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Don't get sucked in by dollar strength

  • #101
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:06pm Mar 5, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting kareem
something to think about,the dollar will be the first to get strong,because when it decline everbody else went down behind it
  • #102
  • Mar 6, 2009 1:07am Mar 6, 2009 1:07am
USD bears coming back as expected
  • #103
  • Mar 6, 2009 1:32am Mar 6, 2009 1:32am
Quoting belekas
USD bears coming back as expected
What does Sir Igrok think about the fate of the dollar belekas?

He's definitely one to be taken seriously.
  • #104
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:12am Mar 6, 2009 7:12am
The US Dollar is up over 13% since Christmas. While you fundamental guys sit around and tell each other how smart you are the rest of us are trading the charts and making pips. Keep up the good work.
  • #105
  • Mar 6, 2009 9:09am Mar 6, 2009 9:09am
Well look at that. The Euro is actually up today - so far.
  • #106
  • Mar 6, 2009 10:02am Mar 6, 2009 10:02am
Quoting SunTrader
Well look at that. The Euro is actually up today - so far.
was

closed my short off the NFP and for the weekend.

if not for weekend I would be holding short.
  • #107
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:09am Mar 7, 2009 9:09am
Quoting philmcgrew
The US Dollar is up over 13% since Christmas. While you fundamental guys sit around and tell each other how smart you are the rest of us are trading the charts and making pips. Keep up the good work.
I didn't read that this thread is mainly fundamental, I think this thread is for talking and make some conclusions, without the "gbp/jpy in going to tank if the daily candle crosses ema 50" or some like that, everybody here has their favorite (technical) thread where they can make their pips with their own systems.

Personally, I am very skeptic reading news for trading specially after reading "Master the Market" by Tom Williams, He explains that grate part of the news manipulated in order to confuse the new trader.

so, if some body knows about a good source where the news are not corrupted, please post.
  • #108
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:11am Mar 7, 2009 9:11am
Quoting philmcgrew
The US Dollar is up over 13% since Christmas. While you fundamental guys sit around and tell each other how smart you are the rest of us are trading the charts and making pips. Keep up the good work.
  • #109
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:16am Mar 7, 2009 9:16am
Quoting againgabriel
Personally, I am very skeptic reading news for trading specially after reading "Master the Market" by Tom Williams, He explains that grate part of the news manipulated in order to confuse the new trader.
This is the same media that didn't see a global financial meltdown occuring. Do you really think they are organized enough to collectively manipulate the news? Tom Williams is playing on new trader's fears that everyone is out to get them. The only ones being manipulated here are his readers.
  • #110
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:03am Mar 7, 2009 11:03am
Quoting philmcgrew
This is the same media that didn't see a global financial meltdown occuring.............


Williams likes to use the word syndicate a lot. Thats what the 'media' in years gone used to describe the mafia.

Ohhhh scary, scary.
  • #111
  • Mar 7, 2009 6:32pm Mar 7, 2009 6:32pm
that two last post are information that is new for me, interesting, as a newbie I should take it and confirm, maybe you both are right, thanks.
  • #112
  • Edited 10:40pm Mar 7, 2009 10:27pm | Edited 10:40pm
Weekly chart of the EUR/USD

It's starting to form a double bottom. early to call yet but the signs are emerging that a possible longer rally could be starting to form.

Please note I am not into the business of prediction I try to follow what I see and trade off the confrimation.

still need time for the pattern to form and secondly confirm it's self. I am not calling a new uptrend, more so a possible longer term replacement at the moment.

Cheers,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX EUR_USD (-).png Size: 31 KB
  • #113
  • Mar 7, 2009 10:43pm Mar 7, 2009 10:43pm
You might be right. The weekly candle chart shows a doji which along with double bottom/support zone might be pointing to this area holding.

Time will tell - but doji's mean indecision so it can go either way too.
  • #114
  • Edited 10:36am Mar 8, 2009 12:30am | Edited 10:36am
Hey drt are you around?

Im looking at 2700 as pivot and a break above 2967 changes my weekly downward bias. As last weeks pivot held (2756).
weekly
2967
2700
2432

Although yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly bias is still down, my daily bias is up while above 2614.
sun.daily
2762
2614
2466
  • #115
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:38am Mar 8, 2009 12:38am
to continue on from the weekly chart i posted.........

below is the daily eur/usd chart.

The following are Mclaren principles of pattern of trend. I am a student of MclLarens pattern of trend principals. ( still studying!)

I want to concentrate on the current move down from (dec 23 to now) from the 50% high point of the fist move down.

this is a continuation of the down trend that started out as normal trend with 2-4 bar retraces. the trend then changes to a creeping trend with the retracment high going into the last support low above. this is called a creeping trend.

creeping or slow trends can show a weakening trend, as I think is happening now. the trend has creeped down to zone of the low set in oct08 - nov 08. there was a retrace in the section the range that is more then 12 bars and shows more evidence of a weaking trend.

due to the struggling nature of the price action combined with it sitting on the low really is starting to sugest that accumilation is taking place and a rally is building.

the low has to hold with out a normal trend moving though it. I would like to see a move up with a higher low containing a retracment to make that with 2-4 bars.

time to sit back and wait for the pattern of trend to complete. if it completes the 50% retrace point high is my first target major target.

good trading....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #116
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:51am Mar 8, 2009 12:51am
Certainly appears as you described as last weeks lows held support.
  • #117
  • Mar 8, 2009 1:04am Mar 8, 2009 1:04am
Quoting lilpip
Certainly appears as you described as last weeks lows held support.
the low has not been reached yet,we want to see the low hold as the price may continue down to it. in the current creeping trend. if it capitulates into a new low that can be good or bad but the picture will change then. for now concentrate on the current picture.

cheers
  • #118
  • Mar 8, 2009 4:16pm Mar 8, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting philmcgrew
This is the same media that didn't see a global financial meltdown occuring. Do you really think they are organized enough to collectively manipulate the news? Tom Williams is playing on new trader's fears that everyone is out to get them. The only ones being manipulated here are his readers.

Oh, what the newer retail trader thinks is truthful and "news". Every new trader must go through the fire, especially in regards to what is "truly" moving the markets. There is no wisdom pill; only experience with an open mind. Traders in retail are on the outer fringe of data feeds......with excessive leverage........and whiffs of "news can" affect their decisions....

Even the authors of such books have agendas.......also......be cautious of media blabber; most are only reporters of activity, not interpreters of the activity as they are many times confused with.....as they will lead you to believe. They are trying to make money on market movements without making a trade, but you have to actually pull the trigger to make some money......are you sure you want to have them pull the trigger for you??? Beware of phony targets from someone in a suit on the Tube reporting oversold stochastics and such!

Feel the Force, Luke.....
pipsqueak4x
  • #119
  • Mar 8, 2009 7:25pm Mar 8, 2009 7:25pm
This moring I have started to take longs on the EUR/USd and the AUD/USD.

I have started my tarde with a 5000 with 300 pip stops on each. As the pattern devalops I will be adding more.
  • #120
  • Mar 8, 2009 8:38pm Mar 8, 2009 8:38pm
"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent." ~Edwin Lefevre

I do not see the turn as of yet but I wish you luck.


Quoting >Apocalypto<
This moring I have started to take longs on the EUR/USd and the AUD/USD.

I have started my tarde with a 5000 with 300 pip stops on each. As the pattern devalops I will be adding more.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
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