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simplest strategy for GBP/ JPY

  • #41
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:58am Mar 29, 2007 6:58am
GBP/JPY held up throughout the night. I just closed up three orders worth 155 pips.

I hope others caught the same move.
  • #42
  • Mar 29, 2007 10:49am Mar 29, 2007 10:49am
Quoting wookashc
Nicolas, thanks for posting your system. Which method for calculating 12 SMA do you use (high/low/close/median/etc.)?

All the best
use 12 SMA close
32 SMA high
32 SMA close
32 SMA low

good luck and trade safely
  • #43
  • Mar 29, 2007 11:38am Mar 29, 2007 11:38am
Very interesting ma cross system nicolas nrjk, I know its not your original time-frame but looking at the daily charts, you can see where we just crossed the first sma. Just thought I would alert you guys. Also, I trade off of price action as well, and it is looking rather bullish for the gbp/jpy in the long-term.
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  • #44
  • Mar 29, 2007 11:44am Mar 29, 2007 11:44am
A question-it seems to work even better if you trade as PRICE goes thru the 32's...any opinions?

And staying in a trade until the MACD crosses does seem to really help
  • #45
  • Mar 29, 2007 11:53am Mar 29, 2007 11:53am
This method produced 825 pips in the last two days - and there were more pips than that available. The price action wasn't too extraordinary either.

I'm curious to see how it weathers during more turbulent times. But there's little room to doubt that it's an overall winner.

Nicolas, you've done a great favor for the members of the FF community. I hope they're wise enough to pick up on it.

P.S. I would strongly advise that a good exit strategy be developed. I simply closed out my trades while they were in a good position. You don't want to see a 200 pip gain dwindle back down to 50 - at least I don't.
  • #46
  • Mar 29, 2007 11:58am Mar 29, 2007 11:58am
Sidus -

I see that you're visiting this thread. Best regards, buddy!
  • #47
  • Mar 29, 2007 12:08pm Mar 29, 2007 12:08pm
Quoting brentmack
This method produced 825 pips in the last two days - and there were more pips than that available. The price action wasn't too extraordinary either.

I'm curious to see how it weathers during more turbulent times. But there's little room to doubt that it's an overall winner.

Nicolas, you've done a great favor for the members of the FF community. I hope they're wise enough to pick up on it.

P.S. I would strongly advise that a good exit strategy be developed. I simply closed out my trades while they were in a good position. You don't want to see a 200 pip gain dwindle back down to 50 - at least I don't.
brentmack, was that just with the gbp/jpy or with other pairs?
  • #48
  • Mar 29, 2007 12:56pm Mar 29, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting Chartist
brentmack, was that just with the gbp/jpy or with other pairs?
It was just from trading GBP/JPY.

The only other pair that I've examined is NZD/USD on the 15 and 30 minute charts. Looks like one could "scalp" 20-50 pips per trade off that pair from time to time.
  • #49
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:41pm Mar 29, 2007 2:41pm
So is anyone trading as price goes thru the 32's? I looked back on the charts and that seems to work out.

I'll say this about using the MACD cross to get out and back in to trades-there are times when it works very well-like fron the short signal on March 27. There are other times when it gets u out too early-like on the March 18 signal.

On the March 18 signal-the MACD would have gotten u in and out several times and you wouldn't have made anywhere near the pips available.

On the March 27 signal-it worked very well-saved u a bundle.

I look at it this way-when it gets you out too early-that's just a lost oppurtunity. The thing is-there's always another trade. What it does do-is prevent u from getting killed.

I would guess in the very long run-it's probably a good thing to use. If u just looked at it over a couple of trades-u could get frustrated. But in times of non-trending markets-it could save you a lot.
  • #50
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:33pm Mar 29, 2007 4:33pm
Here is backtest since 2001. Trading 0.1 Lot, start with 50kE.
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  • #51
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:54pm Mar 29, 2007 6:54pm
Quoting lwojtow
Here is backtest since 2001. Trading 0.1 Lot, start with 50kE.
Yep, the method sucks. Don't do it. It's a killer!

While you were looking backward - I was looking forward. And I like what I see.

With a better exit strategy - that equity curve will easily be reversed.
  • #52
  • Mar 29, 2007 7:19pm Mar 29, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
So is anyone trading as price goes thru the 32's?
Hi There NewstraderFX:

Regarding pulling the trigger as the price passes through the MA's... that's not a bad idea. It kinda depends on the trade. On some it's going to get you in there a good 30 pips quicker. On others it looks to be a wash. And on losers, you could probably lose more.

In the long haul - it's probably got a slight advantage. So I'd say to each his own. Life would probably be a little easier to just watch lines passing through lines.

But if you've got a "strong hunch" that it's going to keep moving your way, I say, "Why not go for it?"
  • #53
  • Mar 30, 2007 3:49am Mar 30, 2007 3:49am
Quoting lwojtow
Here is backtest since 2001. Trading 0.1 Lot, start with 50kE.
hey lwojtow,

can you tell us what exactly was it that you were backtesting? was it the original nicolas' 12/32 method or newstradersfx' macd/price action version?

i too think that in order to make decent pips with this method one has to apply some sort of exit rules. i though of exiting in stages, say close the first unit after 80-100 pips into the trade, the second one after 160-200 pips and let the third one run until the sweet or bitter end (til 12 crosses the 32s again), whatever the pip result. this may cut some profits during long trends, but again helps to survive whipsaws, hopefully making one more or less break even during those times. the above numbers are the result of eyeball analysis only - they can be different in reality. i'll try to do a better research when i've more time on my hands - life's too hectic right now.

again, thanks nicolas for showing you ideas it to us. the three 32 SMAs concept is really worth investigating and i probably woudn't look at GBP/JPY and other cross pairs if not your thread (12-14 pip spread on this particular pair with my broker). some of them look much easier to trade than the main pairs - maybe the grail's buried here somewhere?

have a good day everyone
Money is merely a by-product of one's skills as a trader - M. Douglas
  • #54
  • Mar 30, 2007 4:20am Mar 30, 2007 4:20am
Quoting NewstraderFX
A question-it seems to work even better if you trade as PRICE goes thru the 32's...any opinions?

And staying in a trade until the MACD crosses does seem to really help
you can add whatever other indicator that you like but i prefer to keep it simple

you can also enter when the price crosses you'll have tigher stop-loss but if you are in a ranging market you'll loose alot. check in last september october.
if you want to trade when the price action crosses the 32 SMA's check the vegas strategy it will help you alot.
good luck
  • #55
  • Mar 30, 2007 4:27am Mar 30, 2007 4:27am
Quoting brentmack
I'm curious to see how it weathers during more turbulent times. But there's little room to doubt that it's an overall winner.

Nicolas, you've done a great favor for the members of the FF community. I hope they're wise enough to pick up on it.

P.S. I would strongly advise that a good exit strategy be developed. I simply closed out my trades while they were in a good position. You don't want to see a 200 pip gain dwindle back down to 50 - at least I don't.
check for september - october and the beginning of november 2006 it was a hell of turbulence.

i have to say that but sometimes a position will go down about 150 PIPs before it wins so you'll have to put a 200 PIP stop loss. and if you want to add a target point let it be at a minimm of 200 PIP coz you don't want to risk more than you can win in a trade.

you can use fibo numbers for targets as per vegas method. 144 - 233 - 377

if you insist on adding a SL and a TP these can be an idea you can adopt but it is better to close and reverse with the trend change.


i'll see the past result and try to developp a good exit strategy for target points. it will take a while before i post them here so be patient.
  • #56
  • Mar 30, 2007 5:06am Mar 30, 2007 5:06am
hey guys,
i am creating a team to monitor the GBP/JPY around the clock. if you are interested send me a PM. with your name e-mail and the time zome in witch you live. and from what time to what time you are available to monitor the pair.
  • #57
  • Mar 30, 2007 6:46am Mar 30, 2007 6:46am
Quoting nicolas_nrjk
hey guys,
i am creating a team to monitor the GBP/JPY around the clock. if you are interested send me a PM. with your name e-mail and the time zome in witch you live. and from what time to what time you are available to monitor the pair.
Why not an EA?
  • #58
  • Mar 30, 2007 8:06am Mar 30, 2007 8:06am
Quoting nicolas_nrjk
check for september - october and the beginning of november 2006 it was a hell of turbulence.

i have to say that but sometimes a position will go down about 150 PIPs before it wins so you'll have to put a 200 PIP stop loss. and if you want to add a target point let it be at a minimm of 200 PIP coz you don't want to risk more than you can win in a trade.

you can use fibo numbers for targets as per vegas method. 144 - 233 - 377

if you insist on adding a SL and a TP these can be an idea you can adopt but it is better to close and reverse with the trend change.


i'll see the past result and try to developp a good exit strategy for target points. it will take a while before i post them here so be patient.
Nicolas and Brent,

After some thought, I came up with what I think may be a good system to use with yours. Call it an "Insurance Position", which you can open apart from the other 3 positions as the 12 crosses the 32's, and you are incorporating price action to help with whipsaws and to also get you in early, but with high probability. Check out the chart.
Attached Image
  • #59
  • Mar 30, 2007 8:12am Mar 30, 2007 8:12am
Quoting nicolas_nrjk
check for september - october and the beginning of november 2006 it was a hell of turbulence.
Check out the following chart. I don't want to beat a dead horse, but you're right to think that an inherent problem with ma cross systems appears during choppy times, but it can be countered with an additional price action crossing the 32's position.
Attached Image
  • #60
  • Mar 30, 2007 11:19am Mar 30, 2007 11:19am
My trade situation is :
Entered long yesterday 3 lots - closed already 2 on opposite cross of the 32 ema, at 49 and 50 pips profit. (I entered around 230.68). Opened a short earlier at a first opposite cross, with a loss of 50 pips, and now opened a second short lot, at 231.21.

Did u guys get the same sell signals as me? or am I wrong...
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