Swan Encounter

Moved by "Fooled by Randomness" I'll try to apply some of ideas into trading.
Will post some ideas befor and taken trades after, so we can see am I right more than average

The idea is that sometimes fundamentals and price touching SR lines brings overreactions from markets.

First Watched today was USDCHF with it GDP. results wasn't suprising so any spike if happend should be recovered. Additionally daily chart is on top of a range, so ideal for trade would be spike up. As can be seen on the chart nothing happen [white dotted line is a release moment]. No trade.

Next to come:
09:30 GBPUSD
14:00 CADUSD
15:00 USD pairs [JPY, GBP, EUR] [-5.5 - -0.5]
01:30 AUDUSD [-0.1 - 0.4]


PS.
Yellow line is taken from FX 1M Bounce system

GU daily doesen't really gave me any idea about direction.
First thought was that it should go up as it touches bottom of a channel.
Construcion PMI worse than expected however could let this pair depreciate lower [especially that apart of rangy shape of last three months we have four consecutive lower highs on the same chart].

Such view of situation gave me no clue what to do next. Finally I decided to wait for selling oportunity on spike up, what did not happend.
There was buy signal on Stoch RSI and bollinger, which if I took, I would loose 27 pips. I did not trade it, because I wasn't there. Now I canot judge what would I do. So it's no trade or 27 pips loss.

I'm waiting for short oportunity on USDCAD. IT spiked up and rate unchanged and pair on top of channel

Have shortened USDCAD on market price 1.2924 SL 25 TP 94 pips. There was no plain signal to go short, however I'm quite concerned that it's gonna go short.
If I fail, there will be another oportunity around 1.3000

[I've alredy lost 25 while writing]
EDIT: I made terrible mistake