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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,241
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:33pm Mar 18, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi V,

I'm short.
Heavily short ....

BTW: Cable seems to leading ...

did a strong attack down to restest of 9565
Hi MaMood,
Profit is good, but please don't let it get to your head.

Just for your info, I just bot 3 mio usd at 95.73,74.75
to take profits.
Guess where I was short Usd/yen.

becareful of you mindset.
The profits are ok, it is booked, it all in a day's work.
But don't let it get to your head.
Laugh when you are spending it.
You are still in battle zone.

You had dropped her off across, why are you still carrying her in your mind.
  • #6,242
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:42pm Mar 18, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting fti
Hi indianguyinny24,
If you are truely trying to learn.
Maybe reread the thread carefully. Then you will understand why that cannot happen, unless...........

regards

Undercaptilized?
  • #6,243
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:43pm Mar 18, 2009 4:43pm
Hi FTI
all right I understand
that not into figs (not in lady's long legs those are very volatile ,flirt)

trading daily bias

You write
"Let the mkt show where it resists, do not have R/S or lines. You will truely be able to feel where it truely resist. Failing that it resist , you will have windfall profits. Then take opportunity to slowly diffuse any attacks that you may had implimented during the run, if any".

I have one thousand questions ...



  • #6,244
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:44pm Mar 18, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting Acs_112
Undercaptilized?

WRONG.
reread thread.
  • #6,245
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:45pm Mar 18, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting fti
Hi MaMood,
Profit is good, but please don't let it get to your head.

Just for your info, I just bot 3 mio usd at 95.73,74.75
to take profits.
Guess where I was short Usd/yen.

becareful of you mindset.
The profits are ok, it is booked, it all in a day's work.
But don't let it get to your head.
Laugh when you are spending it.
You are still in battle zone.
Thank you very much for your warnings.
Did it very similiar to you, but a little smaller ;-)
Bought 0.8 Mio at 9578.
Only my scout is in the Battlezone, trying to stay in contact with the market ....

Trading with 3000 EUR only, which represents 5% of my trading capital.
Made a very very strong profit today, that gave the possibility to go up for 1 Mio USD without risking everything. That is the only advantage with the retail brokers: The leverage, to get most of the money you are willing to put on the table ...
  • #6,246
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:52pm Mar 18, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting MaMood
Thank you very much for your warnings.
Did it very similiar to you, but a little smaller ;-)
Bought 0.8 Mio at 9578.
Only my scout is in the Battlezone, trying to stay in contact with the market ....
No, I think you are leting emotions into the trades.
I am watching to see if boj may come in with position overhangs, and you are carrying trades without fear?
Markets so thin I can hardly get quotes for up to 1 mio, and you have no fear with positions in this markets?
doesn't seem correct mindset.
  • #6,247
  • Mar 18, 2009 4:54pm Mar 18, 2009 4:54pm
Just for info:

Dow +1.2%, Nasdaq +2.0%

BofA +22%, tripled value since early March.
Citigroup +23%
  • #6,248
  • Edited 5:20pm Mar 18, 2009 4:58pm | Edited 5:20pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
was curios anyone got hurt today....

i saw in one min such a jump havent seen that...i am happy most of you made money...

but i was thinking what if you are wrong side and then whoop 240 pips move against u in a mintue.... i dont know what to think... even MM is good if you can implement it... i dont see u can implement MM in this time...

Again just my thoughts... i guess i do belive in positive thinking but this is real time ... and i can see see worst posiible true that 10% of book is gone... close for the day...


Again just my thoughts......

hey indianguyinny,

i was thinking about the same thing. i (newbie) tought many marketmakers have to be counterparty to this move and they are very long on the dollar now.

they had to fight back by terrible snowballing on the $ bull side or they are waiting for a slowdown and turn and plunge a bear move very hard.

fti said tomorrow will be interesting. if the big guys are waiting, tomorrow the dollar will gain much ground.....

fti was bullish on the dollar so i guess many high rollers where... they have to make up for lost ground. or they allready did like fti and this was a ggreat part of the movement, then the rally is over.
if most are still short of USD tomorrow i expect a retracement.

they have/had to "kill" winners to get their books square.

correct me if i am missing something. i am here for learning.

greetings jacco

even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #6,249
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:00pm Mar 18, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting MaMood
Just for info:

Dow +1.2%, Nasdaq +2.0%

BofA +22%, tripled value since early March.
Citigroup +23%
exactly my point,with a stronger equity outlook and you are short $ big time and not cautious?
  • #6,250
  • Edited 5:28pm Mar 18, 2009 5:08pm | Edited 5:28pm
""""hey indianguyinny,

i was thinking about the same thing. i (newbie) tought many marketmakers have to be counterparty to this move and they are very long on the dollar now.

they had to fight back by terrible snowballing on the $ bull side or they are waiting for a slowdown and turn and plunge a bear move very hard.

fti said tomorrow will be interesting. if the big guys are waiting, tomorrow the dollar will gain much ground.....

fti was bullish on the dollar so i guess many high rollers where... they have to make up for lost ground. or they allready did like fti, then the rally is over.
if they are still short of USD tomorrow i expect a retracement.

they have to "kill" retail winners to get their books square.

correct me if i am missing something. i am here for learning.

greetings jacco"""





Hey jacco,
thinking like that can get you killed very quickly.
You assume mmakers are stupid or what.
Although they are counterparties to your trade , they also know how to square down faster than you think.
Most of what you are saying is all speculation, without basis.
You had better reread the thread very carefully.
If anything during the gap away, many of the order junkies(limits and stops) were taken out in a splash. Guess who knew where your order bands sat.

regards

and what makes you think a retracement is eminent, Look at you charts , see any sign of it? Look at your daily and hourly charts what do you see?

Contarian thinking in explosive impulse can make you poor very fast. You must follow the market flows.

I hope you realise why many of you get slaughtered in markets.
Think carefully.
  • #6,251
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:18pm Mar 18, 2009 5:18pm
fti, I've been studying your thread for a few months now, still way back on page 155, but have been learning and practicing your teachings.

I've thought all along yours was the right way to trade, just didn't know how to do it, I think I'm getting there, although I'm still trading a demo account and testing using forextester software. I think it's time to move to a small live account, and trade fractional lots (according to leigh's spreadsheet from way back).

Anyway, sorry for rambling on, I just wanted to say I'm so glad you're back on so I can watch and learn from the master in action, as opposed to reading about it after the fact.

You have been an inspiration and a guiding light. Many thanks.

Alex
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #6,252
  • Edited 5:35pm Mar 18, 2009 5:24pm | Edited 5:35pm
Quoting Alexgee
fti, I've been studying your thread for a few months now, still way back on page 155, but have been learning and practicing your teachings.

I've thought all along yours was the right way to trade, just didn't know how to do it, I think I'm getting there, although I'm still trading a demo account and testing using forextester software. I think it's time to move to a small live account, and trade fractional lots (according to leigh's spreadsheet from way back).

Anyway, sorry for rambling on, I just wanted to say I'm so glad you're back on...
Hi Alex,
please do not use spreadsheets.
You have to learn to react in "running battle scenarios"
Learn it correctly from the start.
In running battle scenarios even position and costing have to be guesstimated with your mind. Reliance on aid will lag you , just like chart indicators.

If you are newbie , going live , trade to the smallest that you can until you are fully orientated to what you are doing, there are many mindset traps and variances.
You need to get the necessary experience trading. Believe me you may carry much scorpions that you have to tame.


regards
  • #6,253
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:30pm Mar 18, 2009 5:30pm
OK times up.
piccolo, good one.

well I guess the rest are not interested or haven't a clue.

regards
  • #6,254
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:36pm Mar 18, 2009 5:36pm
Hi FTI
...hmm I was so wrong
  • #6,255
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:38pm Mar 18, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI
...hmm I was so wrong
about What ? Gro
  • #6,256
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:40pm Mar 18, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting fti
What about? Gro

I answered and I do not know whether bad or good

  • #6,257
  • Edited 5:54pm Mar 18, 2009 5:41pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting Gro

I answered and I do not know whether bad or good

mom, i check, may have missed it.

In principle you are correct.

I do not carry trades into major news and event releases, these are wildcard gambles, that can be hard to manage in fast markets even if you may have a bias. This is very important.Doing so is gambling.The trick is to respond to the flow from the event

It is already discussed in the thread and with hands-on directions, during one of the fig releases.
  • #6,258
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:50pm Mar 18, 2009 5:50pm
The market could go anywhere so you must be always prepared and able to implement effective strategies to adapt to the constantly changing environment.?
  • #6,259
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:55pm Mar 18, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting fti
exactly my point,with a stronger equity outlook and you are short $ big time and not cautious?
Yeah - got it.
To much adrenalin in my blood after such moves ...
And my risk level seems to be to high to stay profitable in the long run ....
Thank you!!
  • #6,260
  • Mar 18, 2009 5:57pm Mar 18, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting fti
mom, i check, may have missed it.

In principle you are correct.

I do not carry trades into major news and event releases, these are wildcard gambles, that can be hard to manage in fast markets even if you may have a bias. This is very important.Doing so is gambling.

It is already discussed in the thread.

thanks mom

Now this was - power learning

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