Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

Economic Calendar | Feb 23 - 27 '09:


The week started with couple of important news. EU Business Sentiment came out to be better than expected, and signal a possibility of a bottom in Eur/Usd. US Consumer Confidence, which came out yesterday, was worse than expected, and broke lower of the channel, below 35.

There are several important news coming out tomorrow, and a GDP revision on Friday:


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1. GBP Housing Prices
2. US Durable Goods Orders
3. US Unemployment Claims
4. US New Home Sales
5. US Unemployment Claims
6. JPY Unemployment Rate
7. US GDP

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Eur/Usd

1.2650s will be important to watch for further decline towards 1.2550s. Currently short, but will be on tap.

After the News:

USD Unemployment Claims - Feb 26 '09:

US Unemployment Claims continued to inch higher. The million mark could be here by the end of summer '09.

Here is the trend:

Before the News:

EUR CPI YoY - Feb 27 '09:

Inflation has cooled down in the Euro area since July '08, but still remains higher than most of major economies.

Here is the trend:

After the News:

EUR CPI YoY - Feb 27 '09:


Inflation continues to stay below the ECB's expactations of around 2% YoY. ECB could further cut interest rates if next reading also points to low inflation.



http://www.macropreneur.com/link_ima..._27_eu_cpi.jpg

US Open - Feb 27 '09:

* JPY crosses are oversold from sell offs in Asian and EU sessions, but still have some momentum left to push them lower. Holding Usd/Jpy, Eur/Jpy, Gbp/Jpy ... shorts; targeting 50-100 more pips down.

* Eur/Usd is oversold; could be in for a bounce. Long, targeting 1.27 and above, stops below 1.26.

* Likewise, Usd/Chf is overbought; with potential JPY strength, and Usd weakness in the US session, going short, targeting 1.1650s and 1.16, with stop/reverse above 1.1730s

DOW on the verge of a PANIC!

7000 mark in DOW is VERY crucial!

It marks the bottom for '98 Asian crisis, and '02 bottom, after 9/11 and 2000 Nasdaq crash.

Below 7000 will see market panic, down to 5500 and 4000 mark!

These are unbelievable levels, but ARE REAL

http://www.macropreneur.com/link_ima..._dow_panic.jpg

Week of March 2nd OPEN:

Trends: JPY strength began on Friday, Asian open, is continuing again in early Asian session. Watch for further declines in USD/JPY, GBP/JPY...

USD should also strengthen against majors with JPY gains supporting USD demand.


Week's Catch: Watch for 7000 mark in DOW! Panic lingers below it


Note: Began today at a Forex prediction competition Looking at the 1st spot by the end of the month

Dow is now below 7000 mark; a mark thats we've been talking since mid Fall '08; this is bad. REALLY bad...

March 2nd - Overview of Currency Performance:

JPY has performed the best today, winning against every currency. 2nd place was USD, and surprising, EUR taking 3rd place.

Below is the performance:

Gbp/Aud:

The trend is clearly down for this pair, following GBP's recent declines in last 3-4 sessions:

http://www.macropreneur.com/link_ima...ong_gbpaud.jpg


However, there could be a possibility for a bounce above 2.2. Anybody thinking for a bounce possibility?




http://www.macropreneur.com/link_ima...ort_gbpaud.jpg

Eur/Usd:

Failed to move above the stress levels of 1.27; targeting 1.25 and lower...

what a noisy chart with ugly volume bars! dont you think?

hello obaidah,

which time frame are you looking at? yes, its very ugly if you look at anything < 4 hr.

Daily is silky smooth...

EUR/USD:

In daily view, the drop below 1.40 which began right after new year's is still intact:

EUR/USD update:

We have moved to sub 1.25 levels in Asia today. If we can't move back above 1.26 in 2-3 session, by tomorrow's EU, expecting a sell off towards 1.23.

Currently holding shorts.

March Currency ranking status as of March 3 '09:

March began with strength of USD. As JPY gave away its Monday gains yesterday, USD takes the lead, as the most winning currency:

http://www.macropreneur.com/link_ima...test/3_3_9.jpg

Interesting post.
I have been expecting USDCHF to fall but it's keeping on going north.
To what level do you think it can go before falling?
Thanks

I believe that 1.1600 is important to follow, for a sign of reversal. As long as the pair stays above, 1.1950s-1.20 is the target.

Yes, the currency ranking is interesting to follow

GBP/USD Update

Resistance above 1.41 acting firmly. If we stay below 1.4150s, expect a sell off towards 1.39 area.