The WoRmHoLe

I have pulled the plug from the last trade call I made for cable. Reason is obvious, price is choppy and the last 8hour candle failed to close within the channel. My 4hrly cci is creeping up into the +100 level, early signs of what would usually be a surge up. Cut my losses & closed out @4135, bearing a -19 red. Sitting on my hands for the time being & will wait for London before deciding. Good luck.

Timely exit, system worked like a charm . Cable should climb further after a pullback. We'll wait this one out and weigh our option before making an entry again. Cable will have to break clear past 4265 before we consider long. Failure of breakout, we'll consider our short options. Good luck.

For those interested to short cable. I have took a small short position @4215 sl@4350.
Took the position based on the 3 black crows formation presented on the hourly & the 4hrly shooting star formation. Higly risky trade but worth a shot nonetheless.
Will post the chart later. Good luck.

This is the chart for post #179 explaining the small position I took earlier.
I did mentioned earlier that 4265 level need to be properly breached before long position should be considered. That level had offered a respectable resistance before & coincidentally the bearish 3 black crows formed after met with the resistance. I had also placed the wide stop loss for a reason. It is placed well beyond the triangle forming on the 3rd February (low) & 9th February (high). Draw a trendline and you will see it. Should cable move up breaching the resistance & the triangle, I will go long. Unless that happens, atm my bias remains short. We'll see what the nfp data has in store for us.
Good luck everyone.

Not huge. MONSTER.
Anyway, I'll need her to break this channel and the support @4150 I have on the other chart (post #188) before adding up. That will probably be next hour. But I have no problems waiting.

Source : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...154363&page=14

source : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...154363&page=14

Welp, I have added another small position to my trade. Wouldn't want to spoil this week's gains
First short @4215 stop had been amended, albeit a small move.
Second short taken @4113.
1. short @4215 sl@4200
2. short @4113 sl@4300

The reason I have the second position taken is that it had already closed well below 4150 resistance which is the horizontal line I have on the hourly chart. The hourly up ascending channel had already been broken and she is moving within my 4hrly descending channel. So, no reason for me to hold back. I will look to amend my stops when price closes at 4000 level. If she doesn't I will tighten my stops before ny session closes and carry her over the weekend.

sofia! thank you for your support! looking forward to your views and analysis

Well this week has ended, but fortunately I'm still in I have decided to carry both of my entries into the coming week with my stops amended.
Previously this was the entry & sl
1. short @4215 sl@4200
2. short @4113 sl@4300

Now they're amended to
1.short @4215 sl@4120
2.short @4113 sl@4150

Now I have no problems carrying trades over the weekend if the situation fits.
And this seems like a fitting situation.
I'm signing off now, it's 5:51 am right now for me. I badly need some sleep.
So see you guys next week & enjoy your weekend! I know I will

Nice trades in for a ride WB, thanks for the invite, gladly hang my hat here as we spiral through the wormhole destination UNKNOWN. catch u Sunday/monday

Hi worm!

Following your idea about a "serious" thread, ill start posting some analysis to keep record on those and put them public.
---------------
OK! Here a quick view on daily starting from harmonic view and pitchfork.

Price often test S&R.... making those kind of 5 points pattern XABCD.

Starting from 0/100 then correction of 38.2 then 78.6 next target is minimum 11.4% = reverse of 88.6 = 1.3671.
The close of today under 1.4100 wasen't good enough yet to get under 1.4068 but help to beleive that 1.3671 will come sooner then later.

Pure pattern: http://www.harmonictrader.com/batbullre.jpg

IN PLAY:

Commitment of Traders, Just released for past week of trading. If you don't know the COT report, it basically shows the contracts that a set number of traders have commited to.

The COT report is a great way to measure market sentiment, which ultimitely drives the market.

EURO - 10,324 more short contracts that the previous week, which was already bearish. Sentiment - Bearish.

Eurodollars (USD) - Still quite a few more long contracts than short contracts. There was a similar number of reductions in long and short contracts.

GBP - Overall, still many more short contracts than long contracts, however, over 3 times as many longs placed in the past week than short orders. Maybe a consolidation week for the GBP. There is still significantly more traders holding shorts for this currency, suggesting a continued weak outlook.

JPY - Absolutely hammered from last week. There are a lot of shorts added, however, still significantly more long contracts than shorts held. Sentiment towards the JPY is down at the moment, but the fact that the COT traders haven't been dumping their longs suggests they expect the JPY to remain relatively strong.

In this financial crisis, the USD, JPY and CHF have been the safe havens for risk aversion.

Time for a good rest at the weekend, and to plan the week ahead on Sunday eve.

Hey, WormDude!!

Congrats on starting your journal. Looks like a great start!

Hey Wormboy:

Congrats on your new thread.

Thanks for the invite to your new thread. I have hung out in the cable thread just watching all of the gunslinging going on over there. Nice to see a thread with what will hopefully be good analysis from a a variety of different traders. I am a newbie to the forex markets and still trying to find my trading style.

Originally was a indicator trader on the lower TF. Just didn't work for me. I was just glued to the monitor. Have now been looking to to the 1Hr, 4HR and daily charts.

I would describe my style (strategy) as that of trading S/R areas, TL along with corresponding fibs. My charts are very simple in nature. No indicators really. Just horizontal and diagonal lines.

Seems to be working for me. I have learned to expand my SL somewhat based on the higher TF's. This scenario tends to keep me in the trades and not get stopped out only to see the trend go the direction I had anticipated.

I may also do some day scalping if market presents itself.

Hope to be able to add something to your thread.

Koorb

Well, this is a typically uneventful Saturday for me. I had two great weekends in phuket & singapore last week. This week here I'm just lazing around at home with nothing to do.
So, I've decided to take the time to explain a bit on how my trade works.
I have no killer trading system. It's basically just plain charts that you'll find aplenty around the factory. Same old same old. Some of you are already aware that I utilize wide stops. I trade very defensively. That is my holy grail.
Now I had been slated & most recently been ridiculed for using wide stops. Well, I trade off the larger timeframes & the use of tight stops are near impossible for me.
The most recent was the trade call I made on cable two days back (refer to post #18) I had placed a 269 points mark for my stop. Well, there were valid reasons as to why I pulled that mark out. Well technically if you refer to post #24 you will find the answer. Two strong resistance level stand in the way before my stop could be triggered. Psychologically a 300 points mark is near impossible to be triggered immediately. It buys me time to re evaluate my position should the trade turn the other way. And post #21 proved it as I decided to call off the trade and took a measly 19 pips loss. (btw, the 269 points stop wouldn't have been triggered anyway if it let that trade run, as cable failed to break the 4265 resistance level & closed below 4100 as we close yesterday).
And finally, the other reason I am not afraid to use wide stops is the way I work around my equity. Yes, money management. I only make trades between 0.1 to 1.0 full lot. Nothing more. At the moment I can pull a full lot trade with a 400 points stop yet I will only be risking a total of 1.5% of my total equity. So do the math. Don't get me wrong, I do get losing trades from time to time, but I've managed to make timely exit with these wide stops. I'd be a complete fool to let my trade turn and ram straight into my wide stops if the bad trade had been identified prior to. My point is, I know my risk tolerance & I'm pretty sure most of the sound traders know theirs. For the handful who are still clueless, you need to work that part out & worry about the technical side of trading after. This is something not anyone here in the factory can help you with, they can only offer advise on the matter as far as it goes. There are some really good articles on money management & trading psychology in the rookie discussion for reference.
Remember, one needs luck to win but it takes skills to lose. You can only guess how much the trade can lead to profit, but you can be assured of how much losses you are able to take from a trade.
I hope I've cleared the air regarding the matter.

Cheers.

Inzider, not too serious I hope! You know I'm full of it
sofia, orion, koorb, galation, amertrini thanks again for the support. Keep them coming. I hope to see some of the other gurus here sharing their views and analysis in the near future.
And opie, great to have you here my friend. We have the skulls here, now all we need is bones
Guess I am off for now, grab some food, wait a couple of hours and I'm off to the club. Parrrrrrrrrtyyyyyy
Have a wonderful weekend everyone! Ta!

Hey WB,
Thanks for the invite - looking forward to everyones analysis and hope to contribute.

GL

Glad to hear you opened a trading journal. If time permits i will drop time to time and maybe post a chart or two. Lots of good trading opportunities comeing so lots of focus, patience and discipline is required.

Safe trading and cheers!