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Silent Service Method

  • #101
  • Mar 1, 2009 7:16pm Mar 1, 2009 7:16pm
I have been trading the same way for a while now. If the range is small for the week. I go to the fib extension. I will looking to buy around the 138 fib(-38) Which is in line of a support area 14695
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PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #102
  • Mar 1, 2009 7:50pm Mar 1, 2009 7:50pm
As was asked by someone earlier, I did have several "Ah-ha" moments that changed things around for me. In fact, I still do to this very day. I am not sure, but I think you never really stop having them.

Think of it as different levels of clarity or enlightenment. Same thing really. What I find humorous is that the "better" we become, the more and more simple this really gets.

I cannot tell you how many times I have told my wife about some great revelation I made about trading, only to get the answer: "Uh, yeah....that's kind of obvious." It's a trap that we as traders get sucked into. We try to over-complicate trading, and make it out to be something it really isn't. What's even more embarrassing is that a lot of the time I understand how ridiculous some things are as soon as I say them out loud.

So with that in mind, this is my first "Ah-ha" type posting.

"Never trade a pair if you don't understand the action."

Profound, I know. But to be honest, it took me a while to grasp this concept. You don't have to trade, ever. Your life was fine before this, and you weren't trading then, were you?

If you are having trouble seeing clearly defined support and resistance levels on a chart, I can only say this: "Who Cares?"

Just trade something else. To this day I still get questions about trading a particular chart, even though it's a mess. (Think USD/CHF at the moment.) I actually had to tell someone that I didn't really see a clear direction one way or the other on it. I had to say this a few times before they believed that I really didn't see it. I haven't really been looking at this pair lately. Why bother? I didn't start trading to aggrivate myself.

Besides, why do I care what pair I am trading?

Just remember if you are confused, zoom out a time frame or two. If you still are, then leave it the hell alone. It doesn't matter if you profit in Euros, Pounds, Francs, Dollars or Zlotys.....it all ends up as your deposit currency in the end anyways.

Clockwork
  • #103
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:31pm Mar 1, 2009 11:31pm
Superb thread so far - this has the makings of a great learning tool for anyone taking the time to really understand how a successful trader operates.

Some real gems already in the first few posts and plenty more to come no doubt. Keep 'em coming Clock!

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #104
  • Mar 2, 2009 12:54am Mar 2, 2009 12:54am
Right on the dot....This 110 pip hammer must certainly have blown away more than a few SL . Which goes to show the Early bird doesn't get the worm, in this case it got the wrong end of the shaft.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #105
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:57am Mar 2, 2009 5:57am
Let's not get confused here. S/R lines should actually be called zones. It never really seems to stop to the exact pip, but that doesn't matter. However, sometimes there are areas that are more like walls.....

The following two charts show an example of this. Sometimes you need to zoom out mentally as well to see the big picture.
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  • #106
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:28am Mar 2, 2009 6:28am
Quoting Rastaman
Right on the dot....This 110 pip hammer must certainly have blown away more than a few SL . Which goes to show the Early bird doesn't get the worm, in this case it got the wrong end of the shaft.
@Rastaman: This is not surprising - Sunday gaps usually ( but not always) close quite quickly.

@Clockwork: How did you know I would read this thread. As you know I am a type #2 in your description of the 3 types of trader viewing this thread.

Can't wait for the more advanced stuff!

Green pips to all,
Ian
  • #107
  • Mar 2, 2009 7:04am Mar 2, 2009 7:04am
Quoting damonl
... As for the 10%, if you have a system that wins 50% with a 3:1 risk reward ratio, what's the risk really? ...
@DamonL and CEO
The risk? How about a 1.2% chance of a 80% drawdown within 1,000 trades ?
Doesn't sound too bad does it? - that is until you put in yor real %wins.
Now for a Reward-to-Risk of 3:1 (which is what DamonL means even though he like most quote it the wrong way around) the %wins will be more like 40% for a good system.

Now why do professionals tend to risk < 1% per trade - its because they intend to do many tends of thousands of trades without blowing up.

Just my 2pips worth

Oh and by the way, the most I risk (trading FS and ONS) is 1.5%

Ian
  • #108
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:19am Mar 2, 2009 8:19am
Sorry, there is no free download for this one, but it's a great reference book to have.....

"Martin Pring on Price Patterns"

This book goes into a lot of the price bars used in James16 charting forum. Pring is a master at some of these things.

His book is more focused on stock charts and futures, but it works in any market.

Also, it opens your eyes to the possibility of trading all markets.

You guys knew there were other markets besides Forex, right?

Clockwork
  • #109
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:20am Mar 2, 2009 8:20am
Quoting ianf0ster
@Rastaman: This is not surprising - Sunday gaps usually ( but not always) close quite quickly.

@Clockwork: How did you know I would read this thread. As you know I am a type #2 in your description of the 3 types of trader viewing this thread.

Can't wait for the more advanced stuff!

Green pips to all,
Ian
Ian is correct - Sunday gaps like to close, however....that doesn't mean you should just jump into them.....that is another discussion for later on as to which ones are worthwhile.

Clockwork
  • #110
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:21am Mar 2, 2009 8:21am
Quoting ianf0ster
@DamonL and CEO
The risk? How about a...
Agreed.
  • #111
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:37am Mar 2, 2009 8:37am
Quoting clockwork71
I cannot tell you how many times I have told my wife about some great revelation I made about trading, only to get the answer: "Uh, yeah....that's kind of obvious." It's a trap that we as traders get sucked into. We try to over-complicate trading, and make it out to be something it really isn't. What's even more embarrassing is that a lot of the time I understand how ridiculous some things are...
Clockwork

To the first... We need to start a thread to figure out both How and How Many of our wives are all talking to each other... that was eerie. I thought it was just me.

To the second... still looking for the Cure here as well.

Absolutely enjoying the Bejabbers out of this thread.

Carry on Clockwork... "Run Silent, Run Deep!"
FUBAR...
  • #112
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:55am Mar 2, 2009 8:55am
I just wanted to say THANK YOU for sharing such great information with this forum. I'm going to make it a point that I read this thread everyday. Everything you are sharing I'm going through right now. So I've improved but still have a long way to go but I believe this thread will help cut some of the pain out with the wisdom you are sharing.
  • #113
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:09am Mar 2, 2009 9:09am
Sometimes it's a matter of waiting for that ship to enter the sights of your periscope. This chart shows that there are three possible areas in the box we can look at. We have the top, middle, and bottom.

Not that I always take trend-based trades, but they are the best ones in my opinion. You have momentum on your side as well, normally. If you are a newer trader, the purple box is the only area you should really be interested in. I know it's aggravating to wait, but that's what it takes.

Some brokers allow you to put in alerts that you can get via SMS when price reaches a certain point. There is also a place called http://www.alertfx.com that will do the same if your broker doesn't. (However, it only has about 8 pairs that it tracks.)

My advice? If you are waiting on this pair: Set an alert, go on about your life and wait. When you get your alert, see if there's anything worth trading.....place your trade, set your stops, and go back on about your life.

That's trading.

Clockwork
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  • #114
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:09am Mar 2, 2009 9:09am
Quoting Siuol
I just wanted to say THANK YOU for sharing such great information with this forum. I'm going to make it a point that I read this thread everyday. Everything you are sharing I'm going through right now. So I've improved but still have a long way to go but I believe this thread will help cut some of the pain out with the wisdom you are sharing.
I certainly hope so. Welcome.
  • #115
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:17am Mar 2, 2009 9:17am
Quote
This book goes into a lot of the price bars used in James16 charting forum. Pring is a master at some of these things.

It is an excellent book. I had some confusion with it, however, has his patterns are generally discussed out of context. While he discusses S&R and trendlines, he doesn't put the patterns in the context of price areas... and without that, they fail.
  • #116
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:24am Mar 2, 2009 9:24am
Quoting Rabid
It is an excellent book. I had some confusion with it, however, has his patterns are generally discussed out of context. While he discusses S&R and trendlines, he doesn't put the patterns in the context of price areas... and without that, they fail.

Right, agreed.....but used with the s/r areas I point out in some of these charts - it all comes together quite nicely.

Clockwork
  • #117
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:26am Mar 2, 2009 9:26am
Quoting clockwork71
Right, agreed.....but used with the s/r areas I point out in some of these charts - it all comes together quite nicely.

Clockwork
Nod.

Hey, what do you think of the GBPUSD right now? It's making a move below it's range...
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  • #118
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:53am Mar 2, 2009 9:53am
GbpNzd hits upper weekly trendline. I moved down to the 15M chart, waited for a Fractal breakout south. Set a 120 pip s/l and closed out at 2.8325 for a 435 pip gain....... My other trades ended in small gains so nothing major to reprot there....

I don't usually get to trade these because I work, but now that I am laid off, I am all over them

A very nice monday trade indeed...here is my chart.

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #119
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:55am Mar 2, 2009 9:55am
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah



Quoting ianf0ster
@DamonL and CEO
The risk? How about a 1.2% chance of a 80% drawdown within 1,000 trades ?
Doesn't sound too bad does it? - that is until you put in yor real %wins.
Now for a Reward-to-Risk of 3:1 (which is what DamonL means even though he like most quote it the wrong way around) the %wins will be more like 40% for a good system.

Now why do professionals tend to risk < 1% per trade - its because they intend to do many tends of thousands of trades without blowing up.

Just my 2pips worth

Oh and by the way, the most I risk (trading FS and ONS)...
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #120
  • Mar 2, 2009 11:19am Mar 2, 2009 11:19am
Quoting Rabid
Nod.

Hey, what do you think of the GBPUSD right now? It's making a move below it's range...
What about the swing low?

I don't anticipate anymore, it only leads to losses.

Clockwork
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