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Lets build a system from the ground up..eur/usd

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 3, 2009 12:57pm Mar 3, 2009 12:57pm
A little about me and what I hope to gain by starting this thread. I have been trying to learn and conquer the forex market for a little over a year now. I would still definetly consider myself to be a newbie considering I have yet to find something which consistently works..Have had many sound ideas and been oh so close so many times (atleast in my head)..I've taken several different aproaches and still favor a few which i'd like to share with you in the hopes of exchanging knowledge ,ideas, experience and try to put something together that truly works...One thing I've noticed is that it is a very difficult road to tackle by one's self, so hopefully by the end of this thread we would have all helped one another in someway and found something that works for us all.....I mean , how hard can it be right? lets take a 24 hour candle...in the time from which it opens until it closes price can only do one of two things....it can either go up or go down...thats it..its got no other place to go other than closing right back were it started..which still wouldnt be so bad...so you have two favorable outcomes to one unfavorable outcome...right of the bat you would think that the odds our definetly in our favor, correct? This was one of my approaches to which had no avail...perhaps not enough time was dedicated to these nor the right principles applied...this is one option i'd definetly like to discuss here and look into a bit further....I plan on picking one pair and one pair alone and let us try to master this pair together before moving on....I plan on sharing my charts and thought process behind every trade I place in order to analyze what went wrong or what went right with each individual trade.....and please encourage all involved to do the same....with that said , I'll shortly put up the charts am looking at now and the thought process behind my game plan....thanks to all in advanced for taking this challenge on with me and who are willing to participate and share your knowledge with others....
  • #2
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:05pm Mar 3, 2009 1:05pm
cant or dont know how to put up here as image so am including as attachement...hope it works...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #3
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:13pm Mar 3, 2009 1:13pm
Ok, so were looking at the Eur/Usd daily chart...now here's what I see when I look at this and my interpretation....I have the heiken ashi indicator just to give me a smoother look and feel for whats going on and the stochastics with it default settings...from looking at the chart I see that the price of 1.2513 not visible here but if you scroll back on a daily chart its bouced of this area about three other times...so in my head this tells me that this area seems to be a fairly solid support area which price has not yet been able to break...by looking at the stochastics it also show's price as being over sold by being under the 20 line....or atleast thats how am interpreting this indicator...by looking at the heiken ashi candles itself the sell signal is not as strong as the others before it because it currently has a wick in both directions and is not flat at the top....so is the price simply retracing or is this a possible reversal? for the time being i am favoring reversal due to it being so close and bounceing of the 1.2513 support level we established earlier...
  • #4
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:13pm Mar 3, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting mf036ml
cant or dont know how to put up here as image so am including as attachement...hope it works...
I will listen to you, go ahead please.
  • #5
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:15pm Mar 3, 2009 1:15pm
Every good trading system has the following quality:

It looks for and takes advantage of a specific, measurable, and consistent market action or pattern.

What pattern do you want to take advantage of with EU?
  • #6
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:24pm Mar 3, 2009 1:24pm
Ok, now were looking at a thiry min. chart...where the read arrow is , is the beggining of what appears to be a small down trend...then price retraces to about where i drew in the red line...(1.2567) roughly...and continues downward too about ...1.2522 just about our 1.2513 strong support level as established or i should say interpreted above...price has bounced off this level and is now moving up...NOW..is this another retrace before it continues to move down or is this the beggining of the reversal and if so, can we take a trade and what should our goal or target be...I'll continue to post as I deem new information becomes available in my head...am still leaning towards a reversal due to the price being so close to the support level 1.2513
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd30.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #7
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:28pm Mar 3, 2009 1:28pm
Ronald , right now to be honest i'd be willing to take advantage of any pattern I can possibly identify...I think my problem and what am trying to solve by voicing my thought process outloud is perhaps how to identify these patterns which i have yet to due succesfully....Also, if two heads are better than one, then how much better would 10 or 20 be exchanging ideas and picking up on things perhaps the other didnt...thank you so much for your input and any advise or participation is extremely appreciated...
  • #8
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:40pm Mar 3, 2009 1:40pm
two heads may be better than one, but are they more efficient?

Just look at any G-8 government. They have 1000s of heads working together. How much work actually gets done?


As for patterns, there are many:

  1. Trend finding
  2. Breakout
  3. scalping
  4. counter trending...
  5. etc

Your choice really. There is no one-size-fits-all pattern.

  • #9
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:43pm Mar 3, 2009 1:43pm
Ok , so if this is truly the begging of a reversal...am assuming once the stoch reaches the top or near the top the first retracement should start to take place...which would drive the stoch back down and if it retraces to a point higher than the previous swing low...1.2519 once the stoch goes from the bottom back up it would be safe to assume that it is indeed a reversal, that the first retracement on the 30 min chart has taken place and that the up movement will then continue to move forward and would be a good entry point with your stop being at the last swing low...correct? please feel free to disagree with me and with the details on why as well...once this has or has not taken place i will go ahead and post again....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd30.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #10
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:46pm Mar 3, 2009 1:46pm
Ronald , Id like to keep this to examing trades and why or why they didnt work...so that all of us who arent yet keen on picking up these patterns so easily can benifit from it....if you dont mind...thank you....
  • #11
  • Edited 1:54pm Mar 3, 2009 1:52pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting mf036ml
Ok , so if this is truly the begging of a reversal...am assuming once the stoch reaches the top or near the top the first retracement should start to take place...which would drive the stoch back down and if it retraces to a point higher than the previous swing low...1.2519 once the stoch goes from the bottom back up it would be safe to assume that it is indeed a reversal, that the first retracement on the 30 min chart has taken place and that the up movement will then continue to move forward and would be a good entry point with your stop being...
Hi mf036ml.... nice name !

If you want anyone to take much notice then my suggestions are:

1) Start using new lines and the odd new para as reading your posts like that is unbelievably hard to do.... sorry ...... ..... ....

2) Try to answer questions from your guests before rambling on with something else

3) Not be rude to guests

Good luck

WG
  • #12
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:58pm Mar 3, 2009 1:58pm
Willow gal , am sorry am new on this whole posting in forums and threads things....you lost me with the new para suggestion....am assuming it has to do with each time i post a paragraph on here....am currently just clicking post reply and going from there....is there is an easier way to follow me please let me know...and sorry about any confusion...am sorry my thought process comes off as rambling...I started this with the hopes of learing something from one another...and going through my thought process as well as anyones elses that would like to share, agree or disagree with me...what i dont want is to deviate from this or waste anytime on anything else...if this is not for someone than hey thanks for taking a look and let us be ......perhaps if I get no one willing to be involved then I'll simply stop the thread...but by all means please, let me know how it would be easier to follow along the new paragraphs of my rambling...thank you..
  • #13
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:08pm Mar 3, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting mf036ml
Willow gal , am sorry am new on this whole posting in forums and threads things....you lost me with the new para suggestion....am assuming it has to do with each time i post a paragraph on here....am currently just clicking post reply and going from there....is there is an easier way to follow me please let me know...and sorry about any confusion...am sorry my thought process comes off as rambling...I started this with the hopes of learing something from one another...and going through my thought process as well as anyones elses that would like...
You have lost me !

Good luck
  • #14
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:23pm Mar 3, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting Willowgal
You have lost me !

Good luck
wow, not even 24 hours into this and nothing but critisisism and negative replies...for some reason i was really excited about this...for the first time in over a year i thought I could get a small group of people to brainstorm and exchange ideas and knowledge with one another...I guess i'll go through this trade and win , lose, or draw if no one's intersted that'll be the end of this and it'll be back to the drawing board on my own...
  • #15
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:41pm Mar 3, 2009 2:41pm
I'm kinda in the same boat. I started with Mutual Funds and stocks but for the last 5 years or so I only traded options and eminis. Now for about a year I have been trading mini lots in eurusd with minimal success. So I'll subscribe to the thread and see what transpires.

One thing I will add, and I guess it comes down to preference, is that the Stoc oscillator is a lagging indicator. All are to some degree or another, and I feel to anticipate future moves you need to identify patterns, as was stated. These patterns will be confirmed with the interpretation of the indicator. The indicator I prefer is the CCI.

You may want to identify the type of trading you plan to do before developing a style. i.e. Swing, daytrade or scalp. I'm unclear as to what your timeframe is.

For me, I scalp. I can identify when a reversal will occur I just have trouble knowing wether its a pullback or a trend change. So far, for me, its about the same as flipping a coin. 50/50. And my account proves it.
  • #16
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:48pm Mar 3, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting Tigertron
I'm kinda in the same boat. I started with Mutual Funds and stocks but for the last 5 years or so I only traded options and eminis. Now for about a year I have been trading mini lots in eurusd with minimal success. So I'll subscribe to the thread and see what transpires.

One thing I will add, and I guess it comes down to preference, is that the Stoc oscillator is a lagging indicator. All are to some degree or another, and I feel to anticipate future moves you need to identify patterns, as was stated. These patterns will be confirmed with the interpretation...

Ok, so I totally agree with the indicator comment....and agree that it should only be used as a confirmation to what you beleive the market will do...I usually only using the heiken ashi because i like the way it smooths out whats going on for me...I put the stoch up there to see how it works...if one could truly learn how to read the market and everything on trendlines and support and resistance is true...then am assuming that the trained eye could probably trade alot better without any indicators....my eye is no where near trained ....so i'll go through this one trade and see how it goes and if any interest is sparked...thank you so much for the support and for sharing your story...
  • #17
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:06pm Mar 3, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting mf036ml
Ok, so I totally agree with the indicator comment....and agree that it should only be used as a confirmation to what you beleive the market will do...I usually only using the heiken ashi because i like the way it smooths out whats going on for me...I put the stoch up there to see how it works...if one could truly learn how to read the market and everything on trendlines and support and resistance is true...then am assuming that the trained eye could probably trade alot better without any indicators....my eye is no where near trained ....so i'll...
Ok, on the thirty min. chart...its obvious the price is starting to come down again...and is confirmed by the heiken ashi and the stoch is nearing over sold ...so is the first retrace before price reverses and goes up...or is it simply going to continue downward...am still favoring that its either a reversal or that price will simply start ranging 1.2513 and 1.2599....if this is correct once price continues upward...I would assume it would be a good entry point with atleast a target of around 1.2599...guess i'll keep watching and see what it does.....
  • #18
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:07pm Mar 3, 2009 3:07pm
here's the 30 min. chart am looking at now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd30.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #19
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:14pm Mar 3, 2009 3:14pm
I think you missed Ron's point....you first have to decide what type of trader you want to be and then what time frames you want to use....without this basic premise I think you will flap in the wind. Trading with the trend on M5 might be a counter trend trade on H4....well, there are many possibilities.

So....what type of trading do you want to do....you first need to answer that..

Trend
Counter trend
Breakout

Are three basic ones and perhaps where you should be starting....

And then what timeframe...

Cheers
CanuckCT


Quoting mf036ml
Ronald , Id like to keep this to examing trades and why or why they didnt work...so that all of us who arent yet keen on picking up these patterns so easily can benifit from it....if you dont mind...thank you....
  • #20
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:31pm Mar 3, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting mf036ml
wow, not even 24 hours into this and nothing but critisisism and negative replies...for some reason i was really excited about this...for the first time in over a year i thought I could get a small group of people to brainstorm and exchange ideas and knowledge with one another...I guess i'll go through this trade and win , lose, or draw if no one's intersted that'll be the end of this and it'll be back to the drawing board on my own...
Well why not answer Ronald's question then ?
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