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Silent Service Method

  • #341
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:10pm Mar 9, 2009 11:10pm
CW, if you dont mind me asking, what was the last trade you placed in the forex market?

BWise
  • #342
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:18pm Mar 9, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting clockwork71
As someone who just quit smoking 15 months ago after 22 years.....I can tell you the odds are that it should hang in their. Quitting was a real bitch.
I quit about 30 years ago after 15 years of smoking.

I live in Asia now and can assure you there is no let up in smokers here . I "figger" that for those who do smoke, the current high stress environment is not an ideal time to quit.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #343
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:26pm Mar 9, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting clockwork71
This is because your "adviser" is actually a salesperson. Nothing more, nothing less.
Yes, I know that now. But I prefer to look at the silver lining in it. But for the crash and my loss of 50% of my IRA I'd have never taken it upon myself to learn about the markets and how to... not necessarily make money, something I plan on doing... but how to keep from being just another one of the suckers who lose money. I don't know how it is in other countries, but in the US a person receives zero education on how to handle investments. It is all left up to the individual to educate themselves in this stuff, and if they do not, like my former self, they lose their ass in the first recession that comes along. Seriously, had I know just the barest information on trading, like something as simple as an MA crossover, I'd have save myself a lot of money. Its like, hmmm, the DJI just crossed under its 200 day sma, perhaps I should go to cash.... But yeah, I figure even though I lost 50% of my account, the knowledge I have gained and continue to gain will be worth a thousand times that in the end. So the crash, for me, was a good thing???? Hmmm.....

CW, you are right of course, these people are nothing but salespeople. They get paid when your money is in the market, which creates a very big conflict of interest for them. I mean, if my livelihood depended on keeping folks' money in the market, and advising them to go to cash meant I could not afford the new Mercedes, I would like to think that my fiduciary duty and concern for my clients would win out and I would advise them to get out, regardless of what it does to my bottom line. When things get better these clients, and all of their friends and relatives, would come clamoring back to me because I was honest with them and did them right, and in the end I would probably be ten times better off with ten times the clients.
  • #344
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:27pm Mar 9, 2009 11:27pm
I have two charts attached to this post. The first attached chart is a candle stick 4hr chart of USD/CAD from IBFX and the second attached chart is a 4hr bar chart from the same feed provider.
In the first chart I have the numbers 1, 2, and 3 as reference points to describe how I interpreted price and what it was doing in my mind. I’m sure that my interpretation leaves much to be desired, but I felt like sharing my viewpoints on the subject.

1. As price approached the upper band of the long term resistance zone (red line) the amount of volume sharply increased as take profit orders were triggers as well as breakout style trade orders as traders started to expect a breakout of long term resistance. Afraid of not getting into the trade set in as the price quickly jumped past the upper band by about 30 pips. Price then started to retrace back to test this long term resistance to see if it would hold as support. When price barely even shrugged its shoulders at the old resistance line traders starts to bail out causing the breakout to quickly lose its short term staying power.

2. In the next 4 hour bar we saw price quickly shoot back down then retrace up to (almost to the pip) 61.8 Fib line of the drop from the stall of breakout to preceding fail.

3. In the last 4 hour bar labeled we see a very weak attempt to try and gain some upward momentum fail followed by a very unsure and indecisive candle.


As a fairly aggressive trader in this constant I took a put in a limit order at 38.2 when I saw price respecting the Fib 61.8 in number 2. Now… as far as the silent service method is concerned the Upper Red bound and the Lower Blue bound are what I currently have as my long turn trading zone on Usd/Cad. Now that I am in the trade I am watching to see how price reacts at the blue line as well as that Green line I have a little ways under. I hope I didn’t distract from the pure Silent Service method with this post, just wondering if I’m on the right track, I guess.
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  • #345
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:47pm Mar 9, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting BWise
CW, if you dont mind me asking, what was the last trade you placed in the forex market?

BWise
Long USD/SGD on the 4 hour chart. GMT time.....tell me if you can figure out why.....

Also, I had a set T/P.........let me know why that is as well if you figure it out. (Yes, it made money on it.) It did my favorite thing.....hit T/P while I was away. Didn't have to do anything to make it.
  • #346
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:50pm Mar 9, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
Yes, I know that now....
I agree....but to have that kind of ethics, and to think long term isn't the way of most Americans these days. It's all Me, Now, More.....sad really.
  • #347
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:53pm Mar 9, 2009 11:53pm
Quoting Verto
I have two charts attached to this post. The first attached chart is a candle stick 4hr chart of USD/CAD from IBFX and the second attached chart is a 4hr bar chart from the same feed provider.
In the first chart I have the numbers 1, 2, and 3 as reference points to describe how I interpreted price and what it was doing in my mind. I’m sure that my interpretation leaves much to be desired, but I felt like sharing my viewpoints on the subject.

1. As price approached the upper band of the long term resistance zone (red line) the amount of volume...
This is one of those trades I could have got into myself....but I am looking more big picture here. I want it to prove itself one way or the other. I am looking for trend direction here.

The beauty of this trade is this: If you are correct.....you are going to be correct for a lot of pips. (If you let it go that far.)

CW
  • #348
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:28am Mar 10, 2009 12:28am
Quoting clockwork71
Long USD/SGD on the 4 hour chart. GMT time.....tell me if you can figure out why.....

Also, I had a set T/P.........let me know why that is as well if you figure it out. (Yes, it made money on it.) It did my favorite thing.....hit T/P while I was away. Didn't have to do anything to make it.
According to your trading method, the last justifiable trade that should of been taken was the the breakout of the 1.5100 - 1.5300 resistance level. According to my feed, on the 4HR, price broke the 1.5300 resistance level and then acted as support, before continue upwards to the 1.5575 area where it has been met with resistance.
  • #349
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:49am Mar 10, 2009 12:49am
Verto, nice work. I followed this exact trade today. The initial TP I had was set at 1.2900 ( minor support ), it has already hit it. Its good to see that someone else was looking at the same pattern I was though.

Quoting Verto
I have two charts attached to this post. The first attached chart is a candle stick 4hr chart of USD/CAD from IBFX and the second attached chart is a 4hr bar chart from the same feed provider.
In the first chart I have the numbers 1, 2, and 3 as reference points to describe how I interpreted price and what it was doing in my mind. I’m sure that my interpretation leaves much to be desired, but I felt like sharing my viewpoints on the subject.

1. As price approached the upper band of the long term resistance zone (red line) the amount of volume...
  • #350
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:56am Mar 10, 2009 1:56am
Quoting clockwork71
Long USD/SGD on the 4 hour chart. GMT time.....tell me if you can figure out why.....

Also, I had a set T/P.........let me know why that is as well if you figure it out. (Yes, it made money on it.) It did my favorite thing.....hit T/P while I was away. Didn't have to do anything to make it.
Here is the chart. According to the flip zone as I see it, the most recent PA I see is the dblhc/buob in the blue box. Was this a good long signal? I mean, obviously it was, but would it have been good when it occurred. The only thing is that CW says he prefers a retrace and bounce off new support before taking the trade so my guess here is probably incorrect.
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  • #351
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:31am Mar 10, 2009 6:31am
Can't believe I missed this thread, a classic on the making.
Subscribed, thank you Clockwork
  • #352
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:18am Mar 10, 2009 7:18am
Quoting clockwork71
Long USD/SGD on the 4 hour chart. GMT time.....tell me if you can figure out why.....

ooo!! We like this game! What a great teaching tool Clockwork. If you were to say post the pairs and the directions of any trades you have taken at the end of a week, then we can all go to our charts and see why. Perhaps then we can pose hypothetical exit positions and give our reasoning behind them. What do you think?

The area for the exit on this trade was quite obvious IMO, with the previous highs the obvious target to aim for. The next level, 1.5400 has great confluence with the 38.2 fib from the big weekly move down. It'll be interesting to see if we can get confirmation of this area acting as resistance.

I won't post a chart just yet, let others play the game as well
  • #353
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:02am Mar 10, 2009 8:02am
so many nice things (for bears) happening lately on usdcad as i keep special attention on this pair.
1.possible pin bar on weekly chart
2.Gigantic divergence on weekly chart (actually almost every single time frame of this pair)
3.resistance at strong and also rounded number of level 1.3000
4.now i'm only looking for a beautiful price action on a retracement of 4hr chart..
maybe asking too much but once i got everything i need to see than i'm in love with any pair..

good luck all...
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  • #354
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:35am Mar 10, 2009 9:35am
A few charts on the Singapore Dollar trade I took. I should point out that we are at the 38% retrace on the weekly chart.....multi-year trend. (someone else pointed this out.)
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  • #355
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:57am Mar 10, 2009 9:57am
Lovely box action
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  • #356
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:20am Mar 10, 2009 10:20am
Quoting clockwork71
A few charts on the Singapore Dollar trade I took. I should point out that we are at the 38% retrace on the weekly chart.....multi-year trend. (someone else pointed this out.)
Hey Chris,

If we break through the blue box you enter blindly or wait for price action?

I've been guessing throughout if you really do take the blind entries and if so how often...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #357
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:28am Mar 10, 2009 10:28am
Quoting Chris P
Lovely box action
Wow! That pair has been insane. Too bad my broker doesnt provide USDNOK.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #358
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:05am Mar 10, 2009 11:05am
Hi all,

Found this thread a few days ago and have been trying to catch up, post by post. I'm not all the way through so forgive me if it's been answered, but:

Let say were just about at a resistance level (up bound). I gather we should put in a buy stop near the top end of the resistance zone, hoping for an up bound breakout (all assuming we're trending upward in general)?

Are we only trading on breakouts? What about if this pair were to bounce instead? Should we totally stay out of those trades?

Current example - USDCAD is trending upward long term. It has tested the 1.30 resistance area 4 times in the past several months. I have a buy stop above it currently. Should this be the only trade/conditional trade I have on this chart at this time? OR should, I also have one a little below it in for the quite possible chance it will bounce off again as it has been?

(There's also the semblance of an ascending triangle on the daily, which additionally leads me to believe that there's an up bound breakout coming, but that is apart from my question in relation to this system).

Thoughts?
  • #359
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:24am Mar 10, 2009 11:24am
Quoting alyehoud
Hi all,

Found this thread a few days ago and have been trying to catch up, post by post....
I think what the more experienced traders would tell you is that everyone is different and it depends on your trading style. An aggressive approach would be the one you suggest, setting a buy order above the bar highs at the 1.3 level and praying that once it gets hit it does not reverse on you. A more conservative approach, and one I think most folks prefer, is to let price rise above 1.3, then retrace to that level at which point you would wait for PA to tell you if 1.3 will now serve as support. Price almost always retraces when it goes through a solid resistance level like 1.3 on the UCAD.

I learned a lesson overnight. I went to bed with shorts on g/j and ucad, and set a T/S of about 65 pips on each because I get paranoid. This was a big mistake because both were stopped out and then went back down, especially the ucad. I need to just let them go and trust my analysis, maybe set stop to b/e, but no lower. A few pages ago CW posted some charts showing his stop strategy, and I completely ignored it, to my detriment. Not any more.
  • #360
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:55am Mar 10, 2009 11:55am
Quoting clockwork71
A few charts on the Singapore Dollar trade I took. I should point out that we are at the 38% retrace on the weekly chart.....multi-year trend. (someone else pointed this out.)
Chris,
How do you determine that USDSGD is in an overall downtrend?
When I look at the weekly, it has been making HH's and HL's since August 08.
What time period do you use to determine the overall trend?
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