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Trading EUR/USD & Majors, Longer Term

  • #81
  • Edited 8:42am Mar 2, 2009 8:26am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting AJspeed
Gonna work from the top end on this trade also. If either hits close out the other.

Sell Limit on USD/JPY at 98.55 with stop at 99.70 and T/P1 at 96.45 and T/P 2 at 94.50

AJ
Hi AJ

What's your reasoning on this potential trade as I have been looking on the charts and what I see is that this pair has been on a LONG since mid December any reason why this pair should start dropping now?

I can see a resistance around 9869 that was tested on 26 Feb, but this could easily be subjected for a break through the resistance. Even a bounce of that resistance, as previously demonstrated on 27 Feb to 9686 (the bottom end resistance) could happen. Which may allow the pair to bounce back up as previously encountered. As this pair seem to have a long term up trend.

but I'll keep an eye out on this and I could potentially see this trade as a future investment I'll probably enter the trade as soon as I see a reversal in the trend patterns above 9855.
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #82
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:37am Mar 2, 2009 8:37am
There is a huge pin on the Daily and pair was severely rejected. I can expect the pair to restest that level again and hence the limit order.

AJ

Quoting deltaworld
Hi AJ

What's your reasoning on this potential trade as I have been looking on the charts and what I see is that this pair has been on a LONG since mid December any reason why this pair should start dropping now?

I can see a resistance around 9869 that was tested on 26 Feb, but this could easily be subjected for a break through the resistance. Even a bounce of that resistance, as previously demonstrated on 27 Feb to 9686 could happen, I can't see this trade reaching the Targets mentioned.
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #83
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:08am Mar 2, 2009 9:08am
Hey guy, One more good reason. I put a lot of weight in the 89 Smooth MA and we are there on the Daily. I don't expect it to get through.

AJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 30 KB
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #84
  • Mar 2, 2009 9:52am Mar 2, 2009 9:52am
39xx looks very real now. I think the floodgates are open. This thing had been building for weeks for a major drop as we talked about earlier. Going long atm would be suicidal.
I need dragon to have clear candle below 135 to have another short lined up. Will be watching this like a hawk.
Thank You
  • #85
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:14am Mar 2, 2009 10:14am
Quoting wormboy
Okay. Target reached. sl for both remaining entries on cable now amended @ 4200. Additional +119 on the green. 39xx looks like a very realistic target now. sl will be amended once she reaches that level.
Good luck

39xx level is now tested. Will amend the sl once it reaches 3920. Daily cci had just crossed -100. There supposedly is no call for bottom when this happens as further drop should take place in days to come. We will see.
Thank You
  • #86
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:18am Mar 2, 2009 10:18am
4hr closed below some KEY support... TIMBER.... Im only in for 3 lots at 1.416 because it has not retraced for me yet.... wonder if it will....

Having trouble deciding a take profit level... 1.37 or 1.39... thoughts?
Dr. C
  • #87
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:25am Mar 2, 2009 10:25am
Quoting cvcamper
4hr closed below some KEY support... TIMBER.... Im only in for 3 lots at 1.416 because it has not retraced for me yet.... wonder if it will....

Having trouble deciding a take profit level... 1.37 or 1.39... thoughts?
Just lock your profits in & ride her whereever she takes you. Daily points down bigtime, but things can change. 3920 is where I will amend my sl. Go any lower than that and I'm not taking anything out until it reaches 36xx. Once that level is reached I will tighten my stops.
But like I said, nothing is certain, just lock your profits in & sit back, enjoy the ride
Thank You
  • #88
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:33am Mar 2, 2009 10:33am
Quoting wormboy
39xx looks very real now. I think the floodgates are open. This thing had been building for weeks for a major drop as we talked about earlier. Going long atm would be suicidal.
I need dragon to have clear candle below 135 to have another short lined up. Will be watching this like a hawk.
You mention that another short is lined up when you have a clear candle below 135.

1. At what time frame are you looking at for this pair
2. What target do you think that this trade would reach?
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #89
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:54am Mar 2, 2009 10:54am
Delta :
1. I only trade off 4hrly & daily. I do use hourly setup, but rarely. So I will pull the trigger once the 4hrly candle clears. I don't think it'll happen today tho, but it doesn't matter. I can wait.
2. Should the candle clear & i take the trade, the only real support i see is at 130.xx. But I don't usually wait that long to lock my profits in.
Thank You
  • #90
  • Mar 2, 2009 11:03am Mar 2, 2009 11:03am
Quoting wormboy
Delta :
1. I only trade off 4hrly & daily. I do use hourly setup, but rarely. So I will pull the trigger once the 4hrly candle clears. I don't think it'll happen today tho, but it doesn't matter. I can wait.
2. Should the candle clear & i take the trade, the only real support i see is at 130.xx. But I don't usually wait that long to lock my profits in.
Thanks wormboy, also I just wanted to clarify on the definition of Candle Clearing

1. does this mean when a candle has opened and closed below 135, but the high could have been above 135

OR

2. that the whole candle (including high/low values are also below 135).
Thank you
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #91
  • Mar 2, 2009 11:12am Mar 2, 2009 11:12am
Sorry about that, it's not a jargon or anything, my mistake.
I'll take the trade when the whole candle clears. But I won't take it if the candle spreads more than 300 pips. Too much risk. I will wait for a pullback. This is when I use the hourly to enter. If assuming the candle spreads more than 300 pips & keep on dropping with no pullbacks, I will stay out & wait for another setup.
Thank You
  • #92
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:47pm Mar 2, 2009 2:47pm
Okay, i'm outta here. My remaining open positions stops aren't yet amended but safe on the green.
Cable sl@4200 still intact
dragon sl @138.5 still intact

We'll see what tomorrow brings. Good nite & good luck
Thank You
  • #93
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:56pm Mar 2, 2009 2:56pm
Hi all!

Over an invitation of mister Wormboy, i'll start posting some idea over this thread.
Jumping from not posting (while trading) to GBP/USD and this long term Cable thread, i'll give simple view of mine.

To make a long story short, i majorly trade from EMA and fibs, whit an Harmonic Pattern view.

For those you don't know what is Harmonic trading you can go over that link that explain all 5 point pattern - XABCD.

http://harmonictrader.com/price_patterns.htm

Here a quick exemple of my analysis of last week over cable from the harmonic view.


I encourage anyone to visit the link from the site to catch to full potential of those pattern.

http://www.harmonictrader.com/gartleybearre.jpg
http://www.harmonictrader.com/3drivesbullre.jpg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-usd 4h gartley.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #94
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:33pm Mar 2, 2009 5:33pm
EUR/USD will probably go to test 2500 and from there we may bounce back to close gap. Being very carefull here. Daily low here with reversal possible anytime now.

AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #95
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:34pm Mar 2, 2009 5:34pm
Been sick, guys. bear with me,
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #96
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:36pm Mar 2, 2009 5:36pm
You may just like this indy.

AJ

Quoting Inzider
Hi all!

Over an invitation of mister Wormboy, i'll start posting some idea over this thread.
Jumping from not posting (while trading) to GBP/USD and this long term Cable thread, i'll give simple view of mine.

To make a long story short, i majorly trade from EMA and fibs, whit an Harmonic Pattern view.

For those you don't know what is Harmonic trading you can go over that link that explain all 5 point pattern - XABCD.

http://harmonictrader.com/price_patterns.htm

Here a quick exemple of my analysis of last week over cable from...
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !ZUP_v.ex4   239 KB | 307 downloads
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #97
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:37pm Mar 2, 2009 5:37pm
Make sure you check allow DLL imports

Quoting AJspeed
You may just like this indy.

AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #98
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:09pm Mar 2, 2009 10:09pm
morning fellas. looks like i'm still in. none of my stops are triggered.
Daily still points down from what I see & 4150 which was the floor before this, is now the ceiling. So I'm looking to add another small position if price reaches there. If not, I'll just ride my remaining positions.
Good luck. AJ, I hope you're feeling better mate. Cheers.
Thank You
  • #99
  • Edited 11:10pm Mar 2, 2009 10:59pm | Edited 11:10pm
Dragon's downmove as you can see from the 4hrly chart is facing rejection at critical levels. It's being stopped smack on my sma which as I said acts as a moving support/resistance, which coincidentally is the 23.6 fibs level ( 23rd January low - 26th February high ).
By looking at the daily, you could see the doubletop formation and where the resistance level is which halted dragon's flight. The hanging man two days ago was the first warning of direction change. At the moment however we are in some sort of predicament Two things could happen.
1. Price close below the trendline [4hr & daily] - all hell breaks loose. Kaaaaaaaamehameha!
2. We get squeezed in that wedge for a few days before a breakout, either to the upside or downside. Which means we might just consolidate for a few days [daily].

Traders who are not yet in positions I think should consider these scenarios before making an entry. I am personally holding short from 139.25 with stop already moved to 138.5. Should I get stopped out, I will wait, weigh all the options & scenarios that had just been mentioned before positioning myself for another entry. Just remember this is a highly volatile pair which has just lost all its correlation with dow jones, cable & usd/yen, & at the moment the ccis on the daily and the 4hrly are pointing at two opposite directions, never a good sign when that happens. Basically it has a mind of its own really So, please be careful, the dragon is a badass pair to trade. Not for the weak of hearts lol. Anyway good luck.
Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dragon4.JPG Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DRAGONDAY.JPG Size: 87 KB
Thank You
  • #100
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:23am Mar 3, 2009 1:23am
Close limit order on USD/JPY
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
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