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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #6,061
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:42am Mar 16, 2009 10:42am
Quoting fti
oh, just went short usd scout for ny lunch la.
not attacking, just itchy butt la.
Yes. for this I totally agree.

I found out if I have a position even it is a very small like a scout, I am willing to dance. Otherwise, I may wait for the price it never comes while missing many good opportunities.
  • #6,062
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:46am Mar 16, 2009 10:46am
Quoting Green_David
Yes. for this I totally agree.

I found out if I have a position even it is a very small like a scout, I am willing to dance. Otherwise, I may wait for the price it never comes while missing many good opportunities.
yeah, like I said before.
Without a scout to benchmark and point of reference, feeling her isn;t easy.becomes too subjective with emotional overplay. With a scout in , you would be able to feel better.
either you're on or totally out , if scout is "dead in waters".
At least the feel is objective.

regards
  • #6,063
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:55am Mar 16, 2009 10:55am
Quoting fti
yeah, like I said before.
Without a scout to benchmark and point of reference, feeling her isn;t easy.becomes too subjective with emotional overplay. With a scout in , you would be able to feel better.
either you're on or totally out , if scout is "dead in waters".
At least the feel is objective.

regards
One eye peeled on charts, other peeded on 12 men tearing off the roof, lol.

Short the $ @ 86 scouts in, watching if itwants to try a run for the top.
  • #6,064
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:57am Mar 16, 2009 10:57am
[quote=Green_David;2606456]

Hi David
you write "I am bad dancer"?!? ...curious bad dancing!!!
congratulations!

PS
E/$ bear wants to kill himself - jumping out the window
  • #6,065
  • Mar 16, 2009 10:59am Mar 16, 2009 10:59am
[quote=Gro;2606508]
Quoting Green_David

Hi David
you write "I am bad dancer"?!? ...curious bad dancing!!!
congratulations!

PS
bear wants to kill himself - jumping out the window
no la Gro,
bear didn't jump out the window.
just found out that the bears were in the market.
the big bears just squared for lunch.
but the usd bulls are no where to be seen.

now I have a platform of form for the after lunch strategy.
we'll watch after lunch,
usd bear run is over.
After lunch I gotta get the feel if the usd bulls are dead, which I doubt.
can they recapture market control, that is the question.
if the test of support is decending then we will know won't we.
meantime the scout bleeds until I can get a better feel.
  • #6,066
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:00am Mar 16, 2009 11:00am
Hi, FTI:

Please make comment on my reading of PA for E/U just now . 5M candles chart. It is hindersight, but may be still helpful.

I am on all ears.

Thank you beforehand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 090316 EU 5M.JPG Size: 116 KB
  • #6,067
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:02am Mar 16, 2009 11:02am
[quote=Gro;2606508]
Quoting Green_David

Hi David
you write "I am bad dancer"?!? ...curious bad dancing!!!
congratulations!

PS
E/$ bear wants to kill himself - jumping out the window
I want to be humble, and low-profile. Otherwise to excited the ego will come to me and tell me who is the boss.
  • #6,068
  • Edited 11:14am Mar 16, 2009 11:04am | Edited 11:14am
[quote=fti;2606516]
Quoting Gro

no la Gro,
bear didn't jump out the window.
just found out that the bears were in the market.

... I think - anorexic E/$bear!

anorexic ,crafty E/$bear

  • #6,069
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:14am Mar 16, 2009 11:14am
Quoting fti
Lusan,
What's zen trading?
Are you smoking something too strong?
No smoking at all.
It is that your video reminded me of
the similarity between the Zen practice of breath watching
and
the dance practice of PA bar watching.
In both cases, the teachers reminds us
not to become attach to patterns or thoughts.

Best wishes,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #6,070
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:15am Mar 16, 2009 11:15am
Is U/J price now a sampan, dingy, or a helicopter?

If it is a helicopter, I better cut with 11 -pips.

Who can tell me?

E/U and G/U sitting ducks out?
  • #6,071
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:29am Mar 16, 2009 11:29am
[quote=Gro;2606534]
Quoting fti

... I think - anorexic E/$bear!

anorexic ,crafty E/$bear

no Gro bear not that.
Its just that after more than 14 hours of buillding up bear positions. She gets a little overweighted. Then mkt must find an excuse to shake the weak holders off the trail.The sell off point was 00. how the market dance the 00 will tell us whats her mood.

there are only two possibilities, so watch out for tell tale signs, She will signal you at least 3 times before her move, probably more. so you may want to prepare another scout, the earlier scout had done his job.
If the other scout deploy, also gets in trouble , based on your reading then we know that we are on the wrong trail. Otherwise the trend is intact.

but if the trend remains intact, do not be decieved that a Eur run is eminent. Note that we are on the forth day of bear usd run.so be prepared for a fight at the tops. Let the mkt show where it resists, do not have R/S or lines. You will truely be able to feel where it truely resist. Failing that it resist , you will have windfall profits. Then take opportunity to slowly diffuse any attacks that you may had implimented during the run, if any.

If resistence is detected, bail out scout and army in a hurry.

making any sense?
  • #6,072
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:29am Mar 16, 2009 11:29am
hummm will it or not?
  • #6,073
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:32am Mar 16, 2009 11:32am
Quoting fti
no Gro bear not that.
Its just that after more than 14 hours of buillding up bear positions. She gets a little overweighted. Then mkt must find an excuse to shake the weak holders off the trail.The sell off point was 00. how the market dance the 00 will tell us whats her mood.

there are only two possibilities, so watch out for tell tale signs, She will signal you at least 3 times before her move, probably more. so you may want to prepare another scout, the earlier scout had done his job.
If the other scout deploy, also...
Fti,

It is a pleasure to read your words again.

regards,
  • #6,074
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:34am Mar 16, 2009 11:34am
Quoting luSan
No smoking at all.
It is that your video reminded me of
the similarity between the Zen practice of breath watching
and
the dance practice of PA bar watching.
In both cases, the teachers reminds us
not to become attach to patterns or thoughts.

Best wishes,
Oh, Lusan , OK I miss understood, I thought you discovered, new stuff. Like Watts said, we make the thought, its all actually related.
  • #6,075
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:35am Mar 16, 2009 11:35am
Quoting luSan
No smoking at all.
It is that your video reminded me of
the similarity between the Zen practice of breath watching
and
the dance practice of PA bar watching.
In both cases, the teachers reminds us
not to become attach to patterns or thoughts.

Best wishes,
Hi Lusan,

I think that in „The New Market Wizards” by J.Schwager, in chapter about psychology there was an interview with a trader who considered himself as a Zen trader. He sad that his trades are based just on a feeling about the price(that trader was referring to Zen archers who were shooting arrows without purpose to hit the target) . He wanted to stay anonymous because his clients might be anxious about his method.
So maybe there are some Zen traders?

Ronin
the worst horse can be the best one
  • #6,076
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:36am Mar 16, 2009 11:36am
Quoting Green_David
Is U/J price now a sampan, dingy, or a helicopter?

If it is a helicopter, I better cut with 11 -pips.

Who can tell me?

E/U and G/U sitting ducks out?
Ai ya whats with the pips, think from your feel, never think because of pips.
If its good, strategise a fight plan.
If you feel uncomfortable, just set it free la.
At least then your thinking will not be paralysed with the position.

Based on YEN chart read , there is a little usd drop expected, upside usd potential already tested, and nothing doing there.


regards
  • #6,077
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:38am Mar 16, 2009 11:38am
Quoting fti
Ai ya whats with the pips, think from your feel, never think because of pips.
If its good, strategise a fight plan.
If you feel uncomfortable, just set it free la.

regards
Thanks.

My E/U and G/U long scout are also in. Now with +10 on everage.

today's dancing is good. Seems Trichet said nothing.
  • #6,078
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:39am Mar 16, 2009 11:39am
President Obama on the tube, offering AIG bonuses as hatchet material.
  • #6,079
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:43am Mar 16, 2009 11:43am
now the pic clears, lets see if the bears that bailed can get on board again without chasing.

preparing attack sequense for after lunch now.
its going to be fast so no commentary from me.
Each man look after you own butts.
and don't jump the gun, remember after lunch and when the head are lipping, please, or you butt itches, whichever comes first.

regards
  • #6,080
  • Mar 16, 2009 11:43am Mar 16, 2009 11:43am
[quote=fti;2606620][quote=Gro;2606534]

no Gro bear not that.
Its just that after more than 14 hours of buillding up bear positions. She gets a little overweighted. Then mkt must find an excuse to shake the weak holders off the trail.The sell off point was 00. how the market dance the 00 will tell us whats her mood.

Hi FTI

Thanks for the lesson
I have to read slowly (I better understand the picture, so I am learning what you write).

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