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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,181
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:29pm Mar 29, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting pipped oFF
Oh yes, I did see that post but skimmed it a bit too fast. The "money flow" is an amazing thing. How soon and fast the carry will unwind again i'm not sure. All the news is making me uneasy. Thanks again for your analysis and keep up the good work.
And we are having a potentially USD and GBP and EUR negative environment in Iran. No way money will flow here...

GU is trading within never seen 30 pips range today. Money gotta flow. It's not gonna happen there.

We, as to fullfill our pretentions, must be where the money is flowiing. For us, it doesn't matter what is the actual pair's current price, but what is going to be the price a few time from now. And the faster it moves, the better.

GJ made 300 pips from bottom y'day to today's top.
  • #2,182
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:45pm Mar 29, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting cesarnc
And we are having a potentially USD and GBP and EUR negative environment in Iran. No way money will flow here...

GU is trading within never seen 30 pips range today. Money gotta flow. It's not gonna happen there.

We, as to fullfill our pretentions, must be where the money is flowiing. For us, it doesn't matter what is the actual pair's current price, but what is going to be the price a few time from now. And the faster it moves, the better.

GJ made 300 pips from bottom y'day to today's top.
Yes that was a really nice movement today. Anyone who could gain some pips from it then grats
  • #2,183
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:40pm Mar 29, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting fxtrader06
I have a banker friend at bank of america she says their going long at to day pivot wich is 229.77 tp at 231.44
Wow... That one was at the pip...

Made it above it and now rests right at it... good call
  • #2,184
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:38pm Mar 29, 2007 4:38pm
today we have some news on jpy .is there any forecast? short or long

good luck
  • #2,185
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:20pm Mar 29, 2007 6:20pm
Quoting younes55
today we have some news on jpy .is there any forecast? short or long

good luck
I'm looking for spike down, speculation driven, bounce and back to carry trades - JPY overall positive.

Straight shoot to 118.50- in the minimum by speculators + carry trades = JPY overall negative.
  • #2,186
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:44pm Mar 29, 2007 6:44pm
well THAT was exciting.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #2,187
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:48pm Mar 29, 2007 6:48pm
DailyFx is predicting the following:

GBPJPY – The GBPJPY turned down from the 233.00 figure but rebounded late yesterday and today. A continuation of this rally to above 233.05 with focus on 233.70 (61.8% of 241.52-221.10) would complete a 5 wave move from the 221.10 low. The rally from 221.10 has taken on the form of a diagonal triangle (wedge). Looking at the longer term chart, we still favor another leg down to complete at least a 3 wave correction from 241.54. That said, GBPJPY could extend to the 78.6% of 241.52-221.10 at 237.12 before the next leg down begins.


with the new worse than expected from JPY this looks very likely. 237.12 here we come.
  • #2,188
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:03pm Mar 29, 2007 8:03pm
Quoting yezbick
DailyFx is predicting the following:

GBPJPY – The GBPJPY turned down from the 233.00 figure but rebounded late yesterday and today. A continuation of this rally to above 233.05 with focus on 233.70 (61.8% of 241.52-221.10) would complete a 5 wave move from the 221.10 low. The rally from 221.10 has taken on the form of a diagonal triangle (wedge). Looking at the longer term chart, we still favor another leg down to complete at least a 3 wave correction from 241.54. That said, GBPJPY could extend to the 78.6% of 241.52-221.10 at 237.12 before the next leg down begins.


with the new worse than expected from JPY this looks very likely. 237.12 here we come.
good stuff......got a chart??
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #2,189
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:11pm Mar 29, 2007 8:11pm
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...9-07cross1.gif
  • #2,190
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:24pm Mar 29, 2007 8:24pm
hmm it looks like it goes down since 9pm .... and i still have long
  • #2,191
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:31pm Mar 29, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting Vitaliy
hmm it looks like it goes down since 9pm .... and i still have long
does appear to be going down. My stop and reverse kicked in and now I'm going south.

hopefully it will keep going the same direction not up and down 100 pips like it has 3 days this week already.
  • #2,192
  • Edited 9:37pm Mar 29, 2007 9:00pm | Edited 9:37pm
mmmm my indicators r still showing long ... I'm using 4H charts so maybe its just a jump down that will lead to the big jump north who knows assuming previous post i may say that i should go up

not good ... not good at all its getting close to my s\l 230.80 ....

welcome to the freaky friday ... look at the drop, and my s\l was hit leaving me with 17+, next time i will close my orders at 00.00
  • #2,193
  • Mar 30, 2007 12:08am Mar 30, 2007 12:08am
the indicators shows long but there are a big white candle in daily heheheh
Sorry about my english...
  • #2,194
  • Mar 30, 2007 12:27am Mar 30, 2007 12:27am
Quoting CIORIMAU--
the indicators shows long but there are a big white candle in daily heheheh
what do you mean by big white candle, ciorimau?
  • #2,195
  • Mar 30, 2007 10:40am Mar 30, 2007 10:40am
Hi guys,
Im new to this forum. Currently trading GBP JPY, with not much success, actually many losses this week. That is why I would really like to know how did u handle this shitty day...maybe I can learn something new.

Thanx
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #2,196
  • Mar 30, 2007 2:28pm Mar 30, 2007 2:28pm
hmmm actually this pair moves pretty steady, and this week was good for me of course not grate because too early exits .... specially at the begining of the friday, but comparing to the last week when I lost 30 % of my balance in one day and it was sunday when the market just got open and I was eager to get as much pips as i could, after that I hummered in my head not to trade ever ever and ever again on sundays and fridays because all my unsuccessful orders are exatly on those days and market acts just too weird to analyze it.
  • #2,197
  • Mar 30, 2007 5:16pm Mar 30, 2007 5:16pm
Sorry to hear you had a bad day trading....
Fridays and Sunday's are not good days to trade this pair. Some Sundays you get lucky but for the most part would recommend staying out on those days if you are a intraday trader .....
Hope that helps



Quoting gagiul
Hi guys,
Im new to this forum. Currently trading GBP JPY, with not much success, actually many losses this week. That is why I would really like to know how did u handle this shitty day...maybe I can learn something new.

Thanx
  • #2,198
  • Mar 30, 2007 6:08pm Mar 30, 2007 6:08pm
but it wasn't quite a crappy day for me on g-j. yes, today's range was below average but i was able to get 100 pips from the initial down move - which was enough for the day. but i took a serious hit from g-u... because of the sudden fall of the "mighty" dollar (for whatever reason).

Quoting gagiul
Hi guys,
Im new to this forum. Currently trading GBP JPY, with not much success, actually many losses this week. That is why I would really like to know how did u handle this shitty day...maybe I can learn something new.

Thanx
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #2,199
  • Mar 30, 2007 9:16pm Mar 30, 2007 9:16pm
i'm using 4H charts they look the best for me because I don't have time to look after it too often, the main problem for me is to dermine when to exit I'm using brain trading indicators for this pair they look gorgeous on this pair on 4H charts, but this week I was to nervous after my loss last sunday, so i didn't really follow the rules of stop loss , and put it too closely, so i didn't get a lot of profit out of this week, even small loss on gbpchf, I found that gbpchf and gbpjpy move pretty much in the same direction and when the trend changes it changes on both charts, thats looks pretty interesting because taking into consideration both charts at the same time it can be seen if it short term move down or a trend change.

P.S. if anybody has pretty good exit rules please share because thats my major problem, specially if this pair gets in the tunel after first move up so all indicators show long i make order and it gets stuck in the tunel, and the worst case if it goes like 50 pips above my order price and then changes trend and goes down.

P.P.S. my indicators are still long or most of them at least .... so it may go up on monday ... any ideas ?
  • #2,200
  • Mar 30, 2007 11:27pm Mar 30, 2007 11:27pm
yes, there might be some room up.
as for the exits, since you're trading gbp-jpy and gbp-chf, i can make a few suggestions:
- read candlesticks and use this with rsi (for g-j rsi5 works pretty good); for example, exit long when rsi looks overbought...
- parabolic SAR and / or 20ema (these are support/resistance lines)
or you can use a combination of all of the above; i'm pretty happy with this system, but i use it to trade smaller timeframes (M15-M30, rarely H1).
i wouldn't use TP because these pairs tend to trend quite a lot; all you need is to be careful with SL.

Quoting Vitaliy
i'm using 4H charts they look the best for me because I don't have time to look after it too often, the main problem for me is to dermine when to exit I'm using brain trading indicators for this pair they look gorgeous on this pair on 4H charts, but this week I was to nervous after my loss last sunday, so i didn't really follow the rules of stop loss , and put it too closely, so i didn't get a lot of profit out of this week, even small loss on gbpchf, I found that gbpchf and gbpjpy move pretty much in the same direction and when the trend changes it changes on both charts, thats looks pretty interesting because taking into consideration both charts at the same time it can be seen if it short term move down or a trend change.

P.S. if anybody has pretty good exit rules please share because thats my major problem, specially if this pair gets in the tunel after first move up so all indicators show long i make order and it gets stuck in the tunel, and the worst case if it goes like 50 pips above my order price and then changes trend and goes down.

P.P.S. my indicators are still long or most of them at least .... so it may go up on monday ... any ideas ?
Nihil Sine Deo.
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