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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,161
  • Edited Mar 29, 2007 12:06am Mar 28, 2007 11:51pm | Edited Mar 29, 2007 12:06am
I have a banker friend at bank of america she says their going long at to day pivot wich is 229.77 tp at 231.44
  • #2,162
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:09am Mar 29, 2007 1:09am
Quoting WHTenn
Take a look at using moving averages as levels of support and resistance. Look at some of the following MAs on the following charts:

Time frames: Weekly, Daily, 4hr, 1hr, 15min
Simple and/or Exponential MAs: 3 year, 365, 200, 100, 50, 30 and 10

It is stunning how reliable these lines react.

I hope this helps
Excellent advice, you might also try a 200 EMA with +/- 60 and 120 bands on a 1 minute chart......great hits at 00:02, 1:35 and 3:00 so far today http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,163
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:10am Mar 29, 2007 1:10am
look to go long in the ny sesssion when the london and ny banks are trading the market is going sideways until the ny market opens in the us
  • #2,164
  • Edited 1:40am Mar 29, 2007 1:30am | Edited 1:40am
First batch of dip buying out: 168, 83, 53 pips.

Still running other longs, adding at resumption of the move.

My mistake was entering sort of too soon in the dip buying strategy, had carried 250+ drawdown in one of them...

But payback time has arrived.
  • #2,165
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:46am Mar 29, 2007 1:46am
200 sma on a 4hr chart is showing resistance for now but wait for the ny open gbp/jpy i am thinking 231.30 or 232.40
  • #2,166
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:50am Mar 29, 2007 1:50am
Quoting fxtrader06
200 sma on a 4hr chart is showing resistance for now but wait for the ny open gbp/jpy i am thinking 231.30 or 232.40
That's what I'm on. Reloading below 230.37 / above 231.0

Let's see what comes from NYSE, too. GU dead means all GBP trades are being via carries so far - even with Euro going up...
  • #2,167
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:57am Mar 29, 2007 1:57am
Quoting cesarnc
That's what I'm on. Reloading below 230.37 / above 231.0

Let's see what comes from NYSE, too. GU dead means all GBP trades are being via carries so far - even with Euro going up...

well lets see what happens at 6am we should see little movement but that should give us a signal for the ny open
  • #2,168
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:21am Mar 29, 2007 2:21am
Quoting fxtrader06
well lets see what happens at 6am we should see little movement but that should give us a signal for the ny open
you got it...

little impact in the 8:30 GMT news, though (4:30 EST)
  • #2,169
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:56am Mar 29, 2007 3:56am
Quoting fxtrader06
I have a banker friend at bank of america she says their going long at to day pivot wich is 229.77 tp at 231.44
According to my fib lines, 229.77 is very close to the 23.6 line and 231.44 is the 61.8 retrace from yesterday's move. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.................
  • #2,170
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:00am Mar 29, 2007 4:00am
Is your banker friend a good trader? Does she live a nice life working for a bank? I am sure she is a fine trader. Where did she advise placing your risk in the unlikely event she is wrong. Where are you supposed to take profit and what time horizon is the trade designed for?
  • #2,171
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:25am Mar 29, 2007 6:25am
with the news this afternoon (Arizona time) looking good for the yen, why would you start more longs? I was just wondering........
  • #2,172
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:55am Mar 29, 2007 6:55am
Quoting chokenyou
with the news this afternoon (Arizona time) looking good for the yen, why would you start more longs? I was just wondering........
Moment now is cash flowing in relation to risk perception. Risk related pairs are favoured, so the money is flowing via them.

Speculation pairs are in "stop hunting to buy the lunch" mode until dust settles - Iran crap, US slow down risk, worldwide stocks not picking up high volumes yet, so forth.

So JPY positive news is likely to trigger speculative moves that will vanish at the second M15 candle. Then carry trades get back in.

FX spot is also starting new FY already, so funds are flowing in via carry trade already.

No donuts for speculative pairs for days.
  • #2,173
  • Mar 29, 2007 7:36am Mar 29, 2007 7:36am
Hi Islander and all.....

New to the forum and reading this great post. My question though is in regards to the moving averages. I have them set as exponential on the trader, but changing to simple makes quite a difference on the 4 hr chart. Should I just stay with exponential?

Thanks.
  • #2,174
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:27am Mar 29, 2007 8:27am
Quoting tycan
Hi Islander and all.....

New to the forum and reading this great post. My question though is in regards to the moving averages. I have them set as exponential on the trader, but changing to simple makes quite a difference on the 4 hr chart. Should I just stay with exponential?

Thanks.
Hi Tycan...yes, changing from an EMA to an SMA will make a difference which will be greater the longer the TF. Also in Meta 4 there are a number of other variables than you can use.

For me, the 200EMA of the close is the bell weather MA, I use it on all TFs from 1 min to monthly ...where is price in relation to the 200EMA....above, below, by how much, is the EMA sloping - a lot, a little, is it flat etc. Put it up, expand your history and scroll back as far as you can go then walk slowly forward learning to interperate the relationship of price with this EMA.

I also use it to compare the relative position of different pairs.

You can do the same with a couple of shorter EMAs too.

Basically it comes down to doing some experimentation - and you may prefer an SMA - and then learning how price of the pair that you are trading reacts around the MA. I find it very helpful. Good luck.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,175
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:32am Mar 29, 2007 8:32am
Thanks so much..........will give it a try and learn from your advice. Best, regards.
  • #2,176
  • Mar 29, 2007 9:04am Mar 29, 2007 9:04am
Marc Faber, a money manager based in Copenhagen, gave a Bloomberg interview this morning expressing concern regarding the US Equity markets. He cited weak financial stocks, higher oil prices, inflationary concerns, and weakening real estate markets as reasons to expect lower US equity prices.

Declines in emerging markets, such as China, would be exaggerated as higher energy costs and sub-prime mortgage defaults will reduce available investment capital. Further, he mentioned tightening global liquidity could hit those emerging markets that benefited from excess liquidity the hardest. The recent inter-market relationship that we have been focusing on is the US equity / carry trade direct correlation. Feb 27th was the day Chinese markets were down 9%, which carried over to US markets, sending the Dow almost 500 points lower. Global money managers who were long the carry trade (AUDJPY, NZDJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY) immediately began liquidating as market volatility is one of the biggest enemies to the carry trade. So if global equity markets have again just rolled over to the downside, we could see more carry trade liquidation going forward in Q2.
  • #2,177
  • Mar 29, 2007 10:50am Mar 29, 2007 10:50am
Thanks Cesar, that is more good info. Did you say you were trading this pair off the Dow index? I know they trend closely but i haven't watched to see how close and if there are any signals for GBP/JPY. Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #2,178
  • Mar 29, 2007 10:55am Mar 29, 2007 10:55am
R1 being taken out... reduced majority of my position from 229.01

little soldiers left for the ride.
  • #2,179
  • Mar 29, 2007 10:57am Mar 29, 2007 10:57am
Quoting pipped oFF
Thanks Cesar, that is more good info. Did you say you were trading this pair off the Dow index? I know they trend closely but i haven't watched to see how close and if there are any signals for GBP/JPY. Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated.
My post at last page:

Quote
Moment now is cash flowing in relation to risk perception. Risk related pairs are favoured, so the money is flowing via them.

Speculation pairs are in "stop hunting to buy the lunch" mode until dust settles - Iran crap, US slow down risk, worldwide stocks not picking up high volumes yet, so forth.

So JPY positive news is likely to trigger speculative moves that will vanish at the second M15 candle. Then carry trades get back in.

FX spot is also starting new FY already, so funds are flowing in via carry trade already.

No donuts for speculative pairs for days.
Money is flowing from carries to stocks ( GJ, UJ, EJ up when stocks up) and vice-versa (GJ, UJ, EJ down when stocks down). That's what carries do... Flow the money in and out
  • #2,180
  • Mar 29, 2007 11:27am Mar 29, 2007 11:27am
Oh yes, I did see that post but skimmed it a bit too fast. The "money flow" is an amazing thing. How soon and fast the carry will unwind again i'm not sure. All the news is making me uneasy. Thanks again for your analysis and keep up the good work.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
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