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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #164,101
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:55am Mar 5, 2009 8:55am
ukdaytrader,
if i may....
there are several indicators that show bearish divergence on daily, some also on H4.
double top seem to have formed around 141.50-70 area. we also have touched that area 4x (Jan7, feb25, 26, & today) & failed to break it. it seems to be the make-or-break point of gj.
other currency pairs are near/have similar situations (some pairs are near/on turning points as well)

i think this is part/related to quecee5's analysis, rendering him to come up w/ certain trades... i can't comment about EW, though...

Let's also remember that quecee5 is a swing trader, so he has a long-term view of the markets.
  • #164,102
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:03am Mar 5, 2009 9:03am
Quoting OrionsWay
yes sir 900 + on the table me thinks
You rekon the gj is gonna drop 900 pips?
Probability Professor
  • #164,103
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:06am Mar 5, 2009 9:06am
Quoting pipmyride
ok wheres mal for some range analysis

139 to daily pivot 139.62 .......
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #164,104
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:08am Mar 5, 2009 9:08am
Quoting Galation
You rekon the gj is gonna drop 900 pips?

i think we test 31.50 area +- a handle for a swing,
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #164,105
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:10am Mar 5, 2009 9:10am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Not sure where you get this analysis from? Indeed the 4hr Gann looks set to cross, but that can partly be attributed to today's news from the UK. It's by no means certain it will. As for the Daily, does not look set to roll over. In fact, it still looks bullish medium term.

If I was trading purely on whether a pair was rolling over, I would argue that looking at the Weekly, we're massively bullish.

Or are you looking at projections based on something like EW?
agree with that baby......it just does not look set to roll over...that's not to say 137.40 area is not a possibility but rollover....naaaaa......
  • #164,106
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:10am Mar 5, 2009 9:10am
Tataocb,
E-Mini S&P 500 (ES)
E-Mini S&P Midcap 400 (EW)
Mini-Sized Dow (YM)

stocks are correlated w/ gj & other jpy crosses (other currency pair for that matter) as stock investing/trading is funded not just in $, but in other currencies as well (gbp, jpy, eur, aud, etc). volatility in the stock markets may cause volatility in currencies, sometimes vice versa.

stocks, commodities, futures, etc are correlated/inter-related with currencies.


w/ regards to your "stop loss to BE" question --- well, it depends on these factors:
your risk profile, personality & goals. also depends on the currency pair u are trading. try different values (in your example +15, try +20 or more) &pick what suits you..
Alternatively, u should be concerned more of placing stops at/above/beyond certain support or resistance levels instead of basing your stops on certain $ or pip values. This way, u will reduce the chances of getting whipsawed, or having your stop hit only for price to reverse in favor of your just-stopped-out trade....
Good luck & never stop learning!!!
  • #164,107
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:13am Mar 5, 2009 9:13am
Quote
i think we test 31.50 area +- a handle for a swing,

131.50
  • #164,108
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:18am Mar 5, 2009 9:18am
if 150-160 look far-fetched......
how about 129 & towards new lows?
  • #164,109
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:23am Mar 5, 2009 9:23am
I am long on GBP/JPY.
  • #164,110
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:24am Mar 5, 2009 9:24am
Quoting supremeChaos
if 150-160 look far-fetched......
how about 129 & towards new lows?
This is part of the problem with this thread; you're posting your own obvious bias, (as are others), but a case for more up can also be argued. What happened to trade what you see? Gann + QQE is not bearish just yet and that's what this thread's about yes?

Posts which predict new lows and the like are not helpful to the newbies here, nor can they be said with any degree of certainty.

Not getting at you, just trying to maintain some balance.
  • #164,111
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:25am Mar 5, 2009 9:25am
Quoting NoTlntWitch
I am long on GBP/JPY.
but prolly not anymore
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #164,112
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:25am Mar 5, 2009 9:25am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Not sure where you get this analysis from? Indeed the 4hr Gann looks set to cross, but that can partly be attributed to today's news from the UK. It's by no means certain it will. As for the Daily, does not look set to roll over. In fact, it still looks bullish medium term.

If I was trading purely on whether a pair was rolling over, I would argue that looking at the Weekly, we're massively bullish.

Or are you looking at projections based on something like EW?
with all do respect go back and look at my post/charts from last week predicting that price would fall once the upmove was exhausted. I ask the question last week was anyone concerned about the double top at 141.70 area and a few like orion/piter and a few others responded. . .

I posted charts last week and all this week showing how bearish the daily was but the only concern I had was that the 4hr chart was showing signs of an up move so it was expected to see price go up. . .

I was short on the 1st run-up to 141.70, shorted at 141.34 all the way down to 137 and change. . . when I saw the 4hr chart I posted that I was taking profit at that price point b/c's I didn't like the PA. . . POSTED THAT AS WELL!

However, I was still short bias based on what "I WAS SEEING" on my charts so I went short again at 140.50'ish yesterday and added to my position on the run-up b/c's nothing had changed with what I was seeing (bearish on all TF's from 15 min to daily) posted that as well! I said yesterday that I was expecting to see price at 139.20/138.30/40. . . and wholla here we are!

Took profit on the run down and guess what from my charts nothing has changed that's why I entered short again on the run-up and currently short at 140.18. . .

Gotta to be able to see the move before it happens AND HAVE PATIENCE TO STICK WITH THE TRADE!

RINSE AND REPEAT OFTEN!
  • #164,113
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:28am Mar 5, 2009 9:28am
Quoting ukdaytrader
This is part of the problem with this thread; you're posting your own obvious bias, (as are others), but a case for more up can also be argued. What happened to trade what you see? Gann + QQE is not bearish just yet and that's what this thread's about yes?

Posts which predict new lows and the like are not helpful to the newbies here, nor can they be said with any degree of certainty.

Not getting at you, just trying to maintain some balance.
gann bearish 15 min to 60 min chart , 4 hour we are trying breaking it , 136.20 seems good target , daily gann

the range i have been talking about is holding 141.50 to 135.5 ..... jut trade that .... seems to simple ?

the spreads being high is due to a bond downgrade , I think jp Morgan
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #164,114
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:29am Mar 5, 2009 9:29am
Quoting supremeChaos
if 150-160 look far-fetched......
how about 129 & towards new lows?
atm the moment am waiting H4 to be cross below QQE 50 line and may possible D1 to be cross ~ 136 area..

However, H1 still strong support @138.50...below this then may seen 136.50 back and D1 may cross below gann and may seen 134-127-then maybe new low...am maybe wrong..but Q may help to advice us
  • #164,115
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:34am Mar 5, 2009 9:34am
played the range for 2 trades 139.50 to 138.50 ..... do not love way spreads are all over place and market very jittery on GJ

newbies .. this market is very jittery right now ..... with 60 pip swings in a 3 min candle .. best to take day off than get whipsawed to death , or if swing trading try and wait for a good entry , stops may have to be a little larger than normal
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #164,116
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:35am Mar 5, 2009 9:35am
Quoting quecee5
with all do respect go back and look at my post/charts from last week predicting that price would fall once the upmove was exhausted. I ask the question last week was anyone concerned about the double top at 141.70 area and a few like orion/piter and a few others responded. . .


RINSE AND REPEAT OFTEN!
I have a problem, ... Overdose ... and I do often,

  • #164,117
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:38am Mar 5, 2009 9:38am
Quoting quecee5
it took a while but patience paid off. . . re-entered short at 140.19 - 4hr looks to have more room to move down and that daily should rollover sooner rather than later. . .=
way more....
  • #164,118
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:38am Mar 5, 2009 9:38am
Dare not question Q's analysis please. He always backs up his analysis with a chart. Its up to you on how you want to interpret it. If you think there is more up move please post a chart and backup it up with an analysis
  • #164,119
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:38am Mar 5, 2009 9:38am
Here is a 4hr chart. . . there is downward pressure south that's in progress. I expect it to break lower sooner than later to the bottom trend line (red line) @ 136.xx once we get pass the 50 ema. . .

stay tuned!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #164,120
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:43am Mar 5, 2009 9:43am
here is a daily chart which looks exhausted. . . we have to move lower before price can continue upward if that's its mission. . .

weekly chart could be bullish but could take weeks if not months to play out.

I'm a swing trader so I try to predict the move as close to the top as possible so I tend to sell when price is increasing near the top based on s/r and the 1hr/4hr and daily chart!

I said it last week once 1hr/4hr and daily were all lined up that we would see increase pressure to the downside. . .

that's called trading with thrend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 32 KB
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