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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,321
  • Apr 3, 2007 2:24am Apr 3, 2007 2:24am
Yes and sentiment "seems" stronger than ever. Carry trade and swaps are in the news daily. This one lined up perfectly i suppose, i wonder if it will continue again or if we will see the projected long term downtrend since we are kissing resistance @ 240'ish on the monthly??
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #2,322
  • Apr 3, 2007 2:29am Apr 3, 2007 2:29am
I have the 78.6% retrace of the last big wave down on the 4 hour chart as 234.45.....its just got there, so there might be a pull back.
That wave down started at 238.10, so thereŽs plenty of air above 234.45 when it gets broken....and plenty of time before the BOE announcement for the rally to continue.
No important news today, so IŽll continue with the trend and buy any pull back. The Asian sessian was flat and again its the Europeans who are buyers.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,323
  • Apr 3, 2007 2:30am Apr 3, 2007 2:30am
Quoting Plutonite
Guys, this is a clear breakout. Why are people speculating on Sell Limits and all that nonsense? You're gonna lose money. The sterling is going up until the bulls have dispensed their energy and dropped dead, which wont happen before 235.60 if you look at the chart.

I've gone long since the morning and already made 50 sure-fire pips. This thing is not going down now. Buy sterling, buy much.
you are correct. i exited this trade. over -200 pips.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #2,324
  • Apr 3, 2007 2:32am Apr 3, 2007 2:32am
haha..blame the Russians....hehe Vitaliy!

Anyway...i dont see a weakness it in it coming into wednesday as well...thiss one should go full steam. Some speculation might begin on Thursday when london opens up to interest rates statement announcement...so thats your key.
  • #2,325
  • Apr 3, 2007 2:34am Apr 3, 2007 2:34am
Quoting Islander
I have the 78.6% retrace of the last big wave down on the 4 hour chart as 234.45.....its just got there, so there might be a pull back.
That wave down started at 238.10, so thereŽs plenty of air above 234.45 when it gets broken....and plenty of time before the BOE announcement for the rally to continue.
No important news today, so IŽll continue with the trend and buy any pull back. The Asian sessian was flat and again its the Europeans who are buyers.
as plutonite said. 235.60 is quite feasible for gj.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #2,326
  • Apr 3, 2007 2:40am Apr 3, 2007 2:40am
Quoting Islander
I have the 78.6% retrace of the last big wave down on the 4 hour chart as 234.45.....its just got there, so there might be a pull back.
That wave down started at 238.10, so thereŽs plenty of air above 234.45 when it gets broken....and plenty of time before the BOE announcement for the rally to continue.
No important news today, so IŽll continue with the trend and buy any pull back. The Asian sessian was flat and again its the Europeans who are buyers.
On the 4 hour chart there is a classic EW move in progress, now in W5 with targets of 234.06...just hit, then 235.46 and 237.30 where W5 = W1
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,327
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:14am Apr 3, 2007 3:14am
All trades reached TP at 234.44 (78% fib from Big fall).

UJ 118.35, GU 9814.

Didn't think GJ would reach the 78% fib durig Asia, so I set TP for "best case possible". Now out and regrouping.
  • #2,328
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:17am Apr 3, 2007 3:17am
im still with the carries...slowly harvesting the run...on the technical side..i use the 9sma on the 4hr as breaching point, so were still not in any kind of danger ... yet.
  • #2,329
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:21am Apr 3, 2007 3:21am
Quoting jest1081
im still with the carries...slowly harvesting the run...on the technical side..i use the 9sma on the 4hr as breaching point, so were still not in any kind of danger ... yet.
Hey jest, I would like to know how you work off the 4hr charts... would sure like to learn. Thanks!!
  • #2,330
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:23am Apr 3, 2007 3:23am
Quoting jest1081
...i think its because the price action is wild...thats why it attracts speculators. but i take it as a pip harvester. My entries are usually based on the 4hr.
hi jest1081 what do you look out for on the 4hr chart, pin-bars or do you use any particular indicator?
  • #2,331
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:23am Apr 3, 2007 3:23am
Cable is ranging, i would love to see it blow past 199.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #2,332
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:29am Apr 3, 2007 3:29am
Quoting jest1081
im still with the carries...slowly harvesting the run...on the technical side..i use the 9sma on the 4hr as breaching point, so were still not in any kind of danger ... yet.
Are you recommending a long @ 234.00 if it ever gets there? Buy on dips i suppose?
Still waters run deep
  • #2,333
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:29am Apr 3, 2007 3:29am
nothing really rocket science...some smas and trendlines thats all. I will not discuss systems here since this is a discussion thread. Please forgive me.
  • #2,334
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:37am Apr 3, 2007 3:37am
Can i even reccommend anything? Im not an econmist hehe...you have the charts pasted on your screen, look for SR points. E Important thing is once you analyse and have predetermined your positions...trade your plan.

Quoting barak
Are you recommending a long @ 234.00 if it ever gets there? Buy on dips i suppose?
  • #2,335
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:38am Apr 3, 2007 3:38am
Quoting pipped oFF
Cable is ranging, i would love to see it blow past 199.
Market is pricing a possible rate hike on Thu. In Jan's surprising hike, Cable went to 9913. So this figure remains in the cards.

4hr GJ is indeed overbought and price would reach this actual upwards channel at mid-235... But since UJ just breached important resistance and GU is not that overbought in the 4hr, it seems to be more room up...

I'd like to see prices testing trustworthy supports now to start building long positions at that high levels across the board.
  • #2,336
  • Apr 3, 2007 3:45am Apr 3, 2007 3:45am
Quoting jest1081
Can i even reccommend anything? Im not an econmist hehe...you have the charts pasted on your screen, look for SR points. E Important thing is once you analyse and have predetermined your positions...trade your plan.
Don't worry about me, i have traded my plan, just seems to me i do not understand where do you exit and how do you enter, i'm here to learn. Check my journal if you do not understand my plan.
Simple question is seems like buying dip is what i am getting from you but you do not conquer.
If carries continue to rise for next 2 days, i don't recognise why not buy on dips?
Of course, that wasn't my statement. That's why i'm in doubt with your sentence. Just seeking clarification.
Still waters run deep
  • #2,337
  • Edited 4:01am Apr 3, 2007 3:49am | Edited 4:01am
ceasar, from your analysis where do you think will be a good area for relaoding then? We have fired quite some barrels here, but the Yen's range for the day is still only a little over 100. 233.5 possible?

Barak,

In reply to your statement, when buying on dips analyst will refer price retracement to SR points. These can be the last low/high of a swing, whole numbers, trendlines, etc etc.

But stating that you will win by buying on dips is surely an understatement since we know that in anycase, we can never control price movement.

regards,
jest
  • #2,338
  • Apr 3, 2007 4:03am Apr 3, 2007 4:03am
Alright, theyre pulling back. I made 100 pips with high volumes and decided to back away for now. If it goes back up to 234.90 then probably safe to say you can long again and TP 20 pips from there, maybe even 30.

Of course, I'm being very cautious here. These are high probabililty trades, which is really the only thing people should be doing with GP/JPY. Otherwise you will make a lot of money and lose a freaking huge amount of money as well.

It is worth noting for those who didnt notice, that GP/USD and EUR/JPY were also in a breakout situation today. I wish somebody would give me a 100 grand to put in an account. I would make them rich, i swear.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,339
  • Apr 3, 2007 4:08am Apr 3, 2007 4:08am
Quoting jest1081
ceasar, from your analysis where do you think will be a good area for relaoding then? We have fired quite some barrels here, but the Yen's range for the day is still only a little over 100. 233.5 possible?

Barak,

In reply to your statement, when buying on dips analyst will refer price retracement to SR points. These can be the last low/high of a swing, whole numbers, trendlines, etc etc.

But stating that you will win by buying on dips is surely an understatement since we know that in anycase, we can never control price movement.

regards,
jest
hey jest.

I left a buy limit at 233.50 just in case scenario... I want to find where is Cable supported now... may be 9760/70, don't know... Or if Cable has seen its top at 9820.

We can expect UJ to be supported at 118.35 (last ultra huge resistance). So Cable reaching 9760 and UJ at support (now) is giving us GJ at ± 234.00..

I'm still out to figure out those levels better and if Cable is going to push through 9800 again.... We'd better go carefully on the upside from now on...
  • #2,340
  • Apr 3, 2007 4:10am Apr 3, 2007 4:10am
hey everybody,

while looking at the cart, noticed this kind of weird... seems like GJ is preparing someething for our suprise, i mean all of us traders... Cart H4 shows the formation of shoulder, nearing its completion.... Any comment, anyone?
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