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Silent Service Method

  • #441
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:51pm Mar 12, 2009 10:51pm
UBS AG forex trading model returns a whopping 5%! Might I suggest doing the opposite of what this model suggests?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency

Seems to me these bankers should simply hire some folks off the CW and J16 threads and forget about their fancy models.
  • #442
  • Mar 12, 2009 11:03pm Mar 12, 2009 11:03pm
Hey, clock.

Sorry if I'm asking a newbie question that you've already addressed in another post but I'm wondering if you have an objective method of determining the height of your S/R zones.

For me it's purely visual. I draw the zone and tweak it until it looks..."right".
  • #443
  • Mar 12, 2009 11:09pm Mar 12, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting opie999
Hey, clock.

Sorry if I'm asking a newbie question that you've already addressed in another post but I'm wondering if you have an objective method of determining the height of your S/R zones.

For me it's purely visual. I draw the zone and tweak it until it looks..."right".
That's pretty much what I do as well.

Clockwork
  • #444
  • Mar 12, 2009 11:12pm Mar 12, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting dengzhi
CW,
how do you determine what is a "strong" currency?

thanks
-DZ

In my example, I was saying buy the stronger of the two in the cross-pair.....

So if AUD was stronger than NZD, you want to buy AUD/USD. This only counts if they are both stronger than the USD.

So you would have in order of strength:

AUD
NZD
USD

You want to own AUD, and sell USD in this case.
  • #445
  • Mar 12, 2009 11:12pm Mar 12, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
That's pretty much what I do as well.

Clockwork
Lol! Cool. Now all we have to do is write an indi for it!
  • #446
  • Edited 12:59am Mar 13, 2009 12:53am | Edited 12:59am
I seem to be missing something, and johnyonspot touched on it, but once a resistance/support is broken, do we watch the H4 or H1 to see if it is holding before entering (obviously the D1 could possibly be too long and cause us to lose the trade entry)? What about in instances like today with USDCHF where obviously the bad CHF news shot it up 500 pips in an hour or two, and brought it to the new support of 1.1850 which seems to be holding. I already got 60 pips out of it once the support seemed to hold, but should I now hold this position until it moves UP to the next level? I realize that no situation is the same, but is that the general idea here? Like I said, I seem to be missing something
  • #447
  • Mar 13, 2009 1:15am Mar 13, 2009 1:15am
Anyone notice this PB developing on the monthly DOW JONES INDEX? It still has 2 weeks to complete the bar but might be worth keeping your eyes on. Could this be calling a bottom or just a short term reversal?

There is also confluence with a PPZ going back to '86 and the 61.8% FIB.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #448
  • Mar 13, 2009 1:38am Mar 13, 2009 1:38am
Taking pins against the trend... I'm thinking CW wouldn't.
  • #449
  • Edited 3:09am Mar 13, 2009 2:45am | Edited 3:09am
But on the monthly chart going back 20 years the trend is technically still up (starts at bottom left of screen and goes up).

And even if this was present on the daily (down trend) a PB can signal the reversal of a trend, can't it?
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #450
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:36am Mar 13, 2009 4:36am
Quoting clockwork71
In my example, I was saying buy the stronger of the two in the cross-pair.....

So if AUD was stronger than NZD, you want to buy AUD/USD. This only counts if they are both stronger than the USD.

So you would have in order of strength:

AUD
NZD
USD

You want to own AUD, and sell USD in this case.

Thanks for this,please can you give us more examples?
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #451
  • Mar 13, 2009 6:59am Mar 13, 2009 6:59am
Clockwork - Thank you so much for starting this thread - If the other praises haven't enlarged your head enough, you can throw this one in with 'em.

Also, my wife is very mad at you, I have been reading this thread through the last 4 waking hours and not paying too much attention to her...next time you start something like this, please don't make it so interesting and so addictive.

Joking aside - I really appreciate your insight. I am currently practicing drawing S&R zones on a ton of obscure pairs not even looking for a trade (although I do have to say I like the recent 4H pin bar on the USD off of 2900 - I have a short order in @ 2850).

Again thanks and I look forward to following this thread religiously.
  • #452
  • Mar 13, 2009 7:55am Mar 13, 2009 7:55am
Quoting alyehoud
I seem to be missing something, and johnyonspot touched on it, but once a resistance/support is broken, do we watch the H4 or H1 to see if it is holding before entering (obviously the D1 could possibly be too long and cause us to lose the trade entry)?...

Yes, that is pretty much the idea. We like to see it break through, and pull back to support and hold. Perhaps a 4 hour pinbar or something. (On your daily example.)

As a side note, that trade formed a 1 hour pinbar on support. (from memory.)

CW
  • #453
  • Mar 13, 2009 7:56am Mar 13, 2009 7:56am
Quoting Rabid
Taking pins against the trend... I'm thinking CW wouldn't.

Actually, I DO take counter-trend pins.....I tend to aim for the next "hurdle" is the main difference. (I don't trust them to run and run like I do a trend trade.)

And it's in an uptrend still.......if you look at the big picture.

CW
  • #454
  • Mar 13, 2009 7:58am Mar 13, 2009 7:58am
Quoting lordgbengs
Thanks for this,please can you give us more examples?

The other common one is the relationship between these three:

EUR/USD
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP


What you are doing is Algebra. You are taking the "USD" out of the equation, once you determine USD overall weakness.

Essentially you want to match highly correlated trading partners.
  • #455
  • Mar 13, 2009 8:30am Mar 13, 2009 8:30am
Quoting clockwork71
The other common one is the relationship between these three:

EUR/USD
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP


What you are doing is Algebra. You are taking the "USD" out of the equation, once you determine USD overall weakness.

Essentially you want to match highly correlated trading partners.
Thank you CW,
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #456
  • Mar 13, 2009 8:38am Mar 13, 2009 8:38am
EUR/USD
USD/JPY

minus USD

equals EUR/JPY
  • #457
  • Mar 13, 2009 9:06am Mar 13, 2009 9:06am
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, that is pretty much the idea. We like to see it break through, and pull back to support and hold. Perhaps a 4 hour pinbar or something. (On your daily example.)

As a side note, that trade formed a 1 hour pinbar on support. (from memory.)

CW
Thanks for the clarification. And, ya, good memory - it did form a pinbar on the H1, 500pips from end to end. That hour made some people very happy, and some others very sad.
  • #458
  • Mar 13, 2009 10:16am Mar 13, 2009 10:16am
Might be a nice opportunity.

edit: hmm now that I look at it again the outside bar (bar before the current bar) would suggest a continuation down if I'm interpreting it correctly. In this case it might be better to wait for more bullish confirmations.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #459
  • Mar 13, 2009 10:20am Mar 13, 2009 10:20am
Quoting Lou
EUR/USD
USD/JPY

minus USD

equals EUR/JPY
Uh, yeah...kinda. But don't drag this out too far. It has more to do with relationships in pairs. To be honest, EUR/JPY follows world stock markets more than anything. It has to do with the flow of money around the world. (In and of itself could be an entire thesis.)
  • #460
  • Mar 13, 2009 2:38pm Mar 13, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting Noloqy
Might be a nice opportunity.

edit: hmm now that I look at it again the outside bar (bar before the current bar) would suggest a continuation down if I'm interpreting it correctly. In this case it might be better to wait for more bullish confirmations.
Take a zoom out at weekly charts.... US/CAD is making an outside bearish bar at a huge resistance zone (1.28-1.29).... I would be careful in longs right now... (... just my point of view.... it would be nice to hear Clockwork's thoughts on this...)

Cheers!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
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