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Don't get sucked in by dollar strength

  • #121
  • Edited 10:37pm Mar 8, 2009 8:42pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting mrgreen
"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent." ~Edwin Lefevre

I do not see the turn as of yet but I wish you luck.
Cheers,

I agree with the above quote you put in. Hence I took half mini on each position.

this could take a while so i am happy to sit on that for now.
  • #122
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:22pm Mar 8, 2009 9:22pm
The collapse of the dollar will follow the collapse of the treasury market, as the Federal Reserve will have to monetize the debt that nobody wants to buy.
  • #123
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:36pm Mar 8, 2009 11:36pm
Quoting mrgreen
To many are discounting the USD. I honestly do not see the euro stopping this side of 100, possibly lower....

Well said, mrgreen. We all know that eventually the US dollar is doomed, but it is not today . . . and probably not this month or next. The euro will fall much before the dollar does. The Eurozone has too many little guys pulling the larger countries down. Just watch . . . Germany will be the first to denounce their Eurozone-membership.
  • #124
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:38pm Mar 8, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I am positioning for the dollar to begin weakening again. Sure it is not what you are reading on the right side of the board here with all the stories but that is exactly the point. Ask yourself a simple question, "Why am I buying the dollar?" It has been a story of..."Well armageddon and the dollar is the best of the worst"

I think the dollar play is wearing very thin personally. Look at a long term chart and you will see a secular downtrend in the dollar, no one can argue this. We are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. Consider...

I don't understand your logic. Everybody was on the EUR bandwagon for 7 years. Why should the USD bandwagon end just because everybody is on it?
  • #125
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:42am Mar 20, 2009 4:42am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
to continue on from the weekly chart i posted.........

below is the daily eur/usd chart.

The following are Mclaren principles of pattern of trend. I am a student of MclLarens pattern of trend principals. ( still studying!)

I want to concentrate on the current move down from (dec 23 to now) from the 50% high point of the fist move down.

this is a continuation of the down trend that started out as normal trend with 2-4 bar retraces. the trend then changes to a creeping trend with the retracment high going into the last support low above. this...
Quote
This moring I have started to take longs on the EUR/USd and the AUD/USD.

I have started my tarde with a 5000 with 300 pip stops on each. As the pattern devalops I will be adding more.


As seen boys and girls the pattern completed and I added a couple more lots to my trade.

i took all profits off the table last night.

I am now looking to short into the market with 1st target at 1.3601. if this is hit will look at it further. still waiting on the signal.

I see this as a small retrace with more upside to come on the euro and for the aud to the usd.

good trading
  • #126
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:10pm Mar 20, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
As seen boys and girls the pattern completed and I added a couple more lots to my trade.

i took all profits off the table last night.

I am now looking to short into the market with 1st target at 1.3601. if this is hit will look at it further. still waiting on the signal.

I see this as a small retrace with more upside to come on the euro and for the aud to the usd.

good trading

Technical pattern? No way! The 300 billion news was fundamental and couldn't have been forseen.
  • #127
  • Edited 2:45pm Mar 20, 2009 2:03pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting fxterrapin
The 300 billion news...couldn't have been forseen.

Are you serious?

Well... it couldn't have been foreseen on Day A or B or C...

...but the overall idea of a "new bailout" after the ones already made, are something that many people already predicted for a long time.

You see, Fundamentals aren't only about numbers, are also about gauging the pressure on governments to bail people out.


Couldn't have been foreseen?

What are you talking about?
  • #128
  • Mar 20, 2009 3:29pm Mar 20, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting Speculator
Are you serious?

Well... it couldn't have been foreseen on Day A or B or C...

...but the overall idea of a "new bailout" after the ones already made, are something that many people already predicted for a long time.

You see, Fundamentals aren't only about numbers, are also about gauging the pressure on governments to bail people out.


Couldn't have been foreseen?

What are you talking about?
Think about what you just said: "something many predicted for a long time."
In that case it would have been priced in right away (but it wasn't). Logic is a wonderful thing, isn't it.

What I said was that a technical pattern (patterns of supply and demand) could not have foreseen the timing of the 300 billion treasury buying spree.
For traders, there is BIG difference between day A, B, or C.
  • #129
  • Mar 20, 2009 4:38pm Mar 20, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting fxterrapin
In that case it would have been priced in right away (but it wasn't).
huh? common..

If some good economists predict the problems ahead of time, and also predict that the governments will make the easy thing and keep bailing out everyone, but the market don't reflect that yet. What does that mean?

Does that mean that the market is the ultimate predicting mecanism, and absolutly no one can predict macroeconomic developments ahead of the market? Are you kidding me?

How come the stock market was not predicting anything but great prosperity in the beggining of 2007 and then we are in a great crisis.

Market the great predictor? Don't make me laugh.

Remember, maybe you don't know this, but the market is composed by people and there are persons that are a lot smarter than others, but they can't move the market in the day they make the prediction. They just know that eventually the crowd will change direction.

Please don't try to come again with "this is worthless for trading"...

I'm not talking about trading!

You said its impossible to predict bailouts on the horizont.

I said.. not only is possible, but it already happened. Period.
Don't blame the others if you have a poor understanding of whats happening.


Quoting fxterrapin
For traders, there is BIG difference between day A, B, or C.
You keep talking about traders over and over again.

Trading has nothing to do with real life. In real life you make decisions that will help you to have a better life, DESPITE, that decisions don't play out right away.

You make decisions, like brushing your teeth, or applying sun bloker, DESPITE the fact that you don't have cancer yet and your teeth are not falling yet.

So... lets sum it up for you.

If people would live life, the way we trade (only acting after a signal), we would all be dead.

Unfortunatelly i don't have the time to waste showing you tons of videos, from smart people predicting that we would see more and more bailouts, after the first Bush Bailout.

Thats a fact! And you can't say nothing that can negate that.
  • #130
  • Mar 20, 2009 6:14pm Mar 20, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting fxterrapin
Technical pattern? No way! The 300 billion news was fundamental and couldn't have been forseen.
Ha ha ha ha ha.......

go back one page and read my posts....

P.S the move started well before the FED announcement!
  • #131
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:28pm Mar 20, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting Speculator
Trading has nothing to do with real life.
Is this not Forex Factory? Did I click on the wrong link earlier?

Because it does have to do with my life.

It is what I do for a living. Predicting I leave to the crystal ball gazers.

I rather be wrong but make money than the other way around.
  • #132
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:49pm Mar 20, 2009 10:49pm
Quoting Speculator
huh? common..

If some good economists predict the problems ahead of time, and also predict that the governments will make the easy thing and keep bailing out everyone, but the market don't reflect that yet. What does that mean?

Does that mean that the market is the ultimate predicting mecanism, and absolutly no one can predict macroeconomic developments ahead of the market? Are you kidding me?

How come the stock market was not predicting anything but great prosperity in the beggining of 2007 and then we are in a great...

Wow, somebody must have had a bad day. You can interestingly gauge a FF member's profitablilty by his/her posts' aggressiveness. The more aggressive the more obvious it becomes that he/she is a paper trader. Jacko really nailed this. They never last.
  • #133
  • Mar 20, 2009 10:55pm Mar 20, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting SunTrader
Is this not Forex Factory? Did I click on the wrong link earlier?

Because it does have to do with my life.

It is what I do for a living. Predicting I leave to the crystal ball gazers.

I rather be wrong but make money than the other way around.

You have to dig Speculator's logic, it's better than SNL!
It's so sad and obvious that he disagrees just to have an argument.

Wonder how long he will last... wagers anyone?
  • #134
  • Mar 21, 2009 2:57am Mar 21, 2009 2:57am
Quoting fxterrapin
The 300 billion news was fundamental and couldn't have been forseen.
Unless you consider Bernanke's direct statement of "yes we're printing" on 60 Minutes as a hat tip for the FOMC statement.
  • #135
  • Mar 21, 2009 4:16am Mar 21, 2009 4:16am
Quoting fxterrapin
Think about what you just said: "something many predicted for a long time."
In that case it would have been priced in right away (but it wasn't). Logic is a wonderful thing, isn't it.

What I said was that a technical pattern (patterns of supply and demand) could not have foreseen the timing of the 300 billion treasury buying spree.
For traders, there is BIG difference between day A, B, or C.
i agree with you in a sense, that fundamental knowledge is not practicable for daily, weekly positions
generally there is too much noise in between, it can take months for a fundamental change to confirm

speculator is thinking in decades, its a broader view, one can long term trade, why not

but no pattern? no market prediction?
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Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #136
  • Mar 21, 2009 8:57am Mar 21, 2009 8:57am
We see the dollar increasing against the yen but falling to the pound and the Euro over the past week and a half. I'm personally upset with the Dollar falling to the Euro because it makes my May Monte Carlo trip more expensive.

But good news in the European markets and has produced increases in the Euro and sent the Pound soaring. I don't really rely on fundamentals because all you need to know in any market is supply and demand (i.e. support and resistance) and order flow if you do stocks. Trade what you see not feel and you can make a lot of money. I remember when I was in law school and the Dean of the school who was also a law professor would say "Don't think Great thoughts..........read the statute." I see trading as very similar.....instead of trying to predict markets.......do what the market is doing.

Who cares why the markets move.....it's only important to be on the right side.....and if you are on the wrong side......close out and switch to right side.

But important fundamentals need to be fixed in the economy for the Dollar to have a sustained upside against these other currencies. But anyone who shorted the pound ever since like around November to up until a couple of weeks ago made a lot of money.
  • #137
  • Edited 11:59am Mar 21, 2009 11:45am | Edited 11:59am
First of all i have to say that i hope that Twee don't block me on this one, since its not offensive in anyway. Its just a big post full of interesting points, that are a good awnser to a couple of guys that didn't said anything but claim that i'm doomed.

Throughout the post, there might be what looks to be short "pauses" in the quality content, but i think there aren't anything bad about it.

I have a lot of respect for Twee and his work, but i hope he reads this carefully because all of it has everything to do with learning and being better, even the direct awnsers.

So here we go!




Quoting silverheat
Speculator is thinking in decades, its a broader view, one can long term trade, why not
No, not decades. In fact look at this next quote from Trader KBG, its a nice one.

It says it all... Bernanke really said in that interview that the reason they had a great depression, was because they didn't have a lot money, and he is determined in printing as much as possible.

He is known for Helicopter Ben for 1 year or more and this fxterrapin says its impossible to predict a bailout from this guy.. wow..

Quoting Trader KGB
Unless you consider Bernanke's direct statement of "yes we're printing" on 60 Minutes as a hat tip for the FOMC statement.
The guy said, "we will help all major banks, no exception". "We will provide all liquidity and someday in the future, we take it back"

But.. thats also truth, that the Eur/Usd pair for example, gave a signal to buy before the official announcement. So, what kind of argument this terrapin has left?

But again, forget markets, forget trading. The only point i made, and i made it clear, is that for some people with deep understanding of the balance sheets of this banks and auto companies, they know that 1 bailout is not enough.

The only argument until now, that this fxterrapin and Suntrader are giving for 1 month, is that i will get burn trading news..

Great persons, with cool minds, don't waste their time posting this pointless statements about traders they don't know.


Quoting fxterrapin
Wonder how long he will last.... They never last
And i'm the agressive? You already said this like 5 times, just guessing at random.

Look, let ask you something..

If you have a big trouble to understand that the date we join an internet forum, is not a measure of knowledge on the subject, how do you expect someone to believe that you are really a smart trader? Sure..

It was Google and ActionForex, that introduced Forex to me back in 2006. If FF was your impulse just last year, how do i care? Thats your thing not mine...

Quoting SunTrader
Predicting I leave to the crystal ball gazers
Its very clear that you have a lot of unexplained bitterness towards economists, even to the good ones, but the TV don't like people bringing the bad news in times when everyone is rich, so, all the Economists end up passing as a retarded class that can't predict nothing, and you like to cheerlead that wave.

Well, i have also some problems with the Keynesian stream that floods the actual media and brought us to this mess. But making the mistake you make, of actually believing that is impossible to predict macro economic events, because the majority can't do it. Its just wrong and weird.

The reason for that, is well recorded in Human History... How many guys in minority, passed as crazy by their peers when in fact they were the only ones discovering everything that evolve the world. By the way, is it impossible to trade, just because the majority loses?

Its the same thing everywhere and in everything. Nothing is impossible just because the cattle can't do it. And you know that, if you are really sucessful as you claim.

I just gave you the example of brushing Teeth and you keep ignoring it. You cannot bet if your teeth will fall in the next months, but five years without brush, say them good bye.

When you say, "I don't need to predict nothing", "i don't care about the future", thats fine by me.

But i don't like to rely on other people like politicians and news reporters to tell me what is happening.

I would hate to be the kind of person we see on the streets, that scream for politicians, to tell them how great they are, completly clueless of the eventual consequences.

I don't want to be watching TV and thinking, "Oh i hope this guy save us"

I like to know!

You clearly don't have the passion nor the knowledge to understand this and you probably think that anyone can learn economics just by watching the news coming out everyday. But you are wrong. This FF and DailyFx news are sentiment and cycle indicators, they are mainly consequences not the causes.
A really good economist and investor looks for the causes and roots of the problem, analysing how productive is the money beeing spent and how far is the overall equilibrium to sustain the same path.

You have to make a good check on your moral standards, because its incredible that you come to this foruns, mocking people that like to understand whats ahead.

Searching for more knowledge is a reason to applaud.

By the way, i also gave you the example, of a business guy that wants to expand a store with credit, not being aware of a recession.

This is why we should know. Of course he might not earn as much as he could have, but putting together new expensive Capital (like machinary and new buildings) just to find out that the earnings would be less in next years, is a mistake.

The only difference about trading is the fact that we can get in and out at will, and thats why we should wait for signals to get in or out.

Think about this. The market is bullish... and you see something really bad in the horizont, but if you enter, you are only able to get out 1 year after the opening position. Would you get in?

This is perfectly appliable to the housing market. The market was saying buy, but when you buy a house, you cant get rid of it without some pain and legal problems. Thats why Fundamentals matter, not in trading but (buildings, machinery, new hirings, etc). Long Term, Weekly, Montly, Years

If someone tries to trade one new in the hourly chart, he has to wait more than 700 hourly candles, until they see the same indicator in the next month.

Of course its worthless in short term, but only, poor brains can't see this, and confuse it with real Investing.

The Investing that made Buffet, Soros, and Rogers Billionairs. Wake up people. Do you see a pattern?? Fundamentals/Billionaires? Huh?




It boggles my mind, how can people actually have to the nerve to claim that fundamentals are worthless in any aspect of life, even after we are seeing that it was that kind of thinking that lead banks, people, governments to create the biggest bubble of all time. Because they thought it would work forever.
  • #138
  • Mar 21, 2009 1:09pm Mar 21, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting Speculator
Great persons, with cool minds, don't waste their time posting this pointless statements about traders they don't know.
No instead they type out paragraph after paragraph after paragraph of useless, pointless statements. Do you actually read before you click submit reply? Seriously.

No need to respond, I have unsubscribed to the thread.
Back to trading and not analyzing.
  • #139
  • Edited 5:36pm Mar 21, 2009 1:59pm | Edited 5:36pm
You proved my words in minutes.

Look at the bitterness in your post, pure impatience and rage. Very Far from a relaxed cool minded guy with a divine gift which characterizes a sucessful trader. Again.. you finish with... "lets get to trading", to deceive the readers into believing that i don't trade..


You did understand everything i said, but what makes you so mad, is that, its so brilliant that you fall in disbelief, seeing such an outstanding piece of work about business management.


Lets trade! I love having a flawless 80% winning ratio. I'm going for 90%.. just wait!
  • #140
  • Mar 21, 2009 7:01pm Mar 21, 2009 7:01pm
Guys,

The Pattern was there. Plain as day.

this is my post on the 8th and the chart showing the pattern of trend.

Quote
continue on from the weekly chart i posted.........

below is the daily eur/usd chart.

The following are Mclaren principles of pattern of trend. I am a student of MclLarens pattern of trend principals. ( still studying!)

I want to concentrate on the current move down from (dec 23 to now) from the 50% high point of the fist move down.

this is a continuation of the down trend that started out as normal trend with 2-4 bar retraces. the trend then changes to a creeping trend with the retracment high going into the last support low above. this is called a creeping trend.

creeping or slow trends can show a weakening trend, as I think is happening now. the trend has creeped down to zone of the low set in oct08 - nov 08. there was a retrace in the section the range that is more then 12 bars and shows more evidence of a weaking trend.

due to the struggling nature of the price action combined with it sitting on the low really is starting to suggest that accumulation is taking place and a rally is building.

the low has to hold with out a normal trend moving though it. I would like to see a move up with a higher low containing a retracment to make that with 2-4 bars.

time to sit back and wait for the pattern of trend to complete. if it completes the 50% retrace point high is my first major target.
So I can't see why all the arguments about patten being or not being there. If you are familure with Mclaren then this was a easy one. (I caught it)

I was and you would have been in the market long before the FED gave you a unforeseen bonus! Now I do agree determining the actual amount the FED announcement
would produce is impossible.

I filled in roughly what happened.

cheers
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