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Lusan Journal II

  • #61
  • Mar 1, 2009 7:28pm Mar 1, 2009 7:28pm
Back to Albany after my trip to New York and a happy meeting with v.

A thought came up:
Open any 4H chart, and ask
'Would I buy or sell this chart NOW?
If so, just go ahead and do it.
If in doubt, wait and ask that question again tomorrow.
So I did and I just sold E/U and E/Y.

Likewise another way to exit these trades might be
asking the same question and acting accordingly.
I could ask this question anytime and choose to either stay or exit a trade.
What a way to do it.
Totally discretionary.

Interesting, right?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #62
  • Mar 1, 2009 8:17pm Mar 1, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting luSan
Back to Albany after my trip to New York and a happy meeting with v.
Pleasure was all my....

Quote

Interesting, right?


interesting...i will try to search for the thread it says... if the chart is down sell if it is going up then buy..


V
  • #63
  • Mar 3, 2009 8:31am Mar 3, 2009 8:31am
A lot of uncertainty accross the charts.
See this 4H...very long shadows...
A real killing field.
Have we not the upcoming housing news and economical speeches...
it would a nice dancing environment..
So the best for me is to release the army today.
Vacation time!
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #64
  • Edited 10:19am Mar 3, 2009 8:36am | Edited 10:19am
Another thoughts:

If the chart is north, buy.
If the chart is south, sell.
if the chart is flat, PT.
if you enter and the chart become flat, do nothing.
Not SL, Not PT.
Not bother with the news.
small positions.
the PT then occurs when the chart is flat.

Now what is the best TF for this?
1D, 4H?

Edit: Since this is a very visually PA oriented way for long term trading, a compresed view of 15M might be usefull. I began evaluating this approach, by entering @ 1.2599...Marked as red in the attached chart...why I shorted? because PA was falling..

We are in the money by 70 pips....now the question is when to exit...wait for a large consolidation in 15M...what is the meaning of large...how many ours...maybe a 1H bar might give some clarity....we will see.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #65
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:27am Mar 3, 2009 11:27am
Quoting luSan

We are in the money by 70 pips....now the question is when to exit...wait for a large consolidation in 15M...what is the meaning of large...how many ours...maybe a 1H bar might give some clarity....we will see.

I guess i will exit when it has a previous low... try to increase the books.


V
  • #66
  • Mar 3, 2009 6:50pm Mar 3, 2009 6:50pm
So.....
How to take a profit?
That is the question.

I put so much effort on learning how to stay alive that I am not clear on how to take a profit.

so shall we take it now...140 pips...or let it run...that is the question?
Me? I will let it run until tomorrow
Why?
It feels right...
Suggestions?
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #67
  • Mar 3, 2009 10:56pm Mar 3, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting luSan
So.....
How to take a profit?
That is the question.

I put so much effort on learning how to stay alive that I am not clear on how to take a profit.

so shall we take it now...140 pips...or let it run...that is the question?
Me? I will let it run until tomorrow
Why?
It feels right...
Suggestions?
Hi Lusan,

I know this question very well from programming my EA's some time ago.
What is profit? I still do not know.
But at least there are some parameters I consider:

  1. Losing Momentum regardless at wich time frame you are
  2. the falling back into a channel or behing a broken trendline again
  3. The appearance of a reversal pattern on M15 or H1
  4. An possibloe 38.2% retracement would be much more than I like to give back to the market, before the move would continue. In this scenario I would take profits (means: take attacking troops or at least some Attack levels out, to reenter again. But that is part of the dance I think)
  5. Some "external" fundamental reason (very seldom, because she reacts not rational every time)
  6. It has to feel right

  • #68
  • Mar 4, 2009 10:59am Mar 4, 2009 10:59am
Today I entered so fast that I misread the battle field and I ended up PA chasing. So PA punished me with a long and useless battle. The loss was trivial and confirmed once again that active MM and a solid MO save the book. Thanks God I am going slowly with my Forex training.

Errors commited today.
1. Entered against 4H and 1H.. violation of law #4
2. PA chasing...violation of law #9
3. Trading accross major news...violation of law #1

Still I survive and I could stay somewhat longer, but the mindset was already disturbed and focus lost on reaching a balance book. My inner master said: "Lusan, now you quit. Relax and fight another day." So I listen.

Why am I posting this dance?
Because I wanted to share a good example of holding you own even when TA is misread and we are totally offbased. Active position management works as long as we do not panic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: March 4.jpg Size: 75 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #69
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:01am Mar 4, 2009 11:01am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Lusan,

I know this question very well from programming my EA's some time ago.
What is profit? I still do not know.
But at least there are some parameters I consider:[list][*]Losing Momentum regardless at wich time frame you are[*]the falling back into a channel or behing a broken trendline again[*]The appearance of a reversal pattern on M15 or H1[*]An possibloe 38.2% retracement would be much more than I like to give back to the market, before the move would continue. In this scenario I would take profits (means: take attacking troops...
I remember the lack of clarity I felt when we discussed in TAF the profit taking topic.
I think that there is a huge lack on that topic.
I will ponder about it.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #70
  • Mar 4, 2009 2:08pm Mar 4, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting luSan
[...]
Why am I posting this dance?
Because I wanted to share a good example of holding you own even when TA is misread and we are totally offbased. Active position management works as long as we do not panic.

Hi Lusan,

my dancing today was a perfect example what happens, when losing overview and falling in panic. Have blown up a 3000 EUR demo account with my PowerDance. I'm trading demo this week, because I'm testing some things ...

Want to add to the profit discussion:
As long as you are not changing your complete trading style - and reading your dairy entries do not make me believe taht you are doing so - I would close a trade respectively take some trrops out, when the criterium for entering the trrops is not valid any longer. Our way of dancing is based on momentum. We are adding to our position (attacking) when momentum increases. So we have to reduce the sizes when momentum decreases.
Our view of the recent momentum is depending on the time frame we are looking to.
From my point of view the usage of other criteria than momentum will not be in harmony with the way we are dancing ...
  • #71
  • Edited 3:20pm Mar 4, 2009 2:54pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting luSan
Errors commited today.
1. Entered against 4H and 1H.. violation of law #4
2. PA chasing...violation of law #9
3. Trading accross major news...violation of law #1

Still I survive and I could stay somewhat longer, but the mindset was already disturbed and focus lost on reaching a balance book. My inner master said: "Lusan, now you quit. Relax and fight another day." So I listen.
.

Well atleast you came back with book saved.....

Well nice analysis so you know what u did...

PA chasing has done killing for me too..

One thing if you wouldnt have flipped and kept calmed and executed as per banker i guess you would ahve made big profit am i right to say the Flipping is the reason that you couldnt bank more pips???


V
  • #72
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:01pm Mar 4, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
One thing if you wouldnt have flipped and kept calmed and executed as per banker i guess you would ahve made big profit am i right to say the Flipping is the reason that you couldnt bank more pips???
You are correct...
however, in the middle of the battle, the mind is totally engaged.
I listen to my inner being...
it said, "Lusan, you are in real trouble. You are going south and PA is going north. Wrong bus, wrong bus.
SAVE the book and get out! NOW."
I listened and obeyed...
I saved the book then I saw PA still going and going...

I obeyed:I saved the darn book
and I walked away.

...hey...
we really do not know what PA will do next...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #73
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:44pm Mar 4, 2009 6:44pm
Quoting MaMood
As long as you are not changing your complete trading style - and reading your dairy entries do not make me believe taht you are doing so - I would close a trade respectively take some trrops out, when the criterium for entering the trrops is not valid any longer. Our way of dancing is based on momentum. We are adding to our position (attacking) when momentum increases. So we have to reduce the sizes when momentum decreases.
Our view of the recent momentum is depending on the time frame we are looking to.
That makes a lot of sense...
I am planning to write a MTF momentum tool similar to the one you have and do some thinking about it.

Quote
From my point of view the usage of other criteria than momentum will not be in harmony with the way we are dancing ...

Still...what is the right momentum to pay attention to?...
I just do not know...
I go by my guts...
and sometimes is right and others is wrong!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #74
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:45pm Mar 4, 2009 9:45pm
Lusan, something for you to think about...........

Generally you know when the move is over when? You get a larger retrace than what was seen in the normal moves of the current trend. This can be seen as a trendline/channel break, or sometimes a rounding look can be seen when momentum eases...... but normally (but now always) we have a retest (albeit mostly failed) of the high/low before the move surrenders and a reversal is seen.

Some people call it a change in behavior, but PA will start to change, that same feeling you get with a turn on wind except in a different direction.

if that makes sense?

regards,

a
  • #75
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:57am Mar 5, 2009 3:57am
Quoting luSan
[...]

Still...what is the right momentum to pay attention to?...
I just do not know...
I go by my guts...
and sometimes is right and others is wrong!
Yeap - that is a good question.
I would try it this way:
First of all you need a basic measurement of the traded volume, to get some info if it is in normal and tradable ranges. For example today from 01700 GMT yesterday to now (0950 gmt) it is very thin and i stoped trading.
A momentum in a very thin market is not worth/advisable to be traded. It has no significance.

If the market is trading in normal ranges, the momentum is a value that could be derived from different observations:

- Increase in the rate of change.
- Increase of velocity/speed (pips/time)
- Increase of ticks per time
- Increase of the standard deviation in price movement.

What ever criterium we take, we have to build the relation to the average value of the last n bars o decide, if momentum is increasing.

Most often an increase in momentum goes with a "start impulse" after a periode of congestion. May be we can detect that impulse with an FFT ???

Just some thoughts ....

CU,
Niels.
  • #76
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:16am Mar 5, 2009 6:16am
Quoting auxesis
Lusan, something for you to think about...........

Generally you know when the move is over when? You get a larger retrace than what was seen in the normal moves of the current trend. This can be seen as a trendline/channel break, or sometimes a rounding look can be seen when momentum eases...... but normally (but now always) we have a retest (albeit mostly failed) of the high/low before the move surrenders and a reversal is seen.

Some people call it a change in behavior, but PA will start to change, that same feeling you get with a turn on...
Thanks a.
It does make sense. I see very clearly the slow down in the 5M: It is a general slowing of PA momentum as measured by the leg. Also MA become flatters.
However that is useful for a slow dance as many others do. In my case, my dances are shorter and faster so that indication is already too late. Maybe I should start looking for some other signs in the 1M and 30S.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #77
  • Edited 8:39am Mar 5, 2009 8:07am | Edited 8:39am
Another interesting model that I want to share. This is my shortest dance ever: 10 min and out.
Done for the day and the week.
Almost perfect.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: March 5.jpg Size: 66 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #78
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:37am Mar 5, 2009 8:37am
To complement my dances, I am trying to develop an approach to trade the 4H with the little that I understand of Forex.
So
it looks like this:

When all markets are close, PA holds. This happens between 5:00-7:00 pm. So during that period, when the dust is settle, I analyze 4H for E/U.

1. On the 4H, what is visual direction of the last 2 or 3 candles? This is not candlestick analysis but just observation of bull/bear power strugle. Look at the the prior 4H S/R, are they important? What does my guts tell me?
2. If it looks North, Buy it.
3. If it looks South, Sell it it.
4. If it looks unclear, exit if in or skip the day
5. No stops. The only stop is PA decision done during the analysis time.
6. PT fixed at 100 pips. A normal range for E/U. Probably ATR would be a better PT setting. That will be evaluated later.

Avoid looking at the trade during the day. This is a trade-and-forget strategy.

Yesterday I began. I collected 140 pips..(PT was set at 150 which I think is to large for E/U)...
Now I wait until this evening for the next evaluation.

I am using 100 units.
Real money because I do not believe in demo training -no mindset involved.
After testing and refining this approach for a while, if this works, I will increase in 0.5 % until a max of 2.0 %. of leverage account balance. We will see.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #79
  • Mar 5, 2009 10:10am Mar 5, 2009 10:10am
Quoting luSan
Another interesting model that I want to share. This is my shortest dance ever: 10 min and out.
Done for the day and the week.
Almost perfect.

So Lusan

Have you increased you sizes...

V
  • #80
  • Mar 5, 2009 10:26am Mar 5, 2009 10:26am
Quoting indianguyinny24
So Lusan

Have you increased you sizes...

V
Yes.
I increase my dance size.
Actually I the plan is to increase the size
once a month..no rush.

The long term position trading
is in testing mode
so
Size is 100 units only.
After trying it for a while
I will increase it to 0.5 % leveraged account balance.
I open a small account for that type of trade
and I deposited $1000...
We will see.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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