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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #163,561
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:59pm Mar 3, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting PracticalPip
Seems like several people wanting GBP/JPY to break up, but price action is extremely unconvincing. How many shots have we taken at this 138.40/50 range in the last few hours? Each one becomes less and less exciting.

The 1 hour is overbought and just waiting to crater in my opinion. I see a drop to the high 135s or low 136s followed by a bounce to maybe the 137.50 area only to gain steam and push down through this uptrend line that everyone knows about.

I know everyone is getting off to this "bull flag" on the four hour, but lets keep...
Not everybody, been posting that same daily chart for about a week now. . . I hear you and I'm with you on this one. . .
  • #163,562
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:12pm Mar 3, 2009 2:12pm
i guess big volume is scalping the market
someone is banking on those small swings
buyers are comin in strong and the sellers are not giving up without a fight
some sort of breakout should be soon

i remember once i told someone here on this thread that cable was going to 4800.96 or somethin outrageous and to an extent he believed me and asked me to post a chart and some insight
  • #163,563
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:14pm Mar 3, 2009 2:14pm
Well, there is double top H4 in USD/JPY...If that suggest that USD/JPY will go down then GBP/JPY will follow...IMO
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #163,564
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:15pm Mar 3, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting PracticalPip
Seems like several people wanting GBP/JPY to break up, but price action is extremely unconvincing. How many shots have we taken at this 138.40/50 range in the last few hours? Each one becomes less and less exciting.

The 1 hour is overbought and just waiting to crater in my opinion. I see a drop to the high 135s or low 136s followed by a bounce to maybe the 137.50 area only to gain steam and push down through this uptrend line that everyone knows about.

I know everyone is getting off to this "bull flag" on the four hour, but lets keep...


forget worsening economy ... note how the correlation has gone between markets and GJ .... s and p has lost 50 points and gj is only 300 pips of last weeks high .. a mere sneeze for GJ.

USD is now safe haven .. makes NO sense , but it is.

GU likely went down this week due to ' interest rate cuts ' of BOE .. so now they are built in . We may well see a decent move up in GU later this week if there are no surprise rate cuts

135 has not even been tested abd there almost seems to be accumulation every time we head down into 136 zone
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,565
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:21pm Mar 3, 2009 2:21pm
IMHO USD might be dropped in coming days
even kiwi is ready for bigger retracement
  • #163,566
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:26pm Mar 3, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting quecee5
wouldn't get to comfortable with the upside. . .
hidden divergence on daily says something totally diiiiiiiiiiiiiffffffffffffffffffffeeeeeeeeernt!

wonka-wonka!

I have something on rsx to .. bearish hidden divergence .... but i think ranging conditions are what we have here that is all .... range is 141.5 to 136 ish .....
I am not shouting 150 from the treee tops ... or 120 , but am really enjoying the range we currently have


138.5 is stubborn as it is a major pivot on the charts between support and resistance.

also attached a 4 hour with some simple VSA observations

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym193.png Size: 142 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym196.png Size: 145 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,567
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:33pm Mar 3, 2009 2:33pm
On the G/J M5 chart, price is still finding support at the 50ema . . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5M.jpg Size: 321 KB
  • #163,568
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:33pm Mar 3, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
forget worsening economy ... note how the correlation has gone between markets and GJ .... s and p has lost 50 points and gj is only 300 pips of last weeks high .. a mere sneeze for GJ.

USD is now safe haven .. makes NO sense , but it is.

GU likely went down this week due to ' interest rate cuts ' of BOE .. so now they are built in . We may well see a decent move up in GU later this week if there are no surprise rate cuts

135 has not even been tested abd there almost seems to be accumulation every time we head down into 136 zone
I agree the correlation has been out of whack, but we knew it was coming. With all the bad news from Japan, it was a perfect excuse for a large retracement in USD/JPY and other crosses. It's only a matter of time before this is just chalked up as another piece of forgotten news (oh, you don't say the economy in Japan is bad... I had no clue!). Things will return to normal and yen crosses may even "make up" for lost time (violent move down?). Who knows...

We all know nothing is truly "priced in" to the markets. Non change in interest rates could propel GBP/USD to break most recent lows and bring GBP/JPY right with it. Sure AUD left rates unchanged last night, but things are MUCH worse in the UK than down under. I don't see it happening for the Brits.
  • #163,569
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:34pm Mar 3, 2009 2:34pm
ES dropped 10 pointsd off highs ..... GJ not even blinked ... 20 pips ....

correlation is ONLY on the up moves on the market , if ( and a big if )we get a bear market rally in indexes gj likely will move high
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,570
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:38pm Mar 3, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting PracticalPip
I agree the correlation has been out of whack, but we knew it was coming. With all the bad news from Japan, it was a perfect excuse for a large retracement in USD/JPY and other crosses. It's only a matter of time before this is just chalked up as another piece of forgotten news (oh, you don't say the economy in Japan is bad... I had no clue!). Things will return to normal and yen crosses may even "make up" for lost time (violent move down?). Who knows...

We all know nothing is truly "priced in" to the markets. Non change in interest rates...

1/2% is built in ... that is expected i think . that take them to .5%. If they leave it at this and not .25% I would not be surprised to see a nice bounce in G. The 4 hour chart is already showing bullish div on rsx in this consolidation pahse.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,571
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:39pm Mar 3, 2009 2:39pm
can i get a price check gj p[lease ?

138.26 ? i think my data feed is down .....

ES 14 point drop ... GJ 20 pip movement only .. wtf !!!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,572
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:41pm Mar 3, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
can i get a price check gj p[lease ?

138.26 ? i think my data feed is down .....

ES 14 point drop ... GJ 20 pip movement only .. wtf !!!

138.09 here

Edit: IBFX
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #163,573
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:42pm Mar 3, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
ES dropped 10 pointsd off highs ..... GJ not even blinked ... 20 pips ....

correlation is ONLY on the up moves on the market , if ( and a big if )we get a bear market rally in indexes gj likely will move high
Oh I think she'll come down too... just patiently waiting to see if the move is for real.
  • #163,574
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:43pm Mar 3, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting Vanhook2
138.09 here
yup it is alive .. 138.08 here ... but come on!!! ES dropped to test lows and GJ barely moved .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,575
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:44pm Mar 3, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I have something on rsx to .. bearish hidden divergence .... but i think ranging conditions are what we have here that is all .... range is 141.5 to 136 ish .....
I am not shouting 150 from the treee tops ... or 120 , but am really enjoying the range we currently have


138.5 is stubborn as it is a major pivot on the charts between support and resistance.

also attached a 4 hour with some simple VSA observations

Attachment

Attachment
agreed!
As stated last night charts are mixed at best and ranging would probably be the play today as it has been.

At this point it could go either way with 138 support and daily looking very bearish. . . I think 2nite and 2morrow we see more of the same until thursday's rate announcement. . . That will be the breakout out where price will ultimately go. . .

I'll catch my shorts at that time but at higher price as long as that daily charts stays put -
  • #163,576
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:54pm Mar 3, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting quecee5
agreed!
As stated last night charts are mixed at best and ranging would probably be the play today as it has been.

At this point it could go either way with 138 support and daily looking very bearish. . . I think 2nite and 2morrow we see more of the same until thursday's rate announcement. . . That will be the breakout out where price will ultimately go. . .

I'll catch my shorts at that time but at higher price as long as that daily charts stays put -
ranging market .. like music to the ears

beauty of ranging markets, newbies, is on smaller time frames we do not have any of those crazy 100 pip candles on a 3 min chart that have been seen recently in strong trends , when all of a sudden profit taking can happen ., or the market catches a breather . As long as you can determine the range trading is fairly straight forward
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,577
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:04pm Mar 3, 2009 3:04pm
wow havent looked at a nickle chart in a while but she sure does SCREAM expansion to the upside big time in that ascending wedge or whatever u want to call it when u zoom out
maybe anothe r37.80 touch but doubt it
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #163,578
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:07pm Mar 3, 2009 3:07pm
G/J sucks right now, even scalping that range is way tight, so heres a Gold chart, because Gold will hit $2k an ounce, and if the IMF sells its stash its going to visit $300-$400 first, could be a smart play if ever there was.
Attached Images
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #163,579
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:13pm Mar 3, 2009 3:13pm
Here is a 5M chart that I have been working with.
Also, I'm checking out GodfreyH's Gann TS.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1.gif Size: 36 KB
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #163,580
  • Edited 3:26pm Mar 3, 2009 3:15pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
G/J sucks right now, even scalping that range is way tight, so heres a Gold chart, because Gold will hit $2k an ounce, and if the IMF sells its stash its going to visit $300-$400 first, could be a smart play if ever there was.

yea gold 300-500 sounds about right coming up

been saying gold is a sell for 2 weeks now off the hi
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
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