How to tell if Impact is Good or Bad?

Hello, when looking at the News Calendar, how do you tell if a High Impact notification for a currency is going to gave a good effect or bad?

EG: if I see a RED high impact notification for CHF, it might be good to go long on AUD/CHF if it is bad news but what if it's good news? How to tell?

Thank you

I'll answer your question if you answer mine first.

How do you make over 800 posts on this forum and not know the answer to that?

My way to see the news.... I scroll down the screen to the point I just don't see them....

And I stay away from those insane NFP fridays.... better saying.... I stay away from almost every friday....

Cheers!

HT

Sure, thanks.
OK, I've been around for a while yes but have never really payed attention to what the Calendar news is telling me and would like to start.
If there is some great new for the currency, will the High Impact notice be Green instead of Red?

Thanks again, hope you can clarify this for me.

There was some Red News for CHF yesterday and if I bought AUDCHF just before the news, WOW Look at pics

The color coding system is pre-determined. Those that are yellow are deemed to be of low significance, with orange next then red. The red ones are those that can move the market quite a bit when the info is released.

Yesterday was the interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank. It was cut more than expected so it had a huge impact on the CHF. Things like employment numbers, interest rates, and whenever a head of a central bank starts yapping (how do you know when a banker is lying? His lips are moving) tend to be high-impact events.

There is no way really to know in advance what the news will be. What you can do is figure out scenarios and how you think the market will react to each one, and then how you will react as well.

An example would be the Non-farm payroll numbers released the first Friday for the US. It's been a high-impact one for the last few years. If the expected number (which is shown on the calendar) is say, just as an example, 300k, then you need to plan out what will be the market's reaction if

a. the number is under the estimate
b. at the estimate
c. over the estimate

Bear in mind that the market prices in a lot of this stuff before the event. So if the number comes in at 280 or 320 you might not get much of a reaction. But if it's quite a bit from the estimate, say, 220 or 380, then you'll probably see a strong reaction.

You need to have a plan as to what you'll do for every scenario. Trying to position yourself BEFORE the event is a tough game to win. It's better to let the market react, then try to go along for the ride. Or just to sit it out and let the market go. However, most of the market's volatility is generated by these events so you're missing out on what we all need...movement.

I hope that helps.

OK, yeah, helps me out a bit. Thanks