From 10k to 1 million...

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_090309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_090309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_080309.png

Good morning!

Review

The Dollar was a bit stronger yesterday and I took the chance to enter new long positions in the EUR/USD @1.26378, AUD/USD @0.63218 and a short position in the USD/JPY @98.947 (which I've closed right now with some profit).


Analysis

Just ranging markets. I'm more and more confident about a bottom in the currency markets especially for the Aussie.


Median Grid

No change.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: short
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

In general: As we are in a huge range I'll buy the lows and sell the highs...

AUD/USD

Currently long with 3 positions around 0.6320, 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000.
Targets: 0.6590; 0.6800

EUR/USD

I have 5k units long at 1.26923 and added another 5k at 1.26378.
Target: 1.2780

USD/NOK

No change.
Target: 6.6500

Gold

No change.
Target: 990.

Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.26246
27-Feb-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978
06-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.26923
09-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.26378
09-Mar-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.63218


Leverage: 3.6


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6380
EUR/USD 1.2710
GBP/USD 1.3830
USD/CHF 1.1480
USD/JPY 98.50
USD/NOK 7.0700
Gold 916
Oil 44.50
Dow Jones 6580


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,117.31 (-8.83)
Account equity: 8,837.63 (-3.07%)

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_100309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_100309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_090309.png

Hi Xaron,
thanks for these great thread.
The Dollar is irrational strong and Nok is fundamental strong.
what do You think, to which side the grid will brake out at first and why?
where do you get fundamental informations about the pair?

Thanks Karsten! If you look at the chart you just see a range with the upper boundary around 7.30. Fundamentally the NOK should be much stronger and those levels are real bargains for the long term. Actually no one can know which way it will break out and when. But I prefer a breakout to the south. The current dollar strength is only temporary.

A very good daily read: http://www.dailypfennig.com

Hi Xaron,
thank You for Your answer, I also thought like this because I read the daily Pfennig. I hope we will be right. I have had good experience with the 4x1 strategy and want to by only in one direction.
Good luck.

Ha! Great to see that there are others who use the 4x1. I'm more and more confident that we have some kind of a bottom now (in the currency markets! not in the stock markets). If so this will give a great potential.

Good morning!

Review

I took some profits yesterday, just to keep the scoreboard ticking. The Dollar lost ground yesterday.

I've opened a EUR/USD short at 1.2785 yesterday but closed it stupidly with a small loss instead of letting it run. Bah... Well instead I added some more longs the way down to 1.26... I added 2 units Gold below 900 as well.


Analysis

No change, just ranging markets. I'm more and more confident about a bottom in the currency markets especially for the Aussie.


Median Grid

No change.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: short
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

In general: As we are in a huge range I'll buy the lows and sell the highs...

AUD/USD

Currently long with 2 positions around 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000.
Targets: 0.6590; 0.6800

EUR/USD

I have 3 positions each 5k units long at 1.26315, 1.27270 and 1.27988 open.
Target: 1.28 for the first two positions

USD/NOK

No change.
Target: 6.6500

Gold

I've added 2 units at 898.010.
Target: 990.

Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978
10-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.27988
10-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.27270
10-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.26315
10-Mar-09 BUY 2 units XAU/USD @898.010

Leverage: 3.8


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6425
EUR/USD 1.2650
GBP/USD 1.3740
USD/CHF 1.1650
USD/JPY 98.60
USD/NOK 7.0000
Gold 900
Oil 43.80
Dow Jones 6900


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,233.61 (-7.66%)
Account equity: 8,843.98 (-4.22%)

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_110309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_110309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_100309.png

Hi Xaron,
I want to make every month in average about 15%. Starting with 100,- euros, I would have in four years 100.000,- Euros.
I just want to make steady and regularly profits with BWILC 4X1 and keep away from high risk because I know it is stupid.
I have small experience which level of monthly profit can hold over long time.
Is 15% realistic? is it too low or too high ?
Do You have a plan like this?

15% in average is a bit hard to reach but it's possible. Maybe not with $100 in the beginning as losses don't hurt that much but if you have $100,000 you will have to trade smaller I think. Dirk itself made about 170% in one year, so yes, it is possible.

It's not about how to make the money with the 4x1 strategy, it's more about how to not lose what you've gained before...

Personally I try to make about 60% p.a.

Good morning!

Review

Yesterday I did not trade but the day before I took some profits again (closed two EUR/USD longs, one USD/JPY short and one AUD/USD long). Actually I closed the USD/NOK short as well, what a mistake if I look at the charts today. I just wanted to take some profit wait for a pullback and enter another short but... well...


Analysis

Fundamentally the same game. But risk aversion seems to take a step back currently. Nevertheless the problems haven't been solved neither in US nor in EU so I just stick to my range. At the current levels I decided to stick in a short in the EUR/USD...


Median Grid

No change.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: short
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

As I said, buy the lows of the range and sell the highs.

AUD/USD

Currently long with 1 position at 0.6570
Target: 0.6800

EUR/USD

As we are near my top of the grid I've entered a short and will add to that position if it goes higher (around 1.30)

USD/NOK

Have closed my short with a small profit. Damn...

Gold

Two positions open.
Target: 990.

Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
10-Mar-09 BUY 2 units XAU/USD @898.010
13-Mar-09 SELL 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.29159


Leverage: 2.1


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6530
EUR/USD 1.2880
GBP/USD 1.3880
USD/CHF 1.1900
USD/JPY 98.00
USD/NOK 6.8500
Gold 924
Oil 44.50
Dow Jones 7160


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,479.39 (-5.20%)
Account equity: 9,386.87 (-0.98%)

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_130309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_130309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_120309.png

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_160309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_160309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_150309.png

Good morning!

Review

Not so much to review. I took some profits here and there and closed my EUR/USD short yesterday (at the high of course) as I did not feel very comfortable with it. Switched to a long but closed that almost at break even just to enter a new short. Maybe I was just a bit nervous...

I had a small USD/CHF short running as well after the intervention of the SNB and the huge 300 pips move within one hour...

Bernankes said that the recession could end 2010. Wow, what is that guy smoking? A recession? Uh dear, I think it's more a depression than a recession...


Analysis

After some "good stock days" (Citigroup up 31% yesterday - WTF?!, what are those stock jockeys thinking?) I think it's time for some risk aversion again. That might lead to another Dollar strength even though it won't be that strong I guess. Most investors might start to see that the Dollar isn't the safe haven anymore and will have to depreciate.


Median Grid

No change.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: short
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

Buy the lows of the range and sell the highs.

AUD/USD

Currently long with a half position at 0.66266
Target: 0.6800

EUR/USD

Still short at 1.30005
Target: 1.29

USD/JPY

Entered two shorts (98.044 and 98.708) as we are near the top of my grid and I highly doubt to see prices above 100 that soon. I might have to rethink that but for now I stick to that.

Gold

One positions open.
Target: 990.

Open trades

25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
16-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units AUD/USD @0.66266
16-Mar-09 SELL 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.30005
16-Mar-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/JPY @98.044
17-Mar-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/JPY @98.708


Leverage: 1.9


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6590
EUR/USD 1.2970
GBP/USD 1.4030
USD/CHF 1.1890
USD/JPY 98.70
USD/NOK 6.8400
Gold 919
Oil 44.80
Dow Jones 7280


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,458.50 (-5.42%)
Account equity: 9,285.23 (-1.83%)

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_170309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_170309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_160309.png

Hi all,

looks like the currencies (against the Dollar) get some love. Great! Luckily I closed my short yesterday and switched to a long again. Took some profits right now and have sticked in a small short in the Euro and another small Gold long...

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_180309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_180309.png

Transactions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_170309.png

Good morning!

Review

Holy Sh..! Now that was a move yesterday in the currencies. 300 pips in the EUR/USD in just a minute. Wow, never saw that before. Unfortunately it was right against my short view. So I took a loss but have added a new short a bit higher as I think there need to be a correction. The stock markets rallied after the FED anounced that they will buy treasuries and add another 1.25 trillion to its sheet. Not really a surprise... This morning I tried to imagine how long it takes to print such an amount of paper (is it still money?)?...


Analysis

The US interest rate is just zero so they can't lower it anymore. The only option is to enable the printing press again. Now that's not a good thing for a currency for sure...

My bias is short Dollar now but I think we might see some correction especially for the Euro because the problems haven't gone here.


Median Grid

I adjust the EUR/USD grid to the upper side. Still have to see if this up move was just a spike or if it sustain.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.3000 - 1.3800; directional bias: up
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: short
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

Buy the lows of the range and sell the highs.

AUD/JPY

I decided to add a simple gridding for this currency. Spacing: 20 pips, TP: 25 pips with 1,000 units each. I think the outlook is great for the Aussie (and pretty bad for the Yen).

AUD/USD

Longs here and there, buying dips.

EUR/USD

Currently short at 1.3423, try to take about 100 pips. Want to switch to the long side after a dip.

USD/JPY

Entered a small long right above 96.

Gold

No change, added another long right above 900.


Open trades

25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
18-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units AUD/USD @0.67102
18-Mar-09 SELL 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.34232
18-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units USD/JPY @96.356
18-Mar-09 BUY 2 units XAU/USD @905.985

AUD/JPY-Grid
19-Mar-09 BUY 1,000 units AUD/JPY @64.600


Leverage: 1.7


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6750
EUR/USD 1.3450
GBP/USD 1.4220
USD/CHF 1.1430
USD/JPY 95.50
USD/NOK 6.5200
Gold 931
Oil 47.20
Dow Jones 7450


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,506.77 (-4.93%)
Account equity: 9,426.19 (-0.85%)

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_190309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_190309.png

Transactions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_180309.png

Review

Man... Tried to play some short games in the EUR/USD and got burned. It's just annoying (for me) that I try to fight such an up-trend. Lost some percent last week.


Analysis

Nevertheless MY view of the direction is clear: short USD. I'll buy dips here and there. The Euro might drop again but I can't imagine any prices below 1.25 for now and the next 1-2 years. The ECB has a mandate to provide price stability which isn't always good for the economy but good for the currency - that's for sure. The FED has... well... ... a printing press.


Median Grid

Again I slightly adjust the grid for EUR/USD to the upside, the same is valid for the AUD/USD.

AUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.7500; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.3300 - 1.4000; directional bias: long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

Buy the dips. As my directional view is clear I add two "grids" for the Aussie and the Fiber. That means: Stop Buy orders all the way up with a spacing of 20 pips and a tp of 25 pips and a size of 1,000 units each.


Open trades

25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
20-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units AUD/USD @0.69167
20-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.36799
20-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.35873

Automated grids:
20-Mar-09 BUY 1,000 units AUD/JPY @66.200
22-Mar-09 BUY 1,000 units EUR/USD @1.35800


Leverage: 1.8


Prices

AUD/JPY 65.80
AUD/USD 0.6870
EUR/USD 1.3580
GBP/USD 1.4420
USD/CHF 1.1280
USD/JPY 95.90
USD/NOK 6.3700
Gold 953


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,312.14 (-6.88%)
Account equity: 9,211.21 (-1.08%)