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Don't get sucked in by dollar strength

  • #81
  • Feb 28, 2009 9:46pm Feb 28, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting Speculator


Thats a good point, but only for someone that is not paying attention to all factors. The money didn't went to the Japanese people, BUT, what about the carry trades?

Oh yes, The money didn't flow around Japan, but it didn't stoped there. The world took it as a loan and now Japan is the biggest creditor in the world, creating as you know Stock Market and Currency bubbles in many countries.

So, sits there? Right..
But there was only a local Japanese credit crush (not global like now) and only Japanese banks were affected. I don't have to borrow from Japanese banks to get .5% on the Yen, you forget that. Now we have the Japanese situation with banks ALL OVER THE WORLD.
  • #82
  • Feb 28, 2009 10:04pm Feb 28, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting Speculator
I didn't said anything about "now". I don't know whats the exact point of that "foreseeable future", but let me explain again.

The run to safety caused many people to return to bonds, and when you hold a treasury bond, you Hope that the rate of the bond pays you above the rate of inflation until the date of maturity.

When foreigners buy bonds they prop up the dollar, and even in this past years that is well known that many countries were buying US bonds and loaning 2 billion per day to america. ... even converting so much money to...
U an economist?

You don't talk like a trader.

Just curious.

m
  • #83
  • Edited Mar 1, 2009 7:23am Feb 28, 2009 11:32pm | Edited Mar 1, 2009 7:23am
e/u yearly
6050
3937
1824
From what I hear parity is wanted, however
1.1824 area is of intrest to me as a possible move back up,

this week Im looking at 1.2760 as trend guide
3050
2760
2470
  • #84
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:33am Mar 1, 2009 11:33am
I gave an Economics lesson to a guy thats claims credit don't inflate things like "normal" money.

I taught him that the reason the system worked in the beginning was because Gold would made possible to pay interest without taking money from someone else, contrary to what happens now.

I also explained that if the dollar rose for years like he claims it should, that would not only be against all economic laws but also against all psycological laws as the market would have to sustain years of bad economic news.

I even explained carefully that a bubble might burst because of two different factors. It can burst because there is no money left to continue to buy, or, because the sharpness in the chart makes a lot of people create a panic momentum that is unstoppable.

What do i get in return? My posts deleted, lol.

Nice one FF. I see that having many vouchs is the way to get protection.


Acumen

They deleted my question, but i ask you again.

How should a trader talk? Can't an economist be a trader or investor? rotfl..
  • #85
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:39am Mar 1, 2009 11:39am
Quoting Speculator
When people come to that conclusion, they will get out, and the dollar gets hurt.
When, when, when? What does it take, for god's sake, to make people come to some different conclusion??

Money moves one way or another for various reasons.

It is not when people come to any conclusion but when the factors that effect money flows change that matter. And I don't see any dramatic change in these factors any time soon.

We are all in a big mess that we, the USA, led the world into and as usual are leading the world out of.
  • #86
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:44am Mar 1, 2009 11:44am
Ususally when a 'lesson' gets to the 'bickering point the post is moved to the 'recycle bin'. Check there for your posts. Even if you have 10+ vouches

Quoting Speculator

What do i get in return? My posts deleted, lol.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #87
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:54am Mar 1, 2009 11:54am
Quoting Speculator
Can't an economist be a trader or investor? rotfl..
In a word: NO.
  • #88
  • Edited 12:48pm Mar 1, 2009 12:19pm | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting mrgreen
Ususally when a 'lesson' gets to the 'bickering point the post is moved to the 'recycle bin'.
He started to say that i talk with my ass lol. I din't said anything not even close..

Quoting SunTrader
When, when, when?
And I don't see any dramatic change in these factors any time soon.
We are all in a big mess that we, the USA, led the world into and as usual are leading the world out of.
You started very good, but its unfortunate that you also can't control some of your patriotism.

Its very evident that you almost explode in rage when someone says something about the US. And then you turn it personal... Thats really sad man.

What you do not understand is that, what lead america out of previous problems was Capitalism and a powerful manufacturing. That freedom of mind to create new ideas and new business.

Don't get me wrong... anyone that has some inteligence is able to understand that the freedom of mind is a key to sucess, because it makes the people try hard to achieve their dream with efforts. It was great that anyone with a good ideia was able to get rich or some athlete with a gift was able to choose any sport, and be the best. No question about it, if you were good, america would take you to the top.

Theres a problem. Those days are over... Socialism has arrived. Socialism is when you take from the people that created ideas and give it to people that does not want to work and are dumb. As soon as you realize this, the better for you. The problem of the world is that we still watch your movies and many people think that America is actually like in the movies. That state of mind will end.

You can't lead, because you are broke! Can you understand this? You owe more than you have! Broke is the word..
You all leading, but leading us to a black hole of debt and misery. Thanks a lot.

Quoting SunTrader
In a word: NO.
Look Pal.

Imagine that companies and governments run the countries like you seem to advocate.

"Wait for the mess, don't change path, and then solve it."

Don't you realize that you are once again being another guy in the crowd saying that everything is as great as it ever been?

Don't you get that, for years and years, many people inside this bankrupt banks were advising their superiors about this problems and they would get ignored and some of them fired??

Is it so dificult to understand that, the fact that there is no iminent change is the most ridiculous excuse to avoid correcting a problem that will lead to catastrophe.


And by the Way... Its now very clear that you know very few about great investors.

Let me give you another lesson.


Warren Buffet (Fundamentals) - 60 BILLIONS

Jim Rogers (Fundamentals) - 4200% in Ten Years


Wake up SunTrader. Learn something and then start again. Are you sure you are keeping up with the real world?
  • #89
  • Mar 1, 2009 12:44pm Mar 1, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting Speculator
You started very good, but its unfortunate that you also can't control some of your patriotism.

Its very evident that you almost explode in rage when someone says something about the US. And then you turn it personal... Thats really sad man.

What you do not understand is that, what lead america out of the problems was Capitalism. That freedom of mind to create new ideas and new business.

Don't get me wrong... anyone that has some inteligence is able to understand that the freedom of mind is a key to sucess, because it makes the people try...
I won't even bother to respond point by point except to say firstly, show me where I said any of this.

And secondly I ask again what is going to CHANGE from what has gone on in the past up to this point. "We are going to print a lot dollars". So what else is freakin new with this country. Again what is going to change?
  • #90
  • Edited 2:35pm Mar 1, 2009 2:08pm | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
I won't even bother to respond point by point except to say firstly, show me where I said any of this.
Ok...

First, i already told you 1 thousand times that i DO trade with the sentiment i see in charts, and i trade it for sometime.

What this means is that i already had my share of tough trading lessons, that are Years in the past, so i learned a long time ago what errors i should not make again.

Nonetheless, you keep talking like i was about to have troubles because You think i trade the news.

And you actually said that since i am interested in the long term economics and eficiency, that i should get out, because traders should be guys with no knowledge whatsoever.

Since i didn't gave you any reason to criticize with emptiness my methods, i assume that you do have problems when someone talks about the likely painful outcome from the actual policies, and then you discount that anger on me.

The best investors of all time looked to fundamentals, and actually ALL business man that sell products consider fundamentals when they do some decisions. Ofcourse that decisions will not pay out right there, but they aim for a sustainable future.

In fact, the actual number of SUCESSFUL investors and business man that only looked for the chart, are very small. Almost microscopic, in the entire economy.

My guess is that you actually tried to trade the news in the past, but what you didn't realized yet is that news are not supposed to be traded with leverage in hour charts.


Quoting SunTrader
And secondly I ask again what is going to CHANGE from what has gone on in the past up to this point. "We are going to print a lot dollars". So what else is freakin new with this country. Again what is going to change?
Again... lets hope you finally get this.

Imagine 3 guys in a room. They are all friends...

One guy loans money to another and this guy uses the money in a way that is very dificult to pay it back, as he use it to buy foreign products.

The third guy in the room is just a guy who likes to bet on things.

The first guy keeps loaning money to the other because they are friends and he expects to be payed sometime, as he trusts his friend.

The third guy just bets that eventually this friendship will end.

He DOES NOT bet everyday, but he simply knows that eventually the first guy will realize that he is being conned and in the end, the second guy not only will lose his friend, but he will also lose the ability to consume as he was doing before.







Here is the point where we collide. And lets make it clear.


You, SunTrader, believe that the second guy should continue to borrow money from his friend.

And why is that?

-Because you assume that, since the first guy is not complaining, he probably never will.
If the flow of money is not changing is because you consider that the first guy likes the other so much that it will never stop to lend.



In the other hand, i believe that human nature does not work that way. Persons and even friends, can hide their anger to be nice, until its impossible to hold it anymore.




In my humble view, i think that despite nothing is happening, this problem should be corrected to assure that it will not bring damage.

This is called Economics: Its about eficiency, dealing with the resources.

Its not a matter of trade, its a matter of long term health, and if the Banks would follow that way of thinking, they would not be BANKRUPT.


Its irrelevant that you don't see it coming just because nothing changed.... IT must be corrected before the problems appear.


What is going to change? America will have a much lower standard of living, when the foreign credit flow ends, which will compensate a decade living above the sustainable.

Thats it. Either Wages rise less than inflation. Or Wages drop more than deflation. Its irrelevant.

The Real Wage will fall.

If the Market was allowed to correct things... it would be probably the second option. But since the Money is not contracting, i will be the first option.
Wages rise less than inflation for years.

The only way for wages to keep up at the same pace of inflation, is to have even more natural unemployment.

This is the unfortunate consequences of people that IGNORES the problems because they think everything is going normal. Guys like you, that actualy criticize people that have the goodwill to try to figure out the future problems coming.
  • #91
  • Edited 10:00pm Mar 1, 2009 3:22pm | Edited 10:00pm
So to sum it all up your point is all this can't keep going on. People will finally get wise to it and the dollar will lose value because it has to. Well if you can make money with those beliefs then good for you.

In the meantime I will keep trading what I see and not what I think will or should happen.

Good trading.
  • #92
  • Mar 2, 2009 7:18am Mar 2, 2009 7:18am
Love your comments, Speculator
  • #93
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:28am Mar 2, 2009 9:28am
I think this is the right thread to post this link, please I would like to know what you guys think about that, there are two documentary movies, explaining a lot about the elite's plan.

You can watch it while looking looking at your charts.

Specially to those experienced traders, please tell what do you think after looking at the movies.

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

Gabriel
  • #94
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:56am Mar 2, 2009 9:56am
Quoting againgabriel
I think this is the right thread to post this link, please I would like to know what you guys think about that, there are two documentary movies, explaining a lot about the elite's plan.

You can watch it while looking looking at your charts.

Specially to those experienced traders, please tell what do you think after looking at the movies.

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

Gabriel
Seen it a year or more ago. Nothing to me.
  • #95
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:43pm Mar 2, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting againgabriel
I think this is the right thread to post this link, please I would like to know what you guys think about that, there are two documentary movies, explaining a lot about the elite's plan.

You can watch it while looking looking at your charts.

Specially to those experienced traders, please tell what do you think after looking at the movies.

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

Gabriel
Zeitgeist is on par with the 9/11 Truther movement (the US gov't was behind 9/11 is their belief), and has been thoroughly debunked.

It is pure conspiracy theory lunacy and you would do well to google for information about why these movies are so terrible and wrong, otherwise you may walk away with some very bad ideas.
  • #96
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:45pm Mar 4, 2009 4:45pm
Thanks for the answers, and it is interesting that you weren't influenced by this information, but the 9/11 conspiracy (true or not)is not the only point, the second movie, "zeitgeist addenum" talks about the method that the US colonize 3rd world countries, and, as Argentinian, I can say that the US was behind the 1976 regimen where 30.000 civilians where murderer(mainly by torture) and another number like that of people were tortured, just because they thought that there were too many "che guevara mentalities".

And, coming back to the forex stuff, those movies are saying that the financial crisis are artificially provoked mainly by the U.S. government, and the dollar is being manipulated as well like everything else.

Or the Amero rumor, it is true? the dollar is dummed?

Lets think about all those people in America that loosed his house becuase they couldn't pay the credit(it doesn't has to be only in america, it is happening worldwide rigth now)...where do you think what happen with those loosed houses? are going back to the bankers in a very cheaper price, in order to sell it again, bought by another middle class civilian that takes a credit from the same banker. No wonder that bankers like what is going on.

I think that as we (the forex traders) are aware of what all that financial manipulation means, we can take a lot of advantage of the situation.

Answers are welcome.
  • #97
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:26pm Mar 4, 2009 9:26pm
Do you mean - dollar is doomed? Maybe, who knows.

I know one thing. I don't have a clue about Argentina and you don't know have a clue about the U.S.

Houses that people lied on mortgage applications are going back to the banks or the federal government and then they are having to resell them at way below their value (previous, present and especially future value). Speculator, the smart ones, once again will be the one to take the risk and the one to benefit. Just like trading. You don't have a problem with that now do you? If you do then why are you trading????
  • #98
  • Mar 5, 2009 11:32am Mar 5, 2009 11:32am
Doomed, that is the word, not "dummed" (lol).

I have to confess that I didn't know that thing about the houses problem, and that means that don't have a clue what is going on inside the U.S...so that item is clear, thanks.Now I know it.

But maybe I do know a little (not enough) of what the U.S. does outside of its country. The second movie, "addenum", talks about that. And it is not the only source.

I don't have a problem to benefit from financial crisis by trading forex if I knew how, that is why I am asking about all those things.

I am glad that I found a person willing to answer some fundamental questions, specially if you have some experience.

A few weeks ago I found this article, I really want to know what do you think about that, and if it means that the dollar is going to go down.

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/6581
  • #99
  • Mar 5, 2009 7:04pm Mar 5, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting againgabriel
Doomed, that is the word, not "dummed" (lol).

I have to confess that I didn't know that thing about the houses problem, .............
I don't claim to know much about fundies either. The article in the link is not saying anything that many other media outlets/blogs/etc are not also saying.

But it is for longterm consideration only. They may/may not be right.

I use my time and energy looking at what is happening today and the foreseeable future. Others can prognosticate about next year and thereafter.
  • #100
  • Mar 5, 2009 7:40pm Mar 5, 2009 7:40pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I am positioning for the dollar to begin weakening again. Sure it is not what you are reading on the right side of the board here with all the stories but that is exactly the point. Ask yourself a simple question, "Why am I buying the dollar?" It has been a story of..."Well armageddon and the dollar is the best of the worst"

I think the dollar play is wearing very thin personally. Look at a long term chart and you will see a secular downtrend in the dollar, no one can argue this. We are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. Consider...
something to think about,the dollar will be the first to get strong,because when it decline everbody else went down behind it
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