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Silent Service Method

  • #221
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:00pm Mar 4, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting damonl
All these moves were predictable and worth a lot of pips today. Just need to head down to the lower tf's and wait for a break in the other direction.

A very good day indeed...

eurusd long at the bottom
Audusd long at the bottom
usdcad short at the top
gbpjpy long of support
usdjpy long of support

How good would this have been for you had you got them? A 1% risk would have seen near 20% profit today from all trades

Happy pippin'

P.S. clock...how did your silver trade go? I'm long longterm in that bad boy. Looking to casher all in a year...

Silver is just sitting there, it's ok though....I plan on it being a little more long term
  • #222
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:15pm Mar 4, 2009 5:15pm
usdcad and eurusd was a lock of the week... i started at daily to look for a pin bar or something then gradually moved down to 5mins chart to get entry....

now i need to work out a exit level, which is always hard... i typically will have lots in 2 ie 0.02 or 0.2 etc and offload half at a nominal level say 90pips... then let the rest just run till i see it bouncing off major support/resistance (stop loss brought to break even of course)
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #223
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:15pm Mar 4, 2009 5:15pm
A potential stock trade. Don't fret it though....this stuff works in every market I have tried it on. It's based on crowd psychology more than anything.

PETM - That's PetsMart, a specialty shop in the States that sells pet-related foods and toys, etc.

This one has a daily pinbar sitting at a S/R zone that is nice. I am waiting to see if this one breaks long, if so....I am in. The blue box is a target, but to be honest, I may not take profits there. We will see. If we get there, I will be at break-even none the less.
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  • #224
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:50pm Mar 4, 2009 5:50pm
Try setting your t/p in a trade like that 5x your s/l. Even GbpJpy today had no more than a 50 pip s/l and i think it was just over 40 pips. I think that trading the daily charts, the 5M is too small to go down to. try either the 15M or 30M and look at trailing your stop with some sort of fractal calculation.

Sometimes gets you out early, other days lets it run clear to the t/p targets like today..... You can always re-enter if you get stopped out by a ranging asian market.

Hope this is helpful....

Quoting whitegoodman
usdcad and eurusd was a lock of the week... i started at daily to look for a pin bar or something then gradually moved down to 5mins chart to get entry....

now i need to work out a exit level, which is always hard... i typically will have lots in 2 ie 0.02 or 0.2 etc and offload half at a nominal level say 90pips... then let the rest just run till i see it bouncing off major support/resistance (stop loss brought to break even of course)
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #225
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:31pm Mar 4, 2009 6:31pm
Hi Clockwork,
First of all, thanks for taking your time teaching us your strategies.
I haven't fully read your thread yet, will do that asap. However, while I was reading your posts, like many others I popped up a chart (in my case it was a gold chart) and started drawing your S/R zones. While I was doing that, I came up with extremely basic trading rules (If price was in the zone, buy when 4h closes above, sell when 4h closes below. SL is the center of the zone also known as the line, SL becomes the breakeven level once it hits a price a certain level. TP is the beginning of the next zone.)

I manually tested it on 1 year of historical data, made 110 trades, and made a raw profit of $800 (non leveraged)... quite a lot imo. The biggest loss was 4 trades in a row in a market that kept trading just outside the boundaries of the zone, triggering trades and stop losses.

This got me excited so I'll definately read the rest of your thread first thing tomorrow!
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #226
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:53am Mar 5, 2009 2:53am
Quoting Noloqy
Hi Clockwork,

I manually tested it on 1 year of historical data, made 110 trades, and made a raw profit of $800 (non leveraged)... quite a lot imo.
$800 on 110 trades? Am i missing something or were you trading miniscule lots?


But other than that, I think you on to something ... please lets us or me at least, know where you take this.

Good luck
  • #227
  • Mar 5, 2009 4:24am Mar 5, 2009 4:24am
Quoting BWise
$800 on 110 trades? Am i missing something or were you trading miniscule lots?


But other than that, I think you on to something ... please lets us or me at least, know where you take this.

Good luck
Hehe, I didn't trade any lots. If you trade 1 ordinary lot, a $1 move of gold equals $100 in profit/loss. This means that if I actually did trade with 1 lot all the time, profits could have been 800*100=$80,000 (spreads not accounted for). You do need a decent account size to be able to eat the losses when trading those volumes though. It was tested on 16 months by the way, somewhat longer than the year I mentioned earlier

BWise, draw some good zones in a chart. Then notice that as a candle closes below or above the zone, it tends to go all the way to the next zone. At least that happened on my chart 64 out of the 110 trades, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 1/4.

I believe that prices going from one area into another is what Clockwork is heading towards, though I don't think I heard him explicitly say it yet. I also think that Clockwork is planning to teach us ways to filter out some of the losing trades, and how to set more effective SL and TP levels. This is one of the reasons why I won't post the (very basic) rules and zones I used yet: I first want to refine them according to what we learn from Clockwork. I do see the potential of the Silent Service Method and am hooked to this thread.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #228
  • Mar 5, 2009 10:06am Mar 5, 2009 10:06am
Quoting Noloqy
I believe that prices going from one area into another is what Clockwork is heading towards, though I don't think I heard him explicitly say it yet. I also think that Clockwork is planning to teach us ways to filter out some of the losing trades, and how to set more effective SL and TP levels. This is one of the reasons why I won't post the (very basic) rules and zones I used yet: I first want to refine them according to what we learn from Clockwork. I do see the potential of the Silent Service Method and am hooked to this thread.

This is exactly where I am heading to. I am going to post some thing in the next 24 hours that will start to piece some of this all together.

CW
  • #229
  • Edited 1:40pm Mar 5, 2009 1:11pm | Edited 1:40pm
Clockwork,

Just curious as to how you handle the following situation. When you have a PB, DBHLC/DBLHC or BUOB/BEOB if the next bar does not trigger your entry (eg. on a bullish PB the high of the PB is not taken out by the next bar or on a BUOB its high is not broken by next bar) is the signal no longer valid or do you still take the signal to go long on the following bar (the second bar after the PB or BUOB)?
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #230
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:39pm Mar 5, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting Santana55
Clockwork,

Just curious as to how you handle the following situation. When you have a PB, DBHLC/DBLHC or BUOB/BEOB if the next bar does not trigger your entry (eg. on a bullish PB the high of the PB is not taken out by the next bar or on a BUOB its high is not broken by next bar) is the signal no longer valid or do you still take the signal to go long on the following bar (the second bar after the PB or BUOB)?
It depends on the s/r area. If it's a major one, like 1.30 on USDCAD, I am fine with it taking a bar or two to trigger. If it is just an "everyday" s/r area.....I only give it one bar to trigger.

CW
  • #231
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:56pm Mar 5, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
It depends on the s/r area. If it's a major one, like 1.30 on USDCAD, I am fine with it taking a bar or two to trigger. If it is just an "everyday" s/r area.....I only give it one bar to trigger.

CW

So when you say "major s/r area" would any level drawn off a weekly count or only hisotical price levels (like 100.00 on yen, etc.)?

Thanks again for this great thread!
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #232
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:04pm Mar 5, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting Santana55
So when you say "major s/r area" would any level drawn off a weekly count or only hisotical price levels (like 100.00 on yen, etc.)?

Thanks again for this great thread!
Its a place that you know when you see. Look at 1.30 on USDCAD, it should be obvious.
  • #233
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:15pm Mar 5, 2009 3:15pm
Does the prevailing trend on the Weekly dictate how your going to trade off S & R levels?

For instance we are in an uptrend on USD/CAD as it approached the the 1.2700 - 1.3000 resistance zone. Would you have play the bounce off the 1.2960 on Tuesday to the downside, or are you only looking to play support levels, since we are in a uptrend.

The bounce off the 1.2960 level down to the 1.2725 level would have been a nice countertrend trade.

I guess the gist of what I want to know is, how important is the prevailing trend to you when considering potential trade setups?

... This is as meaningful a thread as you'll find on FF ... keep it coming ...

BWise
  • #234
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:30pm Mar 5, 2009 3:30pm
Every trade I take is done with this first step....I prefer the 4 hour time frame to be honest. However, I will trade most time frames if they line up with my weekly lines. (95% are either 4 hour or daily though.)

When I set up my charts on Sunday night, I plot out my weekly lines as you see in all my charts. After that, I wait. Nothing more than that....I check the charts once over while drawing them out, and make a mental list of possible trades.

So on Sunday night I might see that USD/CAD and EUR/JPY are near some weekly lines. I then proceed to check them every 4 hours or so. I don't base my life on this, just know to look at them. I check all pairs of course, but I pay particular attention to those two pairs. Sooner or later during the week - I normally get some kind of signal.

You see that I plotted my weekly lines, and then posted two more charts on the daily and 4 hour time frames. This is the critical first step. I want you to know that I pulled this chart up completely on the fly. This stuff is easy if you do that Support and Resistance practice I told you to do....you are doing that, right?

CW
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  • #235
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:31pm Mar 5, 2009 3:31pm
Give me a few posts and I will get to this, I promise....this ties in pretty tight with my exit theory actually.

Quoting BWise
Does the prevailing trend on the Weekly dictate how your going to trade off S & R levels?

For instance we are in an uptrend on USD/CAD as it approached the the 1.2700 - 1.3000 resistance zone....
  • #236
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:47pm Mar 5, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
This stuff is easy if you do that Support and Resistance practice I told you to do....you are doing that, right?

CW

Yes I've done the S&R practice. I like to refer to it as putting on your bifocals, because it makes the charts that much easier to analyse and comprehend.

Anyways, i changed my screen setup last night from 3 charts (Weekly, Daily, 4HR) to just 2 (Daily and 4HR). Not to worry, I havent disregarded the weekly S&R lines.

I pull up the Weekly chart, draw my lines, and then scale that chart down to the Daily, with the 4HR beside it. It just works for me, with less clutter on the screen.

Anyways, im defienetly waiting to see where your taking this.

... BWise ...
  • #237
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:48pm Mar 5, 2009 3:48pm
This is why there were three entries on the above 4 hour GBP/JPY chart. I want you to think about the "2 bar pins...."

CW
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  • #238
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:49pm Mar 5, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting BWise
Yes I've done the S&R practice....
I should say here that I don't leave the weekly up either....I do it exactly the same.....I draw the weekly lines and leave then on the screen....and flip between 4 hour and daily. I only adjust the charts to daily....well.....at the end of the day for 5 minutes or so to check the daily bar.
  • #239
  • Edited 4:44pm Mar 5, 2009 4:00pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
I should say here that I don't leave the weekly up either....I do it exactly the same.....I draw the weekly lines and leave then on the screen....and flip between 4 hour and daily. I only adjust the charts to daily....well.....at the end of the day for 5 minutes or so to check the daily bar.

Great minds think alike, isnt that how the saying goes? ... Nah, who am i kidding im not quite there yet; im getting warmer but havent reached my destination quite yet.

Ok on the 4HR chart posted above, i geuss entry would have been on the other side of the pin bars in each case, but what if there wasn't such an easy pattern to recognized at those levels, what other patterns or setups should we be anticipating?

Stops? Trailing Stops? Scaling in positions? Thats where my mind is leading me, if you could tie these into you future posts, i'd appreciate it.

No trades, no money made, but today's been good. Knowledge is key!

You the man CW, you the man!


... BWise ...
  • #240
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:41pm Mar 5, 2009 5:41pm
Trade from last night. Weekly s/r line. Price retested on 4h and formed a 2 bar pin bar. Now all I need is the exit. If the current bar forms as a pin I'll be putting the stop above that.

Hope you don't mind the charts Clockwork

Edit: Forgot to mention, divergence on MACD on 4h as well.
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