not immediately forthcoming. And its worked for me so far.

cesarnc you rule!
  • #2,398
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:23am Apr 3, 2007 11:23am
Quoting cesarnc
Of COURSE I know the trend is up... I was the one buying dips during the selloff untill 229 to make 300+ pips on the reversal. That's why I know the trend is up.

But with the indicators we have now, short is less risky than long. But surely staying out carries ZERO risk whatever the direction...

I don't try dip and top picking in the middle of trending indicators, specially 4hr. But have a look at your chart....
sold at 235.00 exactly, see where she goes.
  • #2,399
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:25am Apr 3, 2007 11:25am
Quoting cesarnc
Of COURSE I know the trend is up... I was the one buying dips during the selloff untill 229 to make 300+ pips on the reversal. That's why I know the trend is up.

But with the indicators we have now, short is less risky than long. But surely staying out carries ZERO risk whatever the direction...

I don't try dip and top picking in the middle of trending indicators, specially 4hr. But have a look at your chart....
I agree that the risk exposure at these levels is definately less on the short side for now. Resistance at 235 may or may not hold but it makes no sense right now to buy at these levels.
  • #2,400
  • Apr 3, 2007 11:28am Apr 3, 2007 11:28am
Well the trend is quite strong. But we have to pay attention to the another indicators like stoch, rsi etc. Most of them show huge overbought... I suppose, it means something, doesn't it?
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