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Silent Service Method

  • #281
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:03am Mar 7, 2009 11:03am
Hi Clockwork - thanks for an interesting thread.

On the lower time frames I've long viewed S and R levels as "zones" rather than a fixed 1 pip level and most of my current trades are based on price action around the 50 and 100 levels.

This chart is drawn from this point of view, after going out to the weekly and monthly TFs and I'll be pulling up a lot more simailar charts across different currencies as I move into more selective trading rather than focusing on two or three pairs as I have in the past.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #282
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:33am Mar 7, 2009 11:33am
The reason I have brought up some of these previous questions will start to make a little more sense as we go along......this is one of those times where I hope this kind of puts a few pieces together.

Trade management is essentially an exercise in psychology.

I know this sounds odd, but follow me for a few on this one. I hope I can convince you on this one, because it made all the difference in the world for me.

#1 - You have to know what amount you are comfortable risking. Part of this is to no longer be bothered about money amounts, but to start thinking and seeing the market in terms of percentage. It sounds stupid, but it's true.

If you are worried about the amount you are risking, it will get you out of trades too quickly because of fear. It will get you into your next trade too quickly because of need to get it back.....it's one of the most dangerous things....to be risking more than you can comfortably lose.

#2 - You need to know if you have a need to be right most of the time, or can take a low winning percentage with being profitable at the same time. Hall of fame baseball players have batting averages that work out to 35% or so. Think about that.

You can trade either way, but each has it's advantages/disadvantages. YOU need to decide what's right for you.

# 3 - I have this theory, if you aren't comfortable enough in a trade to walk away from it and go on about your life, you are putting too much effort into this. The truth is that trading does not have to be a stressful or difficult thing. It really is the simplest way to make money I have ever found. It's not the trading that makes it difficult. (Any idiot can buy or sell something.) It's you that makes this difficult. I know this is said over and over.....but I really have found this to be true.

There are other things that come into play with trade management, obviously. They will be explored as time goes on. I am planning on writing some kind of "checklist" for the potential trades you may see.....it might take me a while to phrase it just right, so be patient please.

Also, it's so much easier to do this in webinars and videos than just posting......I guess I underestimated that.

CW
  • #283
  • Mar 7, 2009 12:10pm Mar 7, 2009 12:10pm
Clockwork...another 5 star thead to follow...congrats ...

I end up sitting here sometimes for hours because I have so much to read (i often find myself staying up till 4 am just perusing and absorbing new stuff) and watching the charts are just a corollary (I've come to love price alerts - otherwise I couldn't be on Flight Simulator or watching my umpteen favorite cop series) and I have become more and more prone to go out and enjoy the freedom I have now - a nice lunch overlooking the sea can be as rewarding as banking a few pips...gets even better when you come back and have achieved both...

regarding the always right...I fell into that after suffering a major dd in dec 08 and feel i MIGHT just be getting over it to the point I can once again put a trade up and let it run - although I'll admit that if I'm here and I don't like the gut feeling I get I'll pull stops up tight or simply get out...

in short my rules are
1 capital preservation
2 capital appreciation
3 never forget rule number 1.

cheers....
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #284
  • Mar 7, 2009 12:46pm Mar 7, 2009 12:46pm
Just because I like you guys . Blue lines are weekly trendlines.

What do you see? Anyone? Anyone? Bullish Flag? Anyone? Anyone?

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #285
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:18pm Mar 7, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting damonl
Just because I like you guys . Blue lines are weekly trendlines.

What do you see? Anyone? Anyone? Bullish Flag? Anyone? Anyone?

Attachment

I can see everything but price on this chart.

Too many lines for my liking, and I don't consider it a flag yet. I know it's wanting to go north.....but look at all that trouble it has had. Some could call this a quadruple-top forming.

CW
  • #286
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:29pm Mar 7, 2009 2:29pm
Yeah...it wil take a while yet, but it looks like adding longs down at the lower ascending blue trendline is a winner. It may retrace back to that 3 or 4 times before breaking out of that and fundamentally I don't see things changing for a few years. Seems like a safe place to place orders to me

Quoting clockwork71
I can see everything but price on this chart.

Too many lines for my liking, and I don't consider it a flag yet. I know it's wanting to go north.....but look at all that trouble it has had. Some could call this a quadruple-top forming.

CW
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #287
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:43pm Mar 7, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting damonl
Just because I like you guys . Blue lines are weekly trendlines.

What do you see? Anyone? Anyone? Bullish Flag? Anyone? Anyone?

Attachment
Of course you could be very right. I wouldn't take the trade however. On the smaller timeframes you see price touched the 1.30 zone, then went back to the 1.27 zone and now its moving around 1.28. I'd wait for the price to settle at an S/R zone again, and enter the market when it makes a clear move in one direction again.

Are you aiming to take 100ish pips profit going long, or do you expect the price to break 1.3?
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The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #288
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:50pm Mar 7, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting Noloqy
Of course you could be very right. I wouldn't take the trade however. On the smaller timeframes you see price touched the 1.30 zone, then went back to the 1.27 zone and now its moving around 1.28. I'd wait for the price to settle at an S/R zone again, and enter the market when it makes a clear move in one direction again.

Are you aiming to take 100ish pips profit going long, or do you expect the price to break 1.3?
Nice chart.
  • #289
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:20pm Mar 7, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting Noloqy
Of course you could be very right. I wouldn't take the trade however. On the smaller timeframes you see price touched the 1.30 zone, then went back to the 1.27 zone and now its moving around 1.28. I'd wait for the price to settle at an S/R zone again, and enter the market when it makes a clear move in one direction again.

Are you aiming to take 100ish pips profit going long, or do you expect the price to break 1.3?
Actually I expect it to come down lower than 127 in all honesty. It depends, it may range here until the trendline catches up. Besides, I buy valleys and we are just leaving a peak, it is good advice not to buy right now. But will watch the charts and see. Eventually I see the price going way higher the 1.3, but trades what your charts tell you. I am just giving direction so I have a foundation to trade from, but I will definitely be looking long on my weekly trendlines.

100 pips....I'm looking for 1000's actually.
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #290
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:56pm Mar 7, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting damonl
Actually I expect it to come down lower than 1.27...

Agreed.
  • #291
  • Mar 7, 2009 4:57pm Mar 7, 2009 4:57pm
Clockwork,

I know you advocate using weekly s/r areas to trade off of the daily TF. I bumbed into a post on J16 where Mike mentions you should trade the PA that appears on the s/r area of the specific TF you are looking at. He says:

"IMO if you found the Support on a weekly timeframe, you should wait for a weekly PA trigger. My reasoning for this is that the weekly should allow enough information where as the daily might give us false triggers until we find the appropriate area within this "zone". Be patient for the appropriate signals."

Just wanted your opinion on this. Will daily PA be significant enough or offer you enough info to take a trade based on a weekly s/r line? Is it safer to take the trade based on the s/r of the TF you're looking at?
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #292
  • Mar 7, 2009 5:08pm Mar 7, 2009 5:08pm
Somewhere in this thread, I mentioned that I only use weekly ones because I believe they are the ones that truly matter. To be honest, I don't agree with what he said.

However, I agree so much as to say....you shouldn't base a trade (or management) based upon a lower time frame. I assume that is what he meant.

I see no problem with taking a daily 4 hour 1 hour, whatever off of a weekly line.

But that's just me.


Quoting Santana55
Clockwork,

I know you advocate using weekly s/r areas to trade off of the daily TF. I bumbed into a post on J16 where Mike mentions you should trade the PA that appears on the s/r area of the specific TF you are looking at. He says:

"IMO if you found the Support on a weekly timeframe, you should wait for a weekly PA trigger. My reasoning for this is that the weekly should allow enough information where as the daily might give us false triggers until we find the appropriate area within this "zone". Be patient for the appropriate signals."

Just...
  • #293
  • Mar 7, 2009 6:23pm Mar 7, 2009 6:23pm
Here is a daily chart with the same lines I had on the weekly chart. It is safe to say that on my weekly charts, the only lines to look at are the blue ones

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Here is the same chart zoomed out a bit'

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Quoting clockwork71
I can see everything but price on this chart.

Too many lines for my liking, and I don't consider it a flag yet. I know it's wanting to go north.....but look at all that trouble it has had. Some could call this a quadruple-top forming.

CW
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #294
  • Mar 7, 2009 7:30pm Mar 7, 2009 7:30pm
A chart and a thought on exits.
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  • #295
  • Mar 7, 2009 7:40pm Mar 7, 2009 7:40pm
Clockwork71, I am truely enjoying this thread. It seems to be "calling" to something inside of myself.

About the S/R "zone".....I thought it would be nice to be able to show these on a Weekly chart with some backdrop color. Then save the template and use it for the lower TFs. That way, the colored zones are always there as a gentle reminder, and in a way that leaves the chart uncluttered from numerous price lines. I attempted to write an indy using the OBJ RECTANGLE function in MT4, but cannot get the durned thing to work.

Do you, or does anyone viewing this thread, know of an indicator that allows the user to input top and bottom prices for a zone, and a color choice....and it will color fill that price range as a backdrop band across the screen? If so, would they please post it?

It would be easy for me to expand such an indy to provide for inputting multiple H/L prices describing "zones", so that multiple zones could be drawn....and once done, each zone could be independently turned on/off to suit the users preference. The indy could be used when defining S&R and zones on the Week chart, and then the template saved. The user then could select the template for other charts/TFs and on each such chart turn on/off each zone, depending on what they wanted to see on that specific chart.

So, my quest is to find an indy that accepts 2 prices, and then draws a colored backdrop band across the screen between those two prices. I hope someone can help get me started on this. Should it come to pass, I will freely post the final indicator .mq4 file for all to use.

Thank you for sharing, clockwork71.
  • #296
  • Mar 7, 2009 8:16pm Mar 7, 2009 8:16pm
i see i see, dont let the amount of pips dicate when to bring your stop to break even, wait for it to get past a S+R level and then place it behind that...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #297
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:05pm Mar 7, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting traderathome
Clockwork71, I am truely enjoying this thread. It seems to be "calling" to something inside of myself.

About the S/R "zone".....I thought it would be nice to be able to show these on a Weekly chart with some backdrop color. Then save the template and use it for the lower TFs. That way, the colored zones are always there as a gentle reminder, and in a way that leaves the chart uncluttered from numerous price lines. I attempted to write an indy using the OBJ RECTANGLE function in MT4, but cannot get the durned thing to work.

Do you, or does...
Great idea.....too bad I can't help you on this one.
  • #298
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:07pm Mar 7, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting whitegoodman
i see i see, dont let the amount of pips dicate when to bring your stop to break even, wait for it to get past a S+R level and then place it behind that...
Exactly. Let's ask a serious question here:

"Does the market care if you are up 20, 30 , or even 100 pips?"

The answer of course is "No." So I would never let that dictate where I place stops. (Although a lot of people do.) I would be more interested on figuring out where stops are most likely to be...and placing a stop behind them.

Let the other guy's orders protect yours whenever possible.
  • #299
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:45pm Mar 7, 2009 11:45pm
CW,
Just a query about your previous chart.
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  • #300
  • Mar 8, 2009 7:23am Mar 8, 2009 7:23am
It is exceptional to get an understanding about why people and PA behave in a certain way on higher time frames.

Thanks for sharing this information with us!
Deprive a man of everything and you give him nothing to lose.
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