Win or lose 100 pips. Place your bets.

I got this crazy idea I think might work.

1) Enter the trade at the open

2a) If you think price is going up set your TP to open + 100 pips and SL to open - 100 pips

2b) If you think price is going down set your TP to open - 100 pips and SL to open + 100 pips

According to the range indicator and by looking at the chart, it looks like there are 100 pips to make.

All it needs is a way to decide which way to trade at the open - long or short. I was thinking trade in the direction of the closest n.nn00 price because those prices seem to act like a magnet.

Any ideas?

1st pic: At Open (Friday 03/06): No obvious trend. Why bet 50/50?
2nd pic: At Close after NFP around 14:30. A EMA(45) with parallels every 50 up and down gives a better than 50/50. Good trade around 15:30.
ps: I obviously do not know how to get good pics uploaded here - anyone can tell me how? Thanks, Ken.

Hi Ken

Not sure how to use your EMA(45) method. Where do I read about it? How would I use it with my idea? The pips are there for the taking, I just know it.

For pics, click on the manage attachments button. Then browse to find your chart file, and click upload. Then click close this window. Then click on the Attachments button up at the top. Then click on the chart file you just uploaded.

The EMAs are standard Moving Average in the Indicators folder. Exponential (I prefer), on Close, the parallell lines are done with Levels +50, +100, -50 etc. I don't know if there is a place to read up on them, I just started experimenting with them and kind of found out how they work after studying the Alligator and Hurst offset MAs. I like EMA(45) on a 15-minute chart, multiply x 3 for a 5-minute chart (135), 675 for a 1-min etc. I use Ninja Trader and use 1350 on a 30-second chart. If you think that is just crazy then put them on some charts and check it out. Just a little something esoteric, thanks to Gann, 45 x 45 = 2025, which I would use on a 20 second chart.
ps: On the lower time frame charts I use +/- 20 levels. Different symbols may (probably will) respond to different numbers.

Hi Ken

Nice to hear from you again. I'll see you're looking at M15. I am looking at D1. I just see the money on D1. See the movement from the opens. That is want I want to capture. Maybe I'll study your EMA some more.

Hi Todd, The "Open" is basically 5:00 pm EST, everybody is tired and thru for the day. What happens next is a little rest, then Aussie and Tokyo open, and on some pairs there is action, but I doubt there is much on the G/U until London opens. And then it opens with a flat congestion period. On the lower time frames you can get good trades there if you can be awake (I can't), but otherwise I think you must wait for a trend to develop.
ps: Look at NanningBob's threads.

Hey Ken

I studied the EMA(45) and may have found something. When the open price of any session is near the EMA(45) and swing seems to occur. Thanks for showing this to me.

Todd,

First you have to define, "if you think it's going up or down". In other words, you need a consistent method for determining this. Once you have it, then a strategy like this is easily backtested.

hi guys, I actually started a win or loss 100pips & position size=account size (no leverage) stategy run 1 month ago since Feb.10.

it isn't mature and I'm still testing it.

I described what I do in trading systems link here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=156748

however it depends heavily on fundamental research, i.e. not feasiable for auto trading...

hope it adds my 2 cents.

Todd, would you rather have 1 100-pip trade, or 20 5-pip trades? Which do you think the market is more willing to give you?

hi kenz:

I ran 2 funds on 2 strategy, one is this + - 100pips, other is day scalping.

both were a little profit till now

I do find that I have tendency to trade more on 2nd one...

there are a little more market oppotunities for +- 10 pips

however thing is, 2nd strategy always puts my nerves tight,
I always worry that some trick by my market-maker can knock me off, either a glitch, a slippage, or even a platform disconnection,

(yes I was hit by a platform disconnection in middle of the week and I basically stopped placing orders following 2 days... scared.

a few pips loss will turn to 10x because I am running position size=10x acc size for scalping.

for 1st one since the chances are less, so you concentrate much more and it's not so hard to find a + - 100pips event if you focus all efforts on fundamentals and keep away from the market.

and since I'm using position size=acc size, and + - 1% profit/loss, my market maker is always nice to me,
knowing that none of their tricks on live trading could impact me... I basically have a tolerance of 10000 pips before my account will be blow up.
while in scalping case I cannot accept 300 pips loss, which x10 is a 30% loss of account. and 300pips movement is not rare in a market.

I do think 1st way has a merit given that I do not believe I can constantly make 1 pip profit every day by scalping daily at my skill & exp. right now... but my broker has that 1pip guaranteed...

2nd system has some built-in weakness, that is broker makes quite a lot of pips if your goal is only 3 or 5 pips per day on average,
if you do 3 trade per day on average and harvest 3 pips per day (counting profit/loss, good/bad days), while the broker is also getting 3 pips per day because of 3 trades.
but your work is time consuming & nerves shaking and brokers 3pip is for-sured... that's a 1:1 profit/risk ratio.

I am not saying that small pips is not impossible, I am still putting more effort into that but I'm not sure about the return/risk ratio.

Hi Dopey

A consistent method would make this work very well indeed. Do you have a suggestion?

Hi Billye

Nice of you to post that link. I am not looking to auto trade.

Check out Larry William's work on daily opens and closes. Most of his stuff is floating around the net.

Hi Ken

That's a loaded question. I would rather have 1 100-pip trade. The market only gives opportunities. Every day there is an opportunity to make a 100 pip trade.

Ha, yes a loaded question. ;=) Of course there is no correct answer. The answer shows your preferred style of trading. Everyone would like to make one huge trade and then go play the rest of the day. There might be an opportunity for a 100 pip move, but you either have to be awake and alert to grab it or have software that will alert you. There are dozens and dozens of opportunities for 5-pip trades. I don't like sitting thru retraces so I prefer the 5s.

I saw a FF thread called The Only Pivot about using the daily pivot and a 2 period smoothed moving average to enter the trade. The author said he had five 200 pips days in a row. Maybe that can help you.

go short bro the USD is gonna rally tonight.

this one is also kind of bet, bet on market correction.

we're working on the history statistics, seems it can yield >2/3 chance of bet right.

risk of that is betting on market connection is clearly going against the trend in the past few hours... need a good stop/loss and discipline to protect.

otherwise with a leverage and no s/l it could blow up quickly.

not sure if my understanding is right.

we'll jump on some testing of this strategy once statistics finish positive.

Have any of you considered time zones and differences in daily charts?

What chart is your broker feeding you?

All your calculations and careful use of lagging indicators could be even more out of whack.