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Silent Service Method

  • #121
  • Mar 2, 2009 1:43pm Mar 2, 2009 1:43pm
Is there a point where past data serves no purpose in your
analysis, Clock?

Do you stick with a pre-defined window and let past data
fall off?

Your reply to Rabid prompted my question (not to say that
the swing low was far in the past - just made me wonder how
far back you go).

Thanks!

Nice thread!
  • #122
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:05pm Mar 2, 2009 2:05pm
All bars on a chart mean something. They are simply measures of crowd psychology. Price Action is simply an extension of it.

So when you look at a chart, what is it that you see? Do you see "magical" bars that tell you when a reversal is coming? If so, why? This is a question that is at one time simple, and another time complex.

I have stated that the why isn't as important as the what. I still think this, but the truth is you need to ask the right questions. If you ask the big/important questions, you get the big/important answers. Most people don't bother. (This is true in life and trading.)

For example, if someone told you that you had two questions to ask and were able to get the answer....no matter what.....what questions would you ask? I would ask the following:

Is there life after death?
Is there life on other worlds?

Think about it, if we knew the answer (positively) to either or both of those questions, the implications would be enormous.

Most people would ask something unimportant, like "Where's the Euro going to be trading tomorrow?"

So I am going to ask some questions about the one bar everyone knows - the Pinnochio Bar. (Or "Pin Bar") I first came across this formation in the before mentioned Pring on Price Patterns book.

So what does it mean? It means a reversal from (hopefully) a support and resistance area. It shows a complete and strong reversal of a push in pricing. It also shows that even with the sudden push in orders, it is not enough to take out the longer-term orders and opinion. It shows (in the case of the two charts below) that the amateurs are buying it up, as the pros are willing to sell them as much as they want to buy. It shows conviction for the sellers, and lack of conviction for the buyers.

This is very important to understand.
I hope these two charts get you thinking a little.

Clockwork
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  • #123
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:07pm Mar 2, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Is there a point where past data serves no purpose in your
analysis, Clock?

Do you stick with a pre-defined window and let past data
fall off?

Your reply to Rabid prompted my question (not to say that
the swing low was far in the past - just made me wonder how
far back you go).

Thanks!

Nice thread!

I have found that past price levels actually work. A perfect example was watching the AUD/USD go over .80 several months back - It was a 16 year high....and it fought and fought and fought until it finally gave in. After that it was a straight shot up for quite some time.

Clockwork
  • #124
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:53pm Mar 2, 2009 2:53pm
Quote
I don't anticipate anymore, it only leads to losses.

Well, trying to clarify entry a bit. You wouldn't take the breakout, but if it broke out and price action came back up then off the level in a "kiss" type setup (like a PB off the level from the bottom), you might consider it... or?

I'm not saying that you'd buy off the bottom (without confirmation that's suicide anyway), I'm wondering if there's a point where you'd sell off the bottom as a breakout.
  • #125
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:58pm Mar 2, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting Rabid
Well, trying to clarify entry a bit. You wouldn't take the breakout, but if it broke out and price action came back up then off the level in a "kiss" type setup (like a PB off the level from the bottom), you might consider it... or?

I'm not saying that you'd buy off the bottom (without confirmation that's suicide anyway), I'm wondering if there's a point where you'd sell off the bottom as a breakout.
Yes there is. I took a short that exact way today in a stock called SPG. However, that's a bit trickier, an advanced. I will get to it in time.

Clockwork
  • #126
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:45pm Mar 2, 2009 3:45pm
Ill say GJ long.........
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forexflash
  • #127
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:13pm Mar 2, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting FOREXflash
Ill say GJ long.........
I would wait to see what happens with that fat pinbar. If it breaks to the downside, that's pretty bearish. I wouldn't be in this trade until we see what happens with it.

I react, not anticipate.

Clockwork
  • #128
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:21pm Mar 2, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting FOREXflash
Ill say GJ long.........
What is your entry price on long gy and where do u think tp??
Thanks
  • #129
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:57pm Mar 2, 2009 4:57pm
Hi Clockwork,

Is this going to be the same system as the videos you have posted on the private J16 thread?

Would you say I've plotted the "zones" correctly? Is there any you would remove or add?

Thanks,
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  • #130
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:19pm Mar 2, 2009 5:19pm
Quote
Yes there is. I took a short that exact way today in a stock called SPG. However, that's a bit trickier, an advanced. I will get to it in time.

Really? If you don't mind me asking... did you take it on the failed PB or the confirmation (there was a keybar and a PB that "kissed" back towards the range) after the range breakout?

And what made you choose SPG over others?
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  • #131
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:25pm Mar 2, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting Rabid
Really? If you don't mind me asking... did you take it on the failed PB or the confirmation (there was a keybar and a PB that "kissed" back towards the range) after the range breakout?

And what made you choose SPG over others?
It was based upon a shorter time frame than the one you posted. But it had a gap down move at the open, and retraced, and took off (down) again.....a classic move.

It was major support at that area.

Simon Property Group is a property company that does a ton of malls. The consumer isn't spending and retail stocks are already beat up. Who's next? Well if the stores are closing, guess who isn't getting their rent? The commercial property owners.

In a bizarre twist of irony, the first time this chart came to my attention was at Tuttle Crossing Mall. One of SPG's malls.

This is the second time I have shorted this stock in the recent past.

Clockwork
  • #132
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:26pm Mar 2, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Clockwork,

Is this going to be the same system as the videos you have posted on the private J16 thread?

Would you say I've plotted the "zones" correctly? Is there any you would remove or add?

Thanks,

Yes and no....it will be some of the same, some different.

As far as the zones....yes kinda. But to be honest, when a pair is this crappy (not paying attention it at the moment.) I tend to ignore all but the most important areas.....like the recent top.....
  • #133
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:31pm Mar 2, 2009 5:31pm
i have the answer to your 2 questions and yes there is life after death and no there is not life on other worlds. but we need then to answer the question what is life after death and to me the answer based on evidential fact is those who have a relationship with god in this life will experience one after death but those that dont wont though they will exist so then there is a difference between existence and life hope this helps you make the correct analysis for the long term
  • #134
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:33pm Mar 2, 2009 5:33pm
Quote
It was based upon a shorter time frame than the one you posted. But it had a gap down move at the open, and retraced, and took off (down) again.....a classic move.

Gap open-test-drive... Yes, I know that pattern well, lol. Gaps are one of my favorite setups. Didn't know you traded that way tho.
  • #135
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:12pm Mar 2, 2009 6:12pm
Morning,

Just a quick question how do you figure out when the fade is turning into a breakout. This is something that a lot of us over on the No Brainer thread constantly battle with.


Today for instance 1.2512 coming up on Euro. My first reaction is to put in a long order around that level but of course nothing is for sure in this game. Just wondering how you deal with these kinds of set ups which breakout against your position. Take the loss and wait for the next one? Or jump on board for the ride?
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  • #136
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:20pm Mar 2, 2009 6:20pm
In response to Rabid's post above, I thought now would be a decent time to write about this.

"You need to know the pitch that's being thrown to you."

Trading is similar to batting in baseball. (or cricket for that matter) The pitcher throws a pitch to you. However, not all pitches behave the same. Sometimes you are swinging defensively. Sometimes you are trying to knock it out into the outfield, and cause a fly ball that gives a runner enough time to make it home, or the next base.....

Sometimes, it tees up for a home run though. The point it that not all pitches are potential home runs.

Also, you have to recognize two things:

1 - What type of environment are we in?

2 - What type of environment am I comfortable in?

The answer to question 2 is one of the most important questions you can ask yourself. Some traders are very comfortable trading consolidating markets. Some like trend trading. Others scalp. Some people are gap traders.

If you are good, you can do a couple of different types of trading. However, you need to know your comfort level, and what you are relaxed doing. The reason? Simple. If you are not comfortable in a trade, you will cut your profits too early. Or possibly not trust your stops and exit with multiple small losses, over and over.

Simply put, not all trades are for all traders. You need to recognize what you feel is "normal" in the market, and take advantage of it. If you don't see one of the trades you like...stay out.

Clockwork
  • #137
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:21pm Mar 2, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting Siam
Morning,

Just a quick question how do you figure out when the fade is turning into a breakout. This is something that a lot of us over on the No Brainer thread constantly battle with.


Today for instance 1.2512 coming up on Euro. My first reaction is to put in a long order around that level but of course nothing is for sure in this game. Just wondering how you deal with these kinds of set ups which breakout against your position. Take the loss and wait for the next one? Or jump on board for the ride?
I use specific bar patterns. But if it goes against me, so be it. I don't flip-flop on trades. Besides, this pair is a mess.....I feel no real need to be involved in it. (Or it's twin-sister USD/CHF)

Clockwork
  • #138
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:23pm Mar 2, 2009 6:23pm
Quoting behman8850
What is your entry price on long gy and where do u think tp??
Thanks
Let's ask a more important question:

Why are we
1 - calling out signals
2- listening to random people on forums as to where to take a trade or exit?

If you want to lose money in the markets, you can do it all on your own, I promise.

Clockwork
  • #139
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:24pm Mar 2, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting clockwork71
All bars on a chart mean something. They are simply measures of crowd psychology. Price Action is simply an extension of it.

So when you look at a chart, what is it that you see? Do you see "magical" bars that tell you when a reversal is coming? If so, why? This is a question that is at one time simple, and another time complex.

I have stated that the why isn't as important as the what. I still think this, but the truth is you need to ask the right questions. If you ask the big/important questions, you get the big/important answers....
I like this as it makes you look at things through a different perspective. I refer to this as market structure. I only understand charts and yours speaks volumes...
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #140
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:36pm Mar 2, 2009 6:36pm
Quote
"You need to know the pitch that's being thrown to you."

ROTFLOL. Ever seen GlenGerry Glen Ross?

At the end of the movie there's a scene where he's calling his manager all sorts of names, then follows up with "You'd know if you ever spent a day in your life. You never open your mouth... till you know what the shot is."

That's been my trading motto for a while now.

Quote
If you are good, you can do a couple of different types of trading. However, you need to know your comfort level, and what you are relaxed doing. The reason? Simple. If you are not comfortable in a trade, you will cut your profits too early. Or possibly not trust your stops and exit with multiple small losses, over and over.

Ugh. Or set your stoploss so insanely tight that it can't handle anything. Yea, I've been there. LOL. Mostly, for me, it's when my required SL would force a higher risk than I'm comfortable with (1% or so).

Quote
Simply put, not all trades are for all traders. You need to recognize what you feel is "normal" in the market, and take advantage of it. If you don't see one of the trades you like...stay out.

Nod. One of the reasons why I trade stocks some, forex just doesn't produce gap trades very often at all (A percentage of the weekends maybe?), so I've had to learn other methods. Which has come to be a big challenge for me, personally. Ie: Waiting and waiting for one of the few setups I know just to trade for a day or 2 seems like a huge waste of time. This has pushed me into learning other setups, and into trading at a smaller TF so I get a level of trading I'm comfortable with.

That, of course, can carry some big problems. It's one thing to know "I don't have to be in the market all the time" and another to be comfortable waiting around for months just to trade.

Quote
Besides, this pair is a mess.....I feel no real need to be involved in it. (Or it's twin-sister USD/CHF)

If you don't mind, how do you determine that "this pair is a mess?" The EURUSD has been consolidating in a "stairstep" lately (almost a triangle), but I've had a few decent scalps in it recently. What does "a mess" mean exactly?
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