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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #601
  • Feb 1, 2009 11:15am Feb 1, 2009 11:15am
The fact that there are 600+ replys to this thread shows that you have hit a nerve with alot of the posters.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #602
  • Feb 1, 2009 11:26am Feb 1, 2009 11:26am
Quoting tdion
So no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....

you are nothing without your better half: the market.

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.


Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.
All pros agree on this.
ask whoever, and he will say he has been lucky.

others stress on the idea not to confuse luck with brain.

when u confuse them together , you drop ur shields, and then start taking miscalculated risks , and sooner u learn ur lesson on humility!
Enter Signature
  • #603
  • Feb 2, 2009 11:26pm Feb 2, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting thatwasme
In the Book A Non - Random Walk Down Wall Street, (Copyright 1999) the authors Andrew W Lo and Craig MaCKinlay, completely disprove the Random Walk Hypothesis.

Andrew Lo is a Harris & Harris Group Professor of Finance at the Sloan School Of Management...
good point
  • #604
  • Edited 10:30am Feb 7, 2009 10:10am | Edited 10:30am
yes , I will admit profits are based on luck...however, if luck is the application of hard analysis and twist and turns of the market to consistently make a return...I will take it. There are some traders that are so more far advanced than others that you can't just say its luck. Price, time, f & g, knowing the right market, style and market speed are equally important in tradeing and most will never master - including myself more than likely. Most folks on these forums are road kill because all of the above are equally important to be trained and spend significant amounts of time on to be good and disiplined. Also, very few are masters and the ones that are spent a lot of time and would rather chew their arm off than give out an edge.
  • #605
  • Feb 8, 2009 12:03pm Feb 8, 2009 12:03pm
  •  zykas
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: ... measure thrice, but cut once | 196 Posts
"It took a lot of practice and hard work before I start being lucky"...Dimax Vogt
I like the Big Dogs because I trade like them
  • #606
  • Feb 8, 2009 12:04pm Feb 8, 2009 12:04pm
ehheehehhehehe..........
  • #607
  • Feb 27, 2009 12:50am Feb 27, 2009 12:50am
classic thread that gets no airplay these days
  • #608
  • Feb 27, 2009 1:13am Feb 27, 2009 1:13am
Quoting tdion
classic thread that gets no airplay these days
I have to wonder, how a guy who says he did over 3,000% increase on a demo account last year, is still looking around at threads like this. Were you just extremely lucky with your demo pipping last year?
  • #609
  • Feb 27, 2009 1:25am Feb 27, 2009 1:25am
This just happens to be a favorite thread - the arguing back and forth is very good quality.

Hmmmm - I guess I'll always say trading is luck unless I know why I win or lose each time ---- a 3000% year could have easily been a negative 90% year without the market's help.

Yep, I am sold that you are 1/2 of your own success, and the other is out of your control.
  • #610
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:42pm Mar 9, 2009 4:42pm
luck ...... read this

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...StockGuru.aspx


A waitress who never picked stock in her life beat all the analysts and ivy league wall street pros

what does this tell you!!

The random walk maybe right
  • #611
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:58pm Mar 9, 2009 4:58pm
Quote
A waitress who never picked stock in her life beat all the analysts and ivy league wall street pros

LOL. Most "professional" analysts are very good at their job. The only problem is that their job isn't to provide you with good stock tips; It's to provide support for their company's position.

Company X's analyst tells you "strong buy on xxx" perhaps that's because they have a position they're trying to sell off. That market isn't ran so much by "random walk theory" as much as it is a "greater fool theory."
  • #612
  • Last Post: Aug 24, 2010 7:20am Aug 24, 2010 7:20am
Quoting tdion
So no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....

you are nothing without your better half: the market.

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.


Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.
Well, I do thank probabilities for my profits but I guess that's just another name for luck.
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