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Silent Service Method

  • #161
  • Mar 3, 2009 9:18am Mar 3, 2009 9:18am
Good thread, I will camp here and see how this thread developed into. Thanks for sharing your knowledge clockwork71.
  • #162
  • Mar 3, 2009 9:48am Mar 3, 2009 9:48am
Rabid's question is valid. Asking about different time zones is something that is very common. However, all you can do is play the charts you have.

As I posted earlier, it's not that the pinbar itself is magical, it's that it shows the psychological reaction to markets. It's the "V" pattern of price in the lower time frame (since it was in fact a daily pinbar I picked to show.) that show what you really need to focus on. It's the failure to break through. Not that we are all on GMT or whatever.

I only bring this up because I see a lot of wasted energy (and I do understand why) on this subject in various forums. I know it seems like it stacks the cards against you, but it doesn't really matter. It's the rejection of price that matters to us.

If you use broker A, and your friend uses broker B, they might be different time zones. If you are overly concerned, you can use multiple brokers so you don't miss any pinbars......but is that realistic? I don't think so, because off the top of my head, you would have to have something like 5 brokers that I know of.

Remember - the shape of the bar matters....to a point. It's the reaction that we are really paying attention to.

Clockwork
  • #163
  • Mar 3, 2009 10:15am Mar 3, 2009 10:15am
This is a horrible pair to trade. Choppy, choppy, choppy. However, on longer term charts it acts the same as most other pairs. These two charts show an example of playing a pinbar on the daily chart, based on weekly S/R lines.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdweeklysrlines.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdweeklysrlines2.png Size: 50 KB
  • #164
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:23pm Mar 3, 2009 1:23pm
As with the example in our AUD/NZD charts above, all trading can be narowed down to one thing:

Did we, or didn't we break through support/resistance?"

It's that simple. We are watching how price reacts to a S/R zone. Either it will hold, or it won't. If it rejects price, then you have to be thinking about it going to the next "area".

It repeats over and over. That's it. That's the golden rule/secret.

Needless to say, there are a lot of nuances, but if you understand that point above, you are ahead of a lot of traders already.

We shall look move into these areas, the formations and what they show, and how to exploit this information. (And just as importantly.....when not to try to exploit some of it.)

Clockwork
  • #165
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:31pm Mar 3, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
As with the example in our AUD/NZD charts above, all trading can be narowed down to one thing:

Did we, or didn't we break through support/resistance?"

It's that simple. We are watching how price reacts to a S/R zone. Either it will hold, or it won't. If it rejects price, then you have to be thinking about it going to the next "area".

It repeats over and over. That's it. That's the golden rule/secret.

Needless to say, there are a lot of nuances, but if you understand that point above, you are ahead of a lot of traders already....
You just put a smile on my face . The suspense your building up for this thread is of Hollywood proportions. I know you'll deliver a 'blockbuster' of a thread when its all said and done.

Following your thread these last few days (along with some bits and pieces from Jacko, Strat, BRV, J16) has totally transformed my outlook on the markets. Its greatly appreciated, God bless you. You didnt have to do this but you are, which speaks volumes about your character.

Patiently waiting .... BWise
  • #166
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:33pm Mar 3, 2009 1:33pm
Here's my take on the aud/usd. The s/r lines/areas are marked on the chart in purple. Now, if I understand the path correctly that Clockwork is trying to lead us down here, we would really only be looking for those A+ setups at the areas marked by the blue boxes. Of course there may be opportunities elsewhere for those more accustomed to price action, but you can be quite confident placing your trades at these levels if you get the right confirming PA. Of course, we can't factor in random rate changes

Great job on the thread so far Clockwork. Looking forward to the journey

Best,
Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd d 030309.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #167
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:50pm Mar 3, 2009 1:50pm
Quote
It's that simple. We are watching how price reacts to a S/R zone. Either it will hold, or it won't. If it rejects price, then you have to be thinking about it going to the next "area".

So unless price breaks above the 2900/2950 level, then pulls back to retest (and doesn't fall back below) you wouldn't trade it? You'd wait for the pullback after the breakout to confirm support?
  • #168
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:53pm Mar 3, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting Rabid
So unless price breaks above the 2900/2950 level, then pulls back to retest (and doesn't fall back below) you wouldn't trade it? You'd wait for the pullback after the breakout to confirm support?

On breakouts, yes....I tend to wait for some kind of support confirmation.
  • #169
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:54pm Mar 3, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting Chris P
Here's my take on the aud/usd. The s/r lines/areas are marked on the chart in purple. Now, if I understand the path correctly that Clockwork is trying to lead us down here, we would really only be looking for those A+ setups at the areas marked by the blue boxes. Of course there may be opportunities elsewhere for those more accustomed to price action, but you can be quite confident placing your trades at these levels if you get the right confirming PA. Of course, we can't factor in random rate changes

Great job on the thread so far Clockwork....

Yes, the two other areas in the center are more or less minor. They DO show some strength, and can be traded, but just by the fact they aren't at a swing high or low, they are second-class trades.

Clockwork
  • #170
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:37pm Mar 3, 2009 2:37pm
This thread seems quite similar to J16's thread..!!!
Find an Edge. Only way to succeed in this business.
  • #171
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:53pm Mar 3, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting jattputt
This thread seems quite similar to J16's thread..!!!
Odd how that happens, huh?
  • #172
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:57pm Mar 3, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting jattputt
This thread seems quite similar to J16's thread..!!!
Deja Vu All Over Again!

  • #173
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:05pm Mar 3, 2009 3:05pm
There is a commonly used series of phrases in trading that say something to the effect of:

"Never go with the herd." "You should always look at things differently." And things like that....

Here's my take on that:

Only an idiot says such things. I know there are times to not go with the herd. But let's ask a question: "Without the herd, are you going to push the markets by yourself?" The answer is "No" of course. You need to be in synch with the herd. They will push prices past your entry and perhaps into the profit you desire.

If you are the only one out there in your direction.....that's kind of like stepping in front of a speeding bus, it might be a huge payday sooner or later.....but you have to go through a ton of pain and trials to get your payment from the lawsuit you filed.

Isn't easier to be unimaginative and just got with the flow? Perhaps hippies would make great traders?

Clockwork
  • #174
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:27pm Mar 3, 2009 4:27pm
This is a chart of a bar I like a lot. It's called an engulfing bar. It engulfs several bars before it.....shaking a lot of traders out. I love these things, but they are kind of rare.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #175
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:38pm Mar 3, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
This is a chart of a bar I like a lot. It's called an engulfing bar. It engulfs several bars before it.....shaking a lot of traders out. I love these things, but they are kind of rare.....

You wrote within the chart: " Entry on this pair is 30 pips for me. So 30 pips above our bar, I'm in ... As a filter I like to wait for a break of this bar? "

Which bar are you refering to, the engulfing bar? or the small bar that it engulfs?
  • #176
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:44pm Mar 3, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting BWise
You wrote within the chart: " Entry on this pair is 30 pips for me. So 30 pips above our bar, I'm in ... As a filter I like to wait for a break of this bar? "

Which bar are you refering to, the engulfing bar? or the small bar that it engulfs?
The engulfing bar. I use 30 pips on this pair because it's AUD/NZD which has a ridiculous spread.

  • #177
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:49pm Mar 3, 2009 4:49pm
Quote
This is a chart of a bar I like a lot. It's called an engulfing bar. It engulfs several bars before it.....shaking a lot of traders out. I love these things, but they are kind of rare.....

Linda Bradford Raschke talked about this pattern in a recent audio series (posted on here somewhere). She relates to it as a tightening of volatility, followed by a big impulse out. She trades it on the pullback (to the blue line in your chart) using stochs, but obviously the indicator isn't really needed.

Just interesting how different people see the same pattern.

Anyway, how do you determine your exits on a situation like that? There's a lot of room to get whipped on that chart.
  • #178
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:01pm Mar 3, 2009 5:01pm
Clock,
What you think of the aud/nzd.We are approaching a pretty strong resistance level.It showed support back in 2000 also.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #179
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:02pm Mar 3, 2009 5:02pm
When we are in the area we want to trade what do we look for if it's going to in the same direction or a reversal. Pin Bar? Engulfing bar? Higher Highs, Lower Lows?

Also if i am trading the daily chart do i look fo these patters on the same time period or the lower time frames.

btw - clockwork thanks for the great thread.
  • #180
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:08pm Mar 3, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting AndsX
When we are in the area we want to trade what do we look for if it's going to in the same direction or a reversal. Pin Bar? Engulfing bar? Higher Highs, Lower Lows?

Also if i am trading the daily chart do i look fo these patters on the same time period or the lower time frames.

btw - clockwork thanks for the great thread.

Those are questions a lot of us are asking ourselves, but I guess we have to sit tight and wait for this thread to evolve before we get a more definite answer.

Good luck tho ...
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