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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #165,561
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:00pm Mar 12, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting malcolmb14
that has kept me out of the market today ..... should retrace . ES was going insane today ... did the recession end in one day ?

looks like mark up to me on light vol ...
GJ esignal volume chart plz
  • #165,562
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:12pm Mar 12, 2009 5:12pm
Quoting Eulogy
GJ esignal volume chart plz

will post later .. out and about right now
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #165,563
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:34pm Mar 12, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting Eulogy
GJ esignal volume chart plz
will post later .. after the signal ends, out and about right now
  • #165,564
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:37pm Mar 12, 2009 5:37pm
Quoting Eulogy
GJ esignal volume chart plz

heres one in the mean time....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #165,565
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:39pm Mar 12, 2009 5:39pm
Just looked at the charts again and my bias has changed. . . looking at the daily a low has been put in place and th daily is shifting toward further move up. . .

however, 1hr tf and lower are showing signs of price being way OB. . .
my bias is now shifted to price increasing but with a pull back to perhaps 35/34.80's. . .

could see price range between 135/134.90/80 and 136.50's until it breaks. . .
there is support below but I think a low has been put in base on what I'm seeing. . .

the 4hr chart is showing signs of a further up move as well however it is support a down cycle
as it's up cycle has been met and exceeded. . .

BEWARE!

Until I see a break of this support formerly resistance I'm keeping my SL tight.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #165,566
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:48pm Mar 12, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting forexlion
will post later .. after the signal ends, out and about right now
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #165,567
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:52pm Mar 12, 2009 5:52pm
Quoting quecee5
Just looked at the charts again and my bias has changed. . . looking at the daily a low has been put in place and th daily is shifting toward further move up. . .

however, 1hr tf and lower are showing signs of price being way OB. . .
my bias is now shifted to price increasing but with a pull back to perhaps 35/34.80's. . .

could see price range between 135/134.90/80 and 136.50's until it breaks. . .
there is support below but I think a low has been put in base on what I'm seeing. . .

the 4hr chart is showing signs of a further up move as well...
Unless:

  1. 136.09 breaks, we do not go north, this is the minor resistance for a drop back to 127.
  2. 135.52 support breaks, then we tank again.
  3. so the current important range is 136.09 / 135.52

The direction in which we break this range decides the new targets.

Overall, My bias is to the downside.

  • #165,568
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:55pm Mar 12, 2009 5:55pm
Quote
GBP/JPY's fall from 141.48 extends further to as low as 132.86 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 136.09 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, prior break of 135.52 support serves as an early indication that whole rebound from 118.81 has completed at 141.74 already. Further decline should now be seen towards 127.08 support first. Break will confirm this case and bring retest of 118.81 low. On the upside, however, above 136.09 will turn intraday outlook neutral again but break risk will now remain on the downside before a break out of 141.74 resistance.



In the bigger picture, GBP/JPY is now in consolidation after fall from 215.87 completed the five wave sequence (184.47, 197.42, 129.71, 141.52, 118.81). However, it's uncertain whether such correction will develop into sideway pattern between 118.81 and 141.52 cluster resistance (23.6% retracement of 215.87 to 118.81 at 141.71) or strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 215.87 to 118.81 at 155.88 and above. But in any case, decisive break of 118.81 low is needed to confirm that medium term down trend has resumed. Otherwise, even in case of deep fall, GBP/JPY is just treated as developing in to medium term consolidation with at least another rise before completion.

Taken from actionforex
  • #165,569
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:55pm Mar 12, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting forexlion
Unless:

  1. 136.09 breaks, we do not go north, this is the minor resistance for a drop back to 127.
  2. 135.52 support breaks, then we tank again.
  3. so the current important range is 136.09 / 135.52

The direction in which we break this range decides the new targets.

Overall, My bias is to the downside.

we r saying the same thing bro. . .LOL!
the take-away here is if u r short keep tight SL losses - based on my charts a low has been put in and the impulsive move indicates smart money want to take price higher. . .
  • #165,570
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:57pm Mar 12, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting quecee5
we r saying the same thing bro. . .LOL!
the take-away here is if u r short keep tight SL losses - based on my charts a low has been put in and the impulsive move indicates smart money want to take price higher. . .
or it could mean profit booking before tanking again, since everyone is following the major trend down.
  • #165,571
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:58pm Mar 12, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting forexlion
Taken from actionforex
bro read yr charts and not that crap - its known that they have been absolutely wrong most often than not. . . I don't base my analysis off such releases I let the DATA speak which is the charts. . .

food for thought!
  • #165,572
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:58pm Mar 12, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting quecee5
Just looked at the charts again and my bias has changed. . .
Q, you seemed pretty certain the down trend was still intact... just the daily chart changed your bias so easily? I still see down:

 

  1. failed to close above even daily 50ema
  2. 4 hour 200ema not even breached
  3. price failed at 50% fib of most recent move down
  4. my daily chart trend line shows clear break and retest next day, major support was broken

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #165,573
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:02pm Mar 12, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting forexlion
or it could mean profit booking before tanking again, since everyone is following the major trend down.
not sure what it means - the charts is the only thing we can go by at this point. therefore only time will tell once we get moving - thats the only thing we have at this point to go by since we are not privy to the minds of smart money. . .
  • #165,574
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:06pm Mar 12, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting forexlion
or it could mean profit booking before tanking again, since everyone is following the major trend down.
impulse move = buying.
  • #165,575
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:08pm Mar 12, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting Big Bruv
even if we do not break the UTL..i am now a bull...

I will buy any dip @ or around the 133 level..if we get there..

waiting for daily close...baby..will post chart with reasons then


ok, like i said earlier, my bias is long....
i will buy from 135.30..and will add lots is price drops every 100 pips.
Tp1=141
TP2 - 150, then Tp3=170
Sl is 5 pips away from last low.

reasons:
1. we are still in a up trend (daily)
2. bullish HD on daily- MACD
3. force index is going into buy area
4. we have failed to close below 134.40 (which i clearly stated was crucial to any down moves on the daily)

Ok baby...off to bed....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #165,576
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:10pm Mar 12, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting PracticalPip
Q, you seemed pretty certain the down trend was still intact... just the daily chart changed your bias so easily? I still see down:

 

  1. failed to close above even daily 50ema
  2. 4 hour 200ema not even breached
  3. price failed at 50% fib of most recent move down
  4. my daily chart trend line shows clear break and retest next day, major support was broken

not saying that at all. . . all I'm saying is based on the charts it looks like a low has been put in short-term so we could see further price increase short-term before we see the low taken out. . . we'll know if support formerly resistance holds - which is located at 35.50/35.30 area. . . the move looks impulsive and there is a nice pin on the daily chart indicating a reversal atm.

that's what I'm looking at atm. . . I'm short from 136.50 area due to price failure to close above that resistance formerly support but that could change with another impulsive move. . .

remember the uptrend channel was breached at ar'd 37.30 area which is only a figure up from where we are now which is peanuts for the beast. . .

got to look at the glass half empty and half full. . .
  • #165,577
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:16pm Mar 12, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting quecee5
not sure what it means - the charts is the only thing we can go by at this point. therefore only time will tell once we get moving - thats the only thing we have at this point to go by since we are not privy to the minds of smart money. . .
The wood are now in our yard mate.. we need to chop them... YES.. 135.50 and all other known resistance levels turns to support now...

even so 135.50 is a double level with both gann and 50 ema [1h].. so it is expected to be tough...

I understand your fear, after yesterday NY session, it was hard to trade, expecialy on lower TF.. so I congratulate to Malcolm if he step Out of the trading and recognise the intervention, becouse even the charts shows you a nice setup, PA was set to go only in one direction, and no S/R levels were respected..

Finaly, I dont have any "ïntervention indicator", i have to ask lion or Godfrey to code some for us

but, yes, we are all agreed that the range is in made, now between 136.20 and 135.50. until is broken,,
  • #165,578
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:24pm Mar 12, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting Piters
The wood are now in our yard mate.. we need to chop them... YES.. 135.50 and all other known resistance levels turns to support now...

even so 135.50 is a double level with both gann and 50 ema [1h].. so it is expected to be tough...

I understand your fear, after yesterday NY session, it was hard to trade, expecialy on lower TF.. so I congratulate to Malcolm if he step Out of the trading and recognise the intervention, becouse even the charts shows you a nice setup, PA was set to go only in one direction, and no S/R levels were...
agreed - we must remember there r newbies on this thread so we have to be explicit when posting. . .
  • #165,579
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:30pm Mar 12, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting Piters
The wood are now in our yard mate.. we need to chop them... YES.. 135.50 and all other known resistance levels turns to support now...

even so 135.50 is a double level with both gann and 50 ema [1h].. so it is expected to be tough...

I understand your fear, after yesterday NY session, it was hard to trade, expecialy on lower TF.. so I congratulate to Malcolm if he step Out of the trading and recognise the intervention, becouse even the charts shows you a nice setup, PA was set to go only in one direction, and no S/R levels were respected.....

yeah it is all good after the fact ... now I sit back and think , s**t look at this move I missed ....lol . The market was a little nuts even for me and i did ok in the 1st 2 hours of trading on GU , GJ and ES
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #165,580
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:31pm Mar 12, 2009 6:31pm
just a comparison from last year's chart ar'd this time of the year.
i'm not sure if the taken out LTL is the real LTL we need to look @.
noticed the similarityin both?

upper chart: 2008
lower chart: now

just a thought.
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