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Silent Service Method

  • #361
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:12pm Mar 10, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting reddog19
Chris,
How do you determine that USDSGD is in an overall downtrend?
When I look at the weekly, it has been making HH's and HL's since August 08.
What time period do you use to determine the overall trend?
If I might answer this. To get an overall picture of what a market is doing LONG TERM, get on a weekly or monthly chart and zoom right out. This will give you the bigger picture.

Below is an image of USD/SGD zoomed out. You can see here we've been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2002. The recent move up has just been a retrace.

Hope this helps.
Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsgd w 100309.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #362
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:41pm Mar 10, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
I think what the more experienced traders would tell you is that everyone is different and it depends on your trading style....
So most would use this system mostly/purely based on market orders once the expected price level is reached and stabilized (post-retrace), versus my approach of setting pending buy/sell orders and hoping my S/L doesn't get triggered due to a retrace, or worse a failure of the new support?
  • #363
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:51pm Mar 10, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting Chris P
If I might answer this. To get an overall picture of what a market is doing LONG TERM, get on a weekly or monthly chart and zoom right out. This will give you the bigger picture.

Below is an image of USD/SGD zoomed out. You can see here we've been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2002. The recent move up has just been a retrace.

Hope this helps.
Chris
Thanks for your reply Chris P,

I can appreciate what you are saying but isn't the "technical" direction of the trend determined by whether it is making HH's & HL's or LH's & LL's?

Also, if we digress to the equity market, then every major stock is always in an uptrend and at the moment is only going through a retracement.

I guess it is all a matter of time and data relevance. If I only gave you the data for USD/SGD for the last 6 to 8 months wouldn't you agree that we were in an overall uptrend?

As we are trading the daily time frame, would not the overall weekly and monthly trend for the last 6 months be more relevant (to our current trading)

Just my thoughts,
  • #364
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:04pm Mar 10, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting alyehoud
So most would use this system mostly/purely based on market orders once the expected price level is reached and stabilized (post-retrace), versus my approach of setting pending buy/sell orders and hoping my S/L doesn't get triggered due to a retrace, or worse a failure of the new support?
Sort of, except for the use of market orders. I do my best when I don't use market orders at all. I use stop orders and believe most do. I like to use them because it helps ensure that your trade has momentum going in your direction, assuming it is placed correctly. I liken using market orders to trying to catch a falling knife and its rare that I use them and rarer still that they work out well. So in a nutshell, I would wait for a retrace and then some sort of bullish PA, like a PB or BUOB or dblhc, then place a buy stop so many pips above the PA signal. Take this all with a grain of salt as I am pretty new to this stuff, but this is what I've gleaned in my studies.
  • #365
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:06pm Mar 10, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting reddog19
Thanks for your reply Chris P,

I can appreciate what you are saying but isn't the "technical" direction of the trend determined by whether it is making HH's & HL's or LH's & LL's?....

I understand where you are coming from reddog. I guess this is kind of subjective to each trader. As we are using the weekly areas of support and resistance to determine where we should be looking for our trades, I think it's important to look at the weekly trend.

Personally if I'm trading a lower timeframe, I would only consider a trend broken, if for example it broke and closed significantly above a 61% fib retrace of the last move. Another option might be to draw a trendline connecting the highs of the move. Once this is broken we could then begin to think that the trend is changing. Neither of these have happened on the Weekly yet.

This does not mean however that you can't have trends within trends. ie a daily uptrend within a weekly downtrend. IMO though it's always good to bear the bigger picture in mind when you're trading the lower tf's and know where the support/resistance is, ie when the smaller tf trend may end.

Just my take on this, but I'd be interested to hear Clockworks' views.
  • #366
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:18pm Mar 10, 2009 1:18pm
Hey Clockwork,


Excellent thread. I've been learning a lot here... Each day I realize more and more that all that we need to do is WAIT the market shows us where to go.
it's all about waiting...

thanks a lot!
  • #367
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:07pm Mar 10, 2009 2:07pm
Looks like we have an 8 hr Pin on AUDUSD 4hr chart. First support looks like .6360, then 0.6300 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.4hr.031009.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #368
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:23pm Mar 10, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting Chris P
If I might answer this. To get an overall picture of what a market is doing LONG TERM, get on a weekly or monthly chart and zoom right out. This will give you the bigger picture.

Below is an image of USD/SGD zoomed out. You can see here we've been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2002. The recent move up has just been a retrace.

Hope this helps.
Chris
Thank you for posting this chart. IBFX doesn't have very much data on this pair......I use GFT for long-term. (Although my GFT is only a demo feed.)
  • #369
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:24pm Mar 10, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting psneto
Hey Clockwork,


Excellent thread. I've been learning a lot here... Each day I realize more and more that all that we need to do is WAIT the market shows us where to go.
it's all about waiting...

thanks a lot!

Jesse Livermore (the greatest stock trader of all time) once said "We are paid to sit on our hands." This is true.....the market is obvious most of the time....if you zoom out far enough, and wait.
  • #370
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:27pm Mar 10, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting Chris P
I understand where you are coming from reddog. I guess this is kind of subjective to each trader. As we are using the weekly areas of support and resistance to determine where we should be looking for our trades, I think it's important to look at the weekly trend.

Personally if I'm trading a lower timeframe, I would only consider a trend broken, if for example it broke and closed significantly above a 61% fib retrace of the last move. Another option might be to draw a trendline connecting the highs of the move. Once this is broken we could then...
To simplify things....I always consider the weekly trend the "overall" trend. (Monthly is the same thing as weekly.....if you think about it.)

My trend picture always effects the exit of a trade more than anything else.
  • #371
  • Edited 7:24pm Mar 10, 2009 2:29pm | Edited 7:24pm
Quoting reddog19
Thanks for your reply Chris P,

I can appreciate what you are saying but isn't the "technical" direction of the trend determined by whether it is making HH's & HL's or LH's & LL's?

Also, if we digress to the equity market, then every major stock is always in an uptrend and at the moment is only going through a retracement.

I guess it is all a matter of time and data relevance. If I only gave you the data for USD/SGD for the last 6 to 8 months wouldn't you agree that we were in an overall uptrend?

As we are trading...

It matters, until you get to serious areas like where we are at now.......

Don't get too confused. Jacko says if the chart is lower on the left than right.....you are in a uptrend. I agree 110%....

Use the weekly chart as a guide......the overall chart.
  • #372
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:30pm Mar 10, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting alyehoud
So most would use this system mostly/purely based on market orders once the expected price level is reached and stabilized (post-retrace), versus my approach of setting pending buy/sell orders and hoping my S/L doesn't get triggered due to a retrace, or worse a failure of the new support?
Price action is still important. Anything based on a particular price only is aggressive, which is fine - as long as you can handle the risk.

CW
  • #373
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:35pm Mar 10, 2009 2:35pm
I know many of you are probably skipping this part. Trust me, it's important. Do you know how much of your account you are comfortable risking? I know that 1% doesn't sound like much.....but Bernie Madoff scammed all those people promising only 1% a month!

Research compound interest. It's the most potent weapon you have. If you cannot get wealthy with decent risk management with your account size, add to it over time. It's a marathon - not a damn sprint.

Seriously, ask yourself what you are comfortable with. There is no "one size fits all" type of answer. I know people that risk up to 2%, and some that only risk .25% - all of which do quite well. The reason is because they are comfortable in their trading.

YOU NEED TO BE AS WELL.

Once I figured out this question.....it was the first step towards being profitable.

CW
  • #374
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:55pm Mar 10, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting clockwork71
Thank you for posting this chart. IBFX doesn't have very much data on this pair......I use GFT for long-term. (Although my GFT is only a demo feed.)
np

I find FXPro has good depth of data.
  • #375
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:16pm Mar 10, 2009 3:16pm
how did the bearish pin-bar at wkly resistance look to you?
  • #376
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:29pm Mar 10, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting dkmb92
how did the bearish pin-bar at wkly resistance look to you?
You mean the daily pin I shorted a while back? It looked great. It didn't work out though. It happens. I got my money back and more since then.
  • #377
  • Edited 4:09pm Mar 10, 2009 3:57pm | Edited 4:09pm
Curious still CW, how far back do you look on the weekly for trend? I have a charting package dating back to '79. Mostly they're lower but some majors like the Euro are in the middle. Some look like they're in an uptrend back to '03, then a couple more clicks of a scroll mouse and it's completely different. How far back do you look? Like many I struggle with this and I want to avoid 'form fitting.'
  • #378
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:07pm Mar 10, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting clockwork71
It matters, until you get to serious areas like where we are at now.......

Don't get too confused. Jacko says if the chart is lower on the left than right.....you are in a downtrend. I agree 110%....

Use the weekly chart as a guide......the overall chart.
I must be getting old but I do not get the reference to a chart being lower on the left than the right indicating a downtrend. I would view it as just the opposite since the incline is upward toward the right from the left.

Would you mind clarifying that point for me since I just plain don't see it that way. Thanks
  • #379
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:24pm Mar 10, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting Jollyroger
I must be getting old but I do not get the reference to a chart being lower on the left than the right indicating a downtrend. I would view it as just the opposite since the incline is upward toward the right from the left.

Would you mind clarifying that point for me since I just plain don't see it that way. Thanks
It gets a bit hard to distinguish up or down with the left to right when you see charts like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_weekly.png Size: 7 KB
  • #380
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:24pm Mar 10, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting Jollyroger
I must be getting old but I do not get the reference to a chart being lower on the left than the right indicating a downtrend. I would view it as just the opposite since the incline is upward toward the right from the left.

Would you mind clarifying that point for me since I just plain don't see it that way. Thanks

I MUST BE THE ONE GETTING OLD.....I MEANT UPTREND!
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