Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

EUR/USD

The pair is now above 1.30; i had opened some more longs from just around 1.30; believe that the trend is now strong bullish.

Targets will be 1.3050, 1.3075 and above.

EUR/USD

The pair is now expanding short-term overbought level to 1.3050/75. I think we'll reach there before US session open.

I'll probably then book profits of the new longs opened; will bring the pair to weak bullish again; and wait for another break out to carry pair to strong bullish again.

AUD/USD

This pair is overextended. I believe it could see some retracement; hence turning the pair to weak bullish, until it moves above 0.6660s.

EUR/USD

As stated earlier in EU session open, the pair has moved above 1.3050s. There could be some retracement; i am closing some longs, to bring the pair back to weak long

Profits booked for around 50+ on extra longs entered in EU session

Still holding some longs

Believe the trend is in tact to the upside.

US OPEN

EUR/USD

As we have discussed, EUR/USD was oversold in short term, and we are seeing a pull back.

If the pair falls below 1.2990s, there is a nice prob. that it will go down to low 1.2900s, and possible 1.2870s.

The pair will remain weak bullish as long as it stays above 1.2850s and medium term trend is not violated.

Correction:

as you would have guessed, the "oversold" in the 1st sentence supposed to be "overbought"; you cannot see a pull back from an oversold state, eh?

Sorry for the confusion

US Close:

Beware: EUR/USD is now in the overbought territory, and a move below 1.27 mark will push the pair all the way down to 1.2350s.

Caution for bulls, including me

I'm still weak bullish on this pair. If we see below 1.2870s in the Asian or EU sessions tomorrow, i will turn weak bearish and wait for a break below 1.27 to push it down towards 1.2350s.

Cheers...

JPY crosses:

USD/JPY is still overbought, and as long as the pair stays below 99.50s, there is a great probability that it will follow road to 94 and below.

The reverse in DOW seen today is a signal that traders should see, CAUTION.

A sell off in USD/JPY will also push other JPY crosses lower, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD also trending down.

US Session Open:

EUR/USD

The pair is still weak bullish; we would need a move above 1.3050s to get this pair turn to strong bullish, then a push towards 1.31.

Below 1.29, the pair will turn to weak bearish, and a pull back towards 1.2750s is possible. A break thereof would turn to strong bearish, and push the pair towards 1.2350s in the upcoming days.

I am still weak bullish on this pair. If the pair lingers around these areas, and the overbought sentiment fades away for longer term investors, we could see a break above 1.3050s and 1.31, and a run higher.

EUR/JPY

Below 127.70s, we may see a pull back toward 123.50/124

JPY lingering to push crosses down.

GBP/JPY


The pair is now strong bearish, targeting 132. Only a move above 140 will void this target.

GBP

Claimant count is continuing to signal deteriorating job market. GBP crosses will be under pressure.

Nice time to short GBP across the board

Hello, Thanks for the analysis..I would like to know you view on the Euro cuz at the moment it seems not to be moving.
There is a news coming out soon in 30mins US core CPI.What's your analysis?
Thanks. Ayour2a

Hello,

Thanks for your contribution. Indeed, EUR/USD is stuck, and will be struggling to start an uptrend above 1.30/1.31.

The pair is still strong bullish, however I personally would doubt to open new long positions, until a clear break above 1.31. The long term & short term sentiment points to overbought, and a pull back is possible. A fall below 1.29 and 1.2850s will push the pair to 1.2350s.

About the CPI; its still remaining low, hence allowing FED to keep rates low. A rising trend will signal that all the bailouts are havıng an effect, and rising inflation. FED would then have to increase rates; but NOT now...

Fed stick

Fed is buying bonds; ever increasing amount.

What the danger here is, if the recovery doesn't happen, we may end up in an inflationary depression. Hope that doesn't happen.

EUR/USD has exploded, even though it was overbought. Still carrying longs. Asian session will be interesting.

April 4, EU session

EURUSD

This pair looks overbought to me. It could be good idea to increase shorts on this pair.

The safe range is around 1.3330-1.3340. Will go for long above those levels, if it happens.

Will check back at the US open

GBPAUD

There is a potential high RR ratio trade present in this pair. The pair is currently oversold.

One could go long from these levels, 2.0640s, and stops around 2.0520-2.0550s, with targets around and above 2.09. RR is 1 : 2.5 to 3

EURUSD outlook:

Was looking for levels above 1.33 to add more shorts, and the pair has given several opportunities just to do that.

Recap:


It could be a worthy risk to short more if the pair moves temporarily above 1.32; shorts could be added here and above.

I don't expect the trend to reverse unless until we read quotes above high 1.3200s and 1.3300s

Low liquidity during next few sessions.

USDJPY

Levels above 100 are looking good to short, with stops above 110.70s.

The pair has once again moved back above 100.50s, but still struggling to find further will to move higher.

USDCAD

Pair could face with added selling pressure next week around 1.2300-1.2320. Shorts could enter from these levels. 1.2350s and above is the safe range. Long trades will struggle until a move above 1.2350s.