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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,281
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:26am Mar 19, 2009 4:26am
sir,

the London session we have now looks very normal (rangewise n volatility) ,
what I mean is that after such volatile market , the market now is far too calm ...
I felt those who sold the dollars last nite have stepped out of the market ...

am I right in anyway , or is it just false presumption ....
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #6,282
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:28am Mar 19, 2009 4:28am
Quoting maheswara
sir,

the London session we have now looks very normal (rangewise n volatility) ,
what I mean is that after such volatile market , the market now is far too calm ...
I felt those who sold the dollars last nite have stepped out of the market ...

am I right in anyway , or is it just false presumption ....

or may step off building.\

just jesting.

probably turned or are now

Now we will see how many usd bear will survive.
its gonna be musical chairs time.

regards
  • #6,283
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:31am Mar 19, 2009 4:31am
Hello boys and girls. Hows everybody doing today?
  • #6,284
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:35am Mar 19, 2009 4:35am
Quoting belekas
Hello boys and girls. Hows everybody doing today?
Hi belekas,
Made money, hangover from yest fiasco.
Angry with brokers,too.

They are angry too, some of them lost their balls yesterday.

How did you do?

regards
  • #6,285
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:48am Mar 19, 2009 4:48am
Quoting fti
Hi belekas,
Made money, hangover from yest fiasco.
Angry with brokers,too.

They are angry too, some of them lost their balls yesterday.

How did you do?

regards
Was dancing with my ladie (gbp/jpy) from the early morning. Kept my short open and protected before left home. Came back just to see this monster USD bear all around. Closed 250 pips from my dance. No more dances as i was not at home. I would have bagged huge bag of pips if i was trading completely devoted yesterday. Anyway im glad everyone got some pips, as there were just too many of them on the table for those who know how to dance.
  • #6,286
  • Mar 19, 2009 6:58am Mar 19, 2009 6:58am
Phew, bad mindset bad mindset.

Had too big a position as usd bull. Flipped and recovered with big profit.
Still, I was overexposed. Will stop trading now.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,287
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:04am Mar 19, 2009 7:04am
Quoting hpr
Phew, bad mindset bad mindset.

Had too big a position as usd bull. Flipped and recovered with big profit.
Still, I was overexposed. Will stop trading now.

Hi hpr
met , so now are you afraid of the dark yet.
Good thing that you manage well.
Remember won't be so lucky everytime.

regards
  • #6,288
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:17am Mar 19, 2009 7:17am
Fti, I attributed it to overconfidence.

I haven't had a losing day yet from the beginning of the year. However, today's massive flip is considered a loss for me because its a sign that I'm inching closer to losing control. My feel for the markets has grown but yesterdays and todays events are still new experiences for me (they're rare).

Happy trading peeps.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #6,289
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:22am Mar 19, 2009 7:22am
Quoting hpr
Fti, I attributed it to overconfidence.

I haven't had a losing day yet from the beginning of the year. However, today's massive flip is considered a loss for me because its a sign that I'm inching closer to losing control. My feel for the markets has grown but yesterdays and todays events are still new experiences for me (they're rare).

Happy trading peeps.
Hi hpr
  • #6,290
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:24am Mar 19, 2009 7:24am
Thanks for commenting. I have much to learn.

Quoting fti

Your 2
------
Of course with much experience there are ways this can be managed. If you had much foreign cap and good MM, it is much easier.
Are you referring to flipping in this case?



Quoting fti

Your 3
-------
In summary, Think managing within book capacity. In fast markets, survival depends on reflex. There is little time to strategise, and if initial strategy is in trouble, then just damage control. If you stop to think you will lag behind market, very far behind.
I hope I got the key points right here: "managing within book capacity", "damage control".

Thanks for your time.
  • #6,291
  • Mar 19, 2009 7:42am Mar 19, 2009 7:42am
Quoting hpr
Fti, I attributed it to overconfidence.

I haven't had a losing day yet from the beginning of the year. However, today's massive flip is considered a loss for me because its a sign that I'm inching closer to losing control. My feel for the markets has grown but yesterdays and todays events are still new experiences for me (they're rare).

Happy trading peeps.
hpr,
talk about nervous,
yesterday I was quite at my limits as well.
and brokers missing hits left and right didn't make it any easier.
If I was at the banks, many heads would be rolling already.
Unfortunately as indiividual traders, it doesn't bother them much. Sure hope things will change , if retail forex ever gets itself of its infancy.

regards
  • #6,292
  • Edited 8:04am Mar 19, 2009 7:45am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting hcong168
Thanks for commenting. I have much to learn.



Are you referring to flipping in this case?





I hope I got the key points right here: "managing within book capacity", "damage control".

Thanks for your time.
yeah,hcong
I think you got the essentials.

But remember when you flip positions, do it only if you "experiencing" high momentum . Otherwise can get "screwed" both positions. The timing is crucial.


regards

And look at these markets, after the uneployment figs.
Super lame. What can I say? No more nerves left.
Guess, how usd bulls are feeling now....must be turning purple already.
So remember the lesson, the prices are no determined by buy/ sell orders.
Its dependant on the mmakers books and positions. This is OTC structure.

Imagine if you were caught long USD, were egoistical and had snowballed to the hilt.
Now every 10 pips push against you could make you poop where you sit.
Doesn't matter if the fundamentals are in your favour or you indicator show that you WILL be right. NOW is what counts. Enough said.
  • #6,293
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:04am Mar 19, 2009 8:04am
Quoting fti
Hi Gro,

Do you know that the Nikkei225 futures in SIMEX a long time ago moved 10000 points in a matter of 15 minutes. More than 50 traders were bankrupted and became multi millionaires within that 30 minutes time range.
Some of them are my friends.

Hi FTI

Challenging question to me.They are still in today's multi millionaires?
They bankrupt and then very big coincidence.

Only by me to wonder , they have directed their business to bankruptcy?

quickly became - quickly lost?

  • #6,294
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:09am Mar 19, 2009 8:09am
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI

Challenging question to me.They are still in today's multi millionaires?
They bankrupt and then very big coincidence.

Only by me to wonder , they have directed their business to bankruptcy?

quickly became - quickly lost?

Hi Gro,
If you really want to know how bad it can get.
Go dig up information about Nelson Bunker Hunt.(the Hunt Brothers)

regards
  • #6,295
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:18am Mar 19, 2009 8:18am
Quoting fti
Hi Gro,
If you really want to know how bad it can get.
Go dig up information about Nelson Bunker Hunt.(the Hunt Brothers)

regards
Hi FTI

This is strong coffee!

  • #6,296
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:40am Mar 19, 2009 8:40am
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI

This is strong coffee!

What you experienced yesterday is nothing.
You would be shocked of that which I had seen.

Maybe if you remember what I had being saying about MM and over gearing and these experiences. It would make for prudent and level headed traders, I hope.

regards
  • #6,297
  • Mar 19, 2009 8:49am Mar 19, 2009 8:49am
Hi there,

really cool trading sessions yesterday and today.
Yeah I know it may sound greedy, but could it not be everyday like the last two days ???

Wish you all a great trading day!

Regards,
MaMood
  • #6,298
  • Edited 9:35am Mar 19, 2009 9:19am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting fti
""""

Most of what you are saying is all speculation, without basis.
You had better reread the thread very carefully.

and what makes you think a retracement is eminent, Look at you charts , see any sign of it? Look at your daily and hourly charts what do you see?

.
you are right... no retracement in eur-usd and 200 p. up... was just using my fantasy and typing. and i was also thinking it was a good 50/61.8 ret, after the 3 month down move in eur-usd. still is ... but you look at naked charts here.

i promise i will not post here untill i've read the thread from front to back.

kind greetings, jacco
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,299
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:31am Mar 19, 2009 9:31am
Quoting j-pax
you are right... no retracement in eur-usd and 200 p. up... was just using my fantasy and typing. and i was also thinking it was a good 50/61.8 ret, after the 3 month down move in eur-usd. still is ... but you look at naked charts here.

i promise i will not post here untill i've read the thread from front to back.

kind greetings, jacco
Hi j-pax,

I hope you do not take it too hard.Do post when you have questions about stuff you cannot fig out or if you have things you want second opnions on.
Its just that I have to make it very clear to many who are trained in reading markets erroneously, with PREDICTIVE undertones.
Many people have bias of markets and oipnions , we cannot help that, Its the analytical us. But we must be able to distinguish, objective bias from fixation errors. More important , we must be able to tear from bias , when wrong, to do the right things to save book.

You will slowly learn that to be profitable , being right is not important. Being reactive when wrong and ability to push the advantage when right is more important.
Like Gro rightly pointed out , only 2% of our thinking capacity is at optimum most times. Try not to overload with unnecessaries.

regards
  • #6,300
  • Mar 19, 2009 9:31am Mar 19, 2009 9:31am
lets see if there are usd buyers at this level ...
cant seem to feel any though ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
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