From 10k to 1 million...

hi Xaron,

hope you don't mind asking me about your 'fundamentals'.

Personally I don't bothered about them too much and the closes I came to it would be some kind of 'carry trading' based on interest decisions.

Otherwise I'm more of an intra day trader.

Xaron - would you not say that trading based on fundamentals is basically a 'more long term' trading method?

i'll be watching you Xaron, because i'm also on the same quest, although i'm in with a different sum.

i also don't use indicators, only heiken ashi(if you consider it an indicator, i don't) and very very rarely i take a look at 2 emas.

good luck, and may the next 10 years be profitable !

Xaron,

You've got the right idea here, inside bars are powerful and they are one of my favorite trading strategies. The power of the inside bar is infinite yield, and risk-reward ratios in excess of 1:10. Of course, not every IB will give this result. The trick is to identify the ones that won't look back. To do this, you must learn to spot volatility. Volatility favoring inside bars will occur under these conditions:

News
Strong high time frame S/R such as pivots, fibs, etc
Strong confluence between fibs, pivots, S/R
Historical S/R breaks...all time high/lows, major round numbers
Monday London session

Note this Euro IB example I traded. Price was stalling at a major downtrend line so I placed a long bracket on the IB right at the trendline for about a 35 pip risk. I covered the trade somewhere in the pin bar that formed at 1.3330 for about 9 times my risk. If you're patient and wait for the stars to line up on the high time frames, you could get trades that don't look back for months and pay out hundreds of times what you risk. Those opportunities only happen a few times a year, but they can change your life. If you're really feeling adventurous, you can learn to look for them on the 5 min chart

Good luck with your endeavor, wish you all the best.

Good luck!

pop

Hi Xaron, just wondering if you looking to add to your position @ this lvl? would seems like a plan with good risk reward

hope your feeling better

regards

Icarus

Xaron, sorry to hear of your illness, glad to hear your on the road to 100% recovery. Have tried a 1hr, 4hr and daily IB system using your seq_1.2 with a 7 long sequence with great success. That took up to much of my time so I evolved (hopefully) to running YOUR seq_1.2 on the 4 majors 24/5. For the last 12 trading days I'm up 100% on my account. The daily IB system I'm still playing with.

Won't go into any more details unless you are interested. I will say I'm constantly using YOUR seq_1.2 on systems I play. Indicators lag and are just confusing on the charts, price with a semi-martingale is the way to go for me. Best to you and yours Xaron.......

Thanks guys, very kind of you! Yes I feel better and continue on monday.

@qz10cq: Very interesting, I've thought of this as well. Do you use the 4:1 ratio (equivalent to TP: 40, SL: 10) or do you use another one?

Kind regards - Xaron

Xaron, I use a TP: 110, SL: 55, (2:1). Numbers are .1, .15, .23, .34, .51, .77, 1.15 ( -3.25 lots and of course +110 at any level ). I have found that lower SL's give me the biggest DD. I use your seq with a basket approach with all pairs under 10 spread, SL 55, TP 1000 and close all with an ea at a certain profit. I use a 4hr breakout seq on the 4 majors with the take profit EA. I've got much more on your EA, I have found your seq_1.2 to be the be the best I've come across period, your ea blows away my fapturbo and several others. Don't want to hi-jack your journal but this is your ea (for those that don't know), just wish I could get your gray matter wrapped back around your seq ea. You left a lot on the table with sequencer 1.2. Best to you and yours....Dan

Hi all,

I'm back at the desk, feeling better now. Thanks for all wishes and thoughts!

As I mentioned I'll trade this account discretionary now, so with a mix of fundamentals and simple technical trendlines. My strategy is simple: I use low leverage, a trade can have several entries (cost averaging) and I usually don't use hard stops - only mental ones.

I will post my view of the market from time to time - sometimes daily, sometimes weekly. Of course my view won't be correct always and of course there will be losses - those things are part of the game...

My view of the market will always contain some review, analysis and so on. Maybe one note to the "median grid" you will see here: This is my comfort zone, my range where I place my trades. The strategy I use works both in ranges and trends - as long as my directional view is correct.


Review

My account low was at about 8,650 Euro as I stopped the mechanical system. Currently I'm back at about 8,900 with some positions under water.

There haven't been so much changed in the last weeks. We are in a huge range in most of the currencies, the Dollar is seen as the "safe heaven" currency, so everytime risk aversion comes back, the Dollar rallies.


Analysis

Important week for the Euro and the british pound as both the ECB and the BOE will make rate decisions. The ECB is expected to cut another 50 bps. I think that will happen but the ECB won't got the ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) path of the FED because they know about the inflationary risks. The ECB stated that they don't see the potential to lower the rates much below 2% so this might be the final cut.
For the BOE I'm sure they will follow the holy (wrong) path of the FED to zero.

The Dollar will be weaken, the only question is when? As long as the banks just hord the money nothing will change, but as soon as they start to invest it again (and they simply can't sit on it forever because it is no option for them) the Dollar will lose ground. I expect that to start next quarter or summer at latest. I see the biggest potential in the Aussie because they have a stable economy and won't cut their rates so much anymore (plus the RBA already did some intervention to keep the Aussie above 0.6000) and the NOK because they have oil (the price won't remain such low forever) and they have solid economy and are not so badly affected by the subprime crisis.
In the Euro I think we might see a test of the lows around 1.23. Actually I can't imagine a break through that support as long as we don't see any new REAL problems in the EU beside all rumors. The Dollar is overbought and one must consider that it's hard to find new buyers for the Dollar at these levels with the background of a huge deficit and the only option of the FED to print money.


Median Grid

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: neutral
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

AUD/USD

Currently long with two positions around 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000. Target for one part: 0.6800

EUR/USD

On friday I entered a first long at 1.2625. I will add to that long position around 1.23/4. Target: 1.29

USD/NOK

I made a short entry at 6.9500 and will watch this short closely. We have a strong support around 7.30. I won't add more to this position at this time. Target: 6.6500

Gold

Entered a long at 963 after a pullback from the 1000 level. I think we will leave the 1000 level behind and continue to raise as soon as the Dollar starts to weaken. I'll add to that long around 850. Target: 990.


Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.26246
27-Feb-09 SELL 10,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978


Leverage: 3.6


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6380
EUR/USD 1.2620
GBP/USD 1.4280
USD/CHF 1.1710
USD/JPY 97.60
Gold 952
Oil 44.30
Dow Jones 6970


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 8,944.22 (-10.56%)
Account equity: 8,544.63 (-4.47%)

Xaron, please be careful about your average down position...... don't try to catch a falling knife!

Thanks for the warning. Looking at the charts I don't see a falling knife anymore. I think we have a very solid support around 1.25 but I'm ready to close my position with a loss if my view is wrong.

I have lowered my target for the EUR/USD long position to 1.2780.

The RBA didn't cut the rate tonight, that was a surprise as the market did expect a 25 bps cut. Anyway the australian economy isn't that much affected by the subprime stuff so this could support the Aussie.

Target for the first long is 0.6590, for the second one 0.6800

Interesting to me is that the Dow went south heavily yesterday but this doesn't mean automatically that the USD gets stronger like seen in the past months. This could be a turning point as risk aversion doesn't necessarily mean Dollar strength any more. We will see...

Review

US pending home sales dropped by -7.7% (expected: -3.0%). Wow, that was huge! The old risk aversion theme kicked in again and the Dollar was bought as there would be no tomorrow... The Dow went down as well but recovered a bit and closed with a small loss.


Analysis

The Euro was well below the 1.25 handle and I have to watch it closely because a break of the old lows around 1.23/4 could create a massive technical push down to the next support around 1.18. Currently the Euro trades again above 1.25. I think we won't see a big movement until the rate decision tomorrow.


Median Grid

No change but I might have to rethink about my long bias in the EUR/USD

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: neutral
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

AUD/USD

Currently long with two positions around 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000.
Targets: 0.6590; 0.6800
EUR/USD

On friday I entered a first long at 1.2625. I will add to that long position around 1.23/4 but watch it closely and be ready to close it if the support breaks down. Target: 1.2780

USD/JPY

I think about to add a short around 98.50-99.00.

USD/NOK

I made a short entry at 6.9500 and will watch this short closely. We have a strong resistance around 7.30. I added a new short at 7.2372 but will keep a close look at the resistance at 7.30. Target: 6.6500

Gold

Entered a long at 963 after a pullback from the 1000 level. I think we will leave the 1000 level behind and continue to raise as soon as the Dollar starts to weaken. I'll add to that long around 850. Target: 990.

Oil

Not tradeable at Oanda but I added a long in another account. The area around 35-40 seems to be rocksolid.


Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.26246
27-Feb-09 SELL 10,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978
04-Mar-09 SELL 10,000 units USD/NOK @7.23724


Leverage: 4.8


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6350
EUR/USD 1.2520
GBP/USD 1.4030
USD/CHF 1.1810
USD/JPY 98.50
USD/NOK 7.2200
Gold 913
Oil 42.80
Dow Jones 6740


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 8,946.58 (-10.53%)
Account equity: 8,193.58 (-8.41%)

Review

I sold my second USD/NOK position with a nice profit right before the ADP number which were pretty bad. Might be an awful sign for the NFP on friday. Nevertheless the stock markets rallied a bit but this might be only a technical correction.


Analysis

Important rate decisions today so I don't expect any heavy movements until then. Both ECB and BOE are expected to cut 50 bps. Regarding the ECB I'm not so sure, I expect more a 25 bps cut - might be the final one, because the monetary policy of the ECB is quite orthogonal to the FED one.


Median Grid

No change but I might have to rethink about my long bias in the EUR/USD

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: neutral
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

AUD/USD

Currently long with two positions around 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000.
Targets: 0.6590; 0.6800

EUR/USD

No change, still one position.
Target: 1.2780

USD/JPY

I've added a small short yesterday at 98.71.

USD/NOK

No change, still one position open.
Target: 6.6500

Gold

No change.
Target: 990.

Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.26246
27-Feb-09 SELL 10,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978
04-Mar-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/JPY @98.712


Leverage: 4.1


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6420
EUR/USD 1.2590
GBP/USD 1.4150
USD/CHF 1.1750
USD/JPY 99.4
USD/NOK 7.0700
Gold 914
Oil 45.10
Dow Jones 6800


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,037.87 (-9.62%)
Account equity: 8,576.69 (-5.10%)

I guess it's time to post my transaction logs again.

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_050309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_050309.png

Last transactions (I've marked the change to my discretionary style with a red line where my last trade from the mechanical approach had been closed):

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_280209_1.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_280209_2.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_280209_3.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_040309.png

A few bars can tell nothing mate. IMHO, technical speaking, if it falls below 0.6250 definitely not a good sign for your positions.

Good morning!

Review

I did some trades yesterday. First I closed half of my remaining USD/NOK short position with a loss (covered by the win of yesterday) to lower the risk because my initial position might had been too big.

Then I closed my long EUR/USD with a small loss and went short at 1.2596 but closed that too early around 1.2560 and went long there again after the rate cut of 50 bps because the Euro did not want to go down. Well it went down later at the Trichet speech and I was a bit disappointed that I closed my short to early...

I closed my USD/JPY short with a mini win as well because I did not feel comfortable with my long Yen view anymore. Locking now at the prices, well...

The Dow took another dive mainly because of GM and risk aversion came back, Gold is up again. But the big picture continues to change as risk aversion doesn't necessarily mean Dollar strength anymore. Good!


Analysis

Both rate cuts yesterday were 50 bps as expected. As those cuts were priced in not much had happened after that. But Trichet took the Euro to the woodshed by talking about risks and so on (like usual).

Nevertheless the 1.25 did hold again. This supports my view of a solid bottom here.


Median Grid

No change.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: neutral
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

AUD/USD

Currently long with two positions around 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000.
Targets: 0.6590; 0.6800

EUR/USD

I went long yesterday again (after a short intermezzo with a short position) at 1.2564
Target: 1.2780

USD/JPY

I've closed my short with a very small win.

USD/NOK

Lowered my position size, still a half position open.
Target: 6.6500

Gold

No change.
Target: 990.

Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.26246
27-Feb-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978
05-Mar-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.25640


Leverage: 3.1


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6430
EUR/USD 1.2640
GBP/USD 1.4220
USD/CHF 1.1550
USD/JPY 97.60
USD/NOK 7.0700
Gold 940
Oil 44.10
Dow Jones 6620


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 8,967.79 (-10.32%)
Account equity: 8,792.68 (-1.95%)

Current account:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_060309.png

Open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_060309.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...ons_050309.png

Good morning! A short one today:

Review

On friday I closed my EUR/USD long with a nice profit around 1.27 and entered again with a smaller position around 1.2690. NFP figures were extremely bad but the Dollar got punished surprisingly. Actually this could be another sign that the "old" fundamentals start to work again.


Analysis

Nothing new here. Today almost no news.


Median Grid

No change.

AUD/USD: 0.6000 - 0.7000; directional bias: long
EUR/USD: 1.2300 - 1.3000; directional bias: sideways to slightly long
USD/JPY: 90.00 - 100.00; directional bias: neutral
USD/NOK: 6.5000 - 7.3000; directional bias: sideways to short
Gold: 800.00 - 1000.00; directional bias: long


Plan

AUD/USD

Currently long with two positions around 0.6570 and 0.6400. I'll add more longs the way down to 0.6000.
Targets: 0.6590; 0.6800

EUR/USD

I have 5k units long at 1.26923 and added another 5k at 1.26378 right now. I don't have a clear target yet, still watch the charts...

USD/NOK

No change.
Target: 6.6500

Gold

No change.
Target: 990.

Open trades

11-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.65711
25-Feb-09 BUY 4 units XAU/USD @963.700
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units AUD/USD @0.64039
27-Feb-09 BUY 10,000 units EUR/USD @1.26246
27-Feb-09 SELL 5,000 units USD/NOK @6.94978
06-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.26923
09-Mar-09 BUY 5,000 units EUR/USD @1.26378


Leverage: 3.1


Prices

AUD/USD 0.6410
EUR/USD 1.2660
GBP/USD 1.4080
USD/CHF 1.1600
USD/JPY 98.60
USD/NOK 7.0700
Gold 935
Oil 45.00
Dow Jones 6660


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 9,075.28 (-9.25)
Account equity: 8,784.10 (-3.21%)