Trading EUR/USD & Majors, Longer Term

I think this report from the Action Forex tells it very well - http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2009030681118/

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4075 level and was capped around the $1.4305 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw February producer price inflation rise +0.1% m/m and 3.1% y/y, the lowest annual increase since September 2007. Also, PPI input prices were up 0.6% m/m, defying expectations of a pullback. U.K. government minister Malloch-Brown reported the depreciation in sterling has not been an "engineered policy" and said the G20 meeting in London on 2 April will see the U.K. call for measures to monitor protectionist policies. Construction sector output was off 7% q/q in Q4 and this helped cause GDP to contract 1.5%, the largest quarterly contraction since 1980. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.3740 level.

After that terrible US data came out, the cable has still fallen over all in the day. There aren't too many good fundermental reasons to buy the cable. There is a lot of downwards pressure on it. I would not be surprised to see new lows soon.

We shall see, we shall see. I'm holding a short on the cable at the moment, along with a short on the G/J. They are long term positions so yes, I will hold over the weekend.

I still have a firm Bearish sentiment towards the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD, short and medium term.

Commitment of Traders, Just released for past week of trading. If you don't know the COT report, it basically shows the contracts that a set number of traders have commited to.

The COT report is a great way to measure market sentiment, which ultimitely drives the market.

EURO - 10,324 more short contracts that the previous week, which was already bearish. Sentiment - Bearish.

Eurodollars (USD) - Still quite a few more long contracts than short contracts. There was a similar number of reductions in long and short contracts.

GBP - Overall, still many more short contracts than long contracts, however, over 3 times as many longs placed in the past week than short orders. Maybe a consolidation week for the GBP. There is still significantly more traders holding shorts for this currency, suggesting a continued weak outlook.

JPY - Absolutely hammered from last week. There are a lot of shorts added, however, still significantly more long contracts than shorts held. Sentiment towards the JPY is down at the moment, but the fact that the COT traders haven't been dumping their longs suggests they expect the JPY to remain relatively strong.

In this financial crisis, the USD, JPY and CHF have been the safe havens for risk aversion.

Looks like you're going strong here.

How has CCI worked for you? About the only indi I've had use for was MACD. Wonder if it ends up measuring the same thing...

I dont follow your reasoning as you're concentrating on the Non Commercials (speculators) rather than the Commercials (professionals aka Big Dogs)