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Charting and Trading Daily Reversal Points

  • #41
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:44am Mar 8, 2009 9:44am
Hey BlackWolf......

I have not heard from Gary all weekend. I am assuming that he is busy with family and all. The last test I gave the EA it still had a few bugs, but I would imagine I will get an updated version of the EA today if he is not too busy.

I think we are close with the EA. I will make it available when all the bugs are worked out. So right now we are posting charts. I love reading what people think about what the market is going to do and what It will do.

There is a point everyday where the market reverses from and goes the other direction. We need to find that point. That is why I am hoping to get a small group of people who are committed to finding those points on a daily basis. Because if we can get good at that, the EA will handle the rest.

so, for now it is just general observations.

Damon

Quoting BlackWolf
Damon,

Pardon my temporary ignorance but are we testing an EA yet or just posting charts to make sure we have the correct template and indicators set up? I know I don't have the EA yet, perhaps others do?

Also, does the first post give us everything we need at this point to fully understand the strategy - including how to analyze the chart as per this system - or are you just asking for general observations on where we think price is heading next?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #42
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:50am Mar 8, 2009 9:50am
Helo...I have updated the templates in post #1. I will try to get a new updated template every Sunday. Other than that, you can follow along with my daily charting.

Enjoy
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #43
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:52am Mar 8, 2009 9:52am
This is good Longer Term Stuff. I will be curious to see where you think a pair or two will hit support/resistence on Monday to give us lots of nice pips.

Damon

Quoting BlackWolf
My best guess at this point without Sunday's bar yet? You have a double bottom already in place (12/17/08 and 01/21/09). Suggests heavy upside run for some distance still yet to go. 3/6/09 bar is the smart money (market movers) running the trailing stops on the longs who have already jumped onboard the current run up. Smart money is holding a lot of long trades (scooped up from the shorts who cashed out during the shake out in the double bottom) and they want more profits. The retracement bars on 2/27 and 3/2 didn't do the trick, hence, the 3/6...
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #44
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:55am Mar 8, 2009 9:55am
Hey Blackwolf...

Please use the latest template to start your evaluations with. It will be a little less frenetic and easier to read and evaluate. I have put a new grouping up in the 1st post

Quoting BlackWolf
Damon,

Pardon my temporary ignorance but are we testing an EA yet or just posting charts to make sure we have the correct template and indicators set up? I know I don't have the EA yet, perhaps others do?

Also, does the first post give us everything we need at this point to fully understand the strategy - including how to analyze the chart as per this system - or are you just asking for general observations on where we think price is heading next?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #45
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:02am Mar 8, 2009 10:02am
Quoting damonl
Yes I am to blame . I hope that you will be around for testing. Shall I put you on the list?
yes buddy put me on the list.. I sent you a private message response to your private message. I assumed you got it.

I have read through the thread and I agree with you. There is a point usually that a pair reverses. Let's see what we can come up with.
  • #46
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:03am Mar 8, 2009 10:03am
Quoting BlackWolf
Damon,

Pardon my temporary ignorance but are we testing an EA yet or just posting charts to make sure we have the correct template and indicators set up? I know I don't have the EA yet, perhaps others do?

Also, does the first post give us everything we need at this point to fully understand the strategy - including how to analyze the chart as per this system - or are you just asking for general observations on where we think price is heading next?
Hey wolf, glad you asked cause I was going loco too hee hee
  • #47
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:05am Mar 8, 2009 10:05am
Sounds good, and actually I shojld recan't my original statement. There is a place where a pair reverses or a point where it stops and continues in the same direction as yesterdays bar. Both are very important points to locate each day

Quoting llambert3
yes buddy put me on the list.. I sent you a private message response to your private message. I assumed you got it.

I have read through the thread and I agree with you. There is a point usually that a pair reverses. Let's see what we can come up with.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #48
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:28am Mar 8, 2009 10:28am
Quoting damonl
Sounds good, and actually I shojld recan't my original statement. There is a place where a pair reverses or a point where it stops and continues in the same direction as yesterdays bar. Both are very important points to locate each day
Yes, and it seems sometimes from 7pm est to around midnight the pair will go one direction then reverse after that or continue in the direction.. sometimes the first 30min a pair will go one way and then reverse for the rest of the day. And even a 200 pip day can go down 200 pips immediately and even close down 200 pips, but in between it swings back and forth to the daily open before finally closing down. Then one time my dog bit my leg and it bled, but then it stopped before bleeding again. I couldn't ever figure that out!
  • #49
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:40am Mar 8, 2009 10:40am
It is true, but we are not concerned with time here unless you can watch your chart all day. We are looking for logical points on the chart where the pair is likely to move in the ther direction. The ranging motion has been dealt with in the EA as best as possible, so that is covered and once our ranges have been set, we let the EA do it's job as Open Trades Manager.

Our job is to input at what price to start managing are trades. This is much easier than sitting at a computer all day and night. Finding that price is our challenge and one that I am sure we will get better at as time goes on. I tis said you need to take emotion out of trading. Well, we need to erase all we think when looking at our charts and just see at what points price can reverse and give us our entry for a nice long trade worth hundreds of pips.

Opinions mean nothing here which is good because most people are full of BS anyway and only like to hear themselves talk. Here there is no BS. We have our charts and if we were wrong in our evaluations there is no one to blame but ourselves.

Taking responsibility for our trades is paramount to being better traders.

Looking forward to having you around

Quoting llambert3
Yes, and it seems sometimes from 7pm est to around midnight the pair will go one direction then reverse after that or continue in the direction.. sometimes the first 30min a pair will go one way and then reverse for the rest of the day. And even a 200 pip day can go down 200 pips immediately and even close down 200 pips, but in between it swings back and forth to the daily open before finally closing down. Then one time my dog bit my leg and it bled, but then it stopped before bleeding again. I couldn't ever figure that out!
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #50
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:43am Mar 8, 2009 10:43am
Quoting damonl
It is true, but we are not concerned with time here unless you can watch your chart all day. We are looking for logical points on the chart where the pair is likely to move in the ther direction. The ranging motion has been dealt with in the EA as best as possible, so that is covered and once our ranges have been set, we let the EA do it's job as Open Trades Manager.

Our job is to input at what price to start managing are trades. This is much easier than sitting at a computer all day and night. Finding that price is our challenge and one that...
Yes!!! I just never looked at any logical reason a price reversed (or continued) like you are, so let's see what we can come up with.
  • #51
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:55am Mar 8, 2009 10:55am
There is a logical reason that pairs do everything and it has to do with following the path of least resistence. If price hits an area of support and there is not enough momentum to push through that area, it will have no other choice but to head back up to the next area of resistnece.

For the most part what I am doing with this EA is buying when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.

We will for the most part be able to keep our stops tight and let our profits run.

Might sound backwards I know, but it is the way the market works,

Quoting llambert3
Yes!!! I just never looked at any logical reason a price reversed (or continued) like you are, so let's see what we can come up with.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #52
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:24am Mar 8, 2009 11:24am
Quoting damonl
There is a logical reason that pairs do everything and it has to do with following the path of least resistence. If price hits an area of support and there is not enough momentum to push through that area, it will have no other choice but to head back up to the next area of resistnece.

For the most part what I am doing with this EA is buying when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.

We will for the most part be able to keep our stops tight and let our profits run.

Might sound backwards I know, but it is the way...

selling peaks and buying valleys is the way to go I should clarify that when I said "I just never looked at any logical reason a price reversed (or continued) like you are", I meant using fractals/murry math. Obviously after all the years I've been here, I know about pivots and fibs, etc. Now that I know you are using peaks and valleys I am LIKING IT!!!
  • #53
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:25am Mar 8, 2009 11:25am
by the way, your signature has too many http: in it so it doesn't work.
  • #54
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:30am Mar 8, 2009 11:30am
thanks for the hesds up...I will correct that right now

Quoting llambert3
by the way, your signature has too many http: in it so it doesn't work.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #55
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:31pm Mar 8, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting BlackWolf
Gary: It's time for you to get an avatar, man. I'm thinking maybe a photo of 8 hotdog buns in a wrapper, whatcha think?
Too late...... I ate them!

Gary
  • #56
  • Mar 8, 2009 2:05pm Mar 8, 2009 2:05pm
Hi All -

Back from a weekend helping out my youngest son in Orlando. I've sent the lasted test version of the ea to Damon just a bit ago. Working pretty well, couple of bugs we noticed Friday I've hopefully fixed.

I need to now settle in and read some charts to make my educated.....er, wild......er,prayerful.......er,wishful........what the heck, I'll just copy Damon's numbers!!

Gary
  • #57
  • Edited 2:21pm Mar 8, 2009 2:08pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting damonl
There is a logical reason that pairs do everything and it has to do with following the path of least resistence. If price hits an area of support and there is not enough momentum to push through that area, it will have no other choice but to head back up to the next area of resistnece.

For the most part what I am doing with this EA is buying when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.

We will for the most part be able to keep our stops tight and let our profits run.

Might sound backwards I know, but it is the way...
THIS...is exactly what the Smart Money does BUT...they can stay in the fight longer on the drawn downs because they have deeper pockets and more capital.

The only early caution and concern I have about this is that it is the smart money that moves and turns the markets - they decide when they want to do it, not a "magic" mathematical formula. Have you ever noticed that Fib and Elliot waves are never an exact, consistent, always replicating and dependable pattern? Thats by design. So...while I think we might find some general "zones" where the market turns and reverses (daily basis), I'm not very optimistic that you will find an exact dependable calculated "price" that it will consistently do so. Why? Because in order for the smart money to turn the markets, they have to flush out all the coattail hangers first and this never happens on a consistent and predicable basis. My prediction post earler gives you an example of how they tried, failed, and then tried again. But I'm always open minded and willing to try/test anything!
- Bowen (a.k.a. Wolf)
  • #58
  • Mar 8, 2009 2:23pm Mar 8, 2009 2:23pm
Hey Blackwolf..... We are doing it differently still. Once we determine our areas where we think the market will move the other way, then we let the EA locate our entries based on the programming. Also, an exact number is not needed. We are using a range for the EA to start looking for trades. Let's say you have support at 1.2500. You would set your Lower Range at lets sat 1.2510, and set your threshold to 70. This means that when price gets to 1.210 and until price gets to 1.2440, that 70 pip range, the EA will be looking for the entry parameters to me met before entering a trade.

The lower value you give to your threshold, the less of a chance you have for entering a trade, but the safer trades you will be entering.

Does this make sense?

And better yet, we are doing this on a daily basis. For every bar and most trades will only be open for 1 day with a few maybe going into the next day. We will be looking for bounce points on a daily basis where price will go. That lower support where price finally bounces up, I call a valley. And vice versa for a resistence level. Are stops are very tight because we are not concerned with the long term. We are only looking at today. Living for today...for this moment only. Where is price going to do today and what will it do when it gets there.

No deep pockets needed my friend. I have given a whole new definition to peaks and valleys . And I never use fibs or elliot waves. And for the most part our t/p areas will be 4 to 5 times what are s/l is set to.

Quoting BlackWolf
THIS...is exactly what the Smart Money does BUT...they can stay in the fight longer on the drawn downs because they have deeper pockets and more capital.

The only early caution and concern I have about this is that it is the smart money that moves and turns the markets - they decide when they want to do it. Have you ever noticed that Fib and Elliot waves are never an exact, consistent, always replicating and dependable pattern? Thats by design. So...while I think we might find some general "zones" where the market turns and reverses (daily basis),...
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #59
  • Mar 8, 2009 2:31pm Mar 8, 2009 2:31pm
I did get the newset version and will go and load it up now. Then I will have to wait until the Sunday bar closes to go over my numbers for the day.

You are awesome and I look forward to helping you with your charts. You will get, it is not as hard is it looks

Quoting Pavatar
Hi All -

Back from a weekend helping out my youngest son in Orlando. I've sent the lasted test version of the ea to Damon just a bit ago. Working pretty well, couple of bugs we noticed Friday I've hopefully fixed.

I need to now settle in and read some charts to make my educated.....er, wild......er,prayerful.......er,wishful........what the heck, I'll just copy Damon's numbers!!

Gary
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #60
  • Mar 8, 2009 2:38pm Mar 8, 2009 2:38pm

The following points represent the path of least resistance:

If selling has decreased on any down-move, the market will then want to go up (no selling pressure).


If buying has decreased on any up-move, the market will want to fall (no demand),


Both these points represent the path of least resistance.


It takes an increase of buying, on up-days (or bars), to force the market up.


It takes an increase of selling, on down-days (or bars), to force the market down.


No selling pressure (no supply) indicates that there is not an increase in selling on any down-move.

No demand (no buying), shows that there is little buying on any up-move.
- Bowen (a.k.a. Wolf)
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