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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #163,101
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:06am Mar 2, 2009 2:06am
Quoting marcb
Good morning!
I am wndering if ES will crash this week...
what do you think? Do you have any graph on ES?
Thanks!
i'll may post later some chart, but so far, I agree with UKdaytrader, we broke low again, and seams we are drifting slowly to new lows, every day.. for how long?.. well we can guess. we are already on very low levels..

GY goes with YEN futures, and YM together, so this eventualy will affect GY as well.. if we continue to fall to mid 6500 or even lower then 6000 mark, we should see GY at levels lower then 127... [imho]
  • #163,102
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:08am Mar 2, 2009 2:08am
hmm, 4h bull flag? 4h QQE crossed down since last week and ready to cross back up, price is still above 4h 50ema. I'll need to see it below 4h 50ema for more bearishness otherwise if price manages to get back above 4h gann and 4h QQE crosses upwards, then expect high 140s to 150
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #163,103
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:21am Mar 2, 2009 2:21am
Here's why some people think VSA won't work as well in Forex:

http://www.forexspirit.com/2008/03/07/when-volume-lies/

It's not the same as the "dollar volume" in other markets. In Forex it's more like a "tick count". The tick count is fed into volume indicators. But it's like putting water in a tea cup and calling the water tea, just because it's in a tea cup.

Plus that tick count does vary by broker, as others already pointed out. Possibly not by a whole lot, but it does vary. With esignal you get a much better representation, but it's still not the classic dollar volume of the stock market. Luckily the "tick count" (or "tick volume") still works as a good indicator of "activity" or "volatility". That's what's really being used along with PA, in Forex style VSA.

This isn't meant as a put down, by the way. There evidently are people making money with it, and I've been looking into myself lately. I'm just adding a little more info to the mix.
  • #163,104
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:41am Mar 2, 2009 2:41am
I'm expecting cable 1.4200 area to break to the downside, targets being the red arrows. We'll see how it plays out.
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  • #163,105
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:51am Mar 2, 2009 2:51am
Quoting GodfreyH
I'm expecting cable 1.4200 area to break to the downside, targets being the red arrows. We'll see how it plays out.
  • #163,106
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:59am Mar 2, 2009 2:59am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Here's why some people think VSA won't work as well in Forex:
.
, lol mate, I dont know can I explain right but I'll try:

  1. yes, you're right from theoretical point, Volume [apsolute] is not as accurate as Futures or other centralised markets
  2. All we do in Fx market is, that we trade Relative volume, depends of our feed, but more or less they are propotional.. I've traded with eSignal, now I have GAIN (forex.com), Dbfx, and other feeds... even when I compare the volume from eSignal with the volume from any of MT4 players, the difference is small. (in practical way, they are proportional)
  3. VSA is made of 3 components: Spread, candle pattern and Relative volume. So basicly we trade based on candle pattern, spread and then on relative volume (mean relative to other bars.)
  4. Does it works, O yeah, it is.. but I use VSA only as a trigger, I am not entering my trade based on VSA only.. I trade my system, but VSA helps me when to pull the Trigger..

That is my view.. ! (i hope you can understand my Oxford english )...cheers!

  • #163,107
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:13am Mar 2, 2009 3:13am
Quoting Piters
, lol mate, I dont know can I explain right but I'll try:[list][*]yes, you're right from theoretical point, Volume [apsolute] is not as accurate as Futures or other centralised markets[*]All we do in Fx market is, that we trade Relative volume, depends of our feed, but more or less they are propotional.. I've traded with eSignal, now I have GAIN (forex.com), Dbfx, and other feeds... even when I compare the volume from eSignal with the volume from any of MT4 players, the difference is small. (in practical way, they are proportional)[*]VSA is...
Yep, spot on.

I would go one step further; if you are able to read VSA very well, along with the PA itself, it is the only 'indicator' needed.
  • #163,108
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:21am Mar 2, 2009 4:21am
so .... about that geppy ....

big tussle here ... fall and it falls hard i imagine ..
  • #163,109
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:22am Mar 2, 2009 4:22am
looks like we could get a solid 4 hr close below 4hr gann hi/lo
137 will be the deciding factor in the short-run - a break below and 135.50 and 133.50 area is almost a given. . .

however if price regains 140 then the downtrend will be negated. . .
  • #163,110
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:30am Mar 2, 2009 4:30am
Quoting quecee5
looks like we could get a solid 4 hr close below 4hr gann hi/lo
137 will be the deciding factor in the short-run - a break below and 135.50 and 133.50 area is almost a given. . .

however if price regains 140 then the downtrend will be negated. . .
mine is already closed below... we need those Fib levels to clear 138.00/30 so we can test the 137.30, and have some nice pull back from there
  • #163,111
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:39am Mar 2, 2009 4:39am
The 137.70 area served as pretty strong support on the last push down. Breaking that area looks to be imminent and we should see a pretty quick run down to the mid 136s when it is.

I should be getting some sleep, but think I'll wait for this 4hr bar to close...
  • #163,112
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:53am Mar 2, 2009 4:53am
Quoting Piters
mine is already closed below... we need those Fib levels to clear 138.00/30 so we can test the 137.30, and have some nice pull back from there
Hi Piters,
do you think GJ will go to 140 again before touching a135.5?
  • #163,113
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:59am Mar 2, 2009 4:59am
Quoting marcb
Hi Piters,
do you think GJ will go to 140 again before touching a135.5?
only if any intervention: so far with these cards on table.. the game target is to 127.00 [imho]

we have 2 possible supports:

 

  1. 137.50/60 .. LTL on 4h
  2. 137.20 DS1 and 4h ema

  • #163,114
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:01am Mar 2, 2009 5:01am
Quoting quecee5
looks like we could get a solid 4 hr close below 4hr gann hi/lo
137 will be the deciding factor in the short-run - a break below and 135.50 and 133.50 area is almost a given. . .

however if price regains 140 then the downtrend will be negated. . .
IBFX H4 already below gann, It is a good sign when London Boys joint bear party
  • #163,115
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:08am Mar 2, 2009 5:08am
Very sexy 4 hour candle closed a bit ago on my charts. Now looking to break the spiked lows of the 136.60 area last week. We're currently well below the 137.70 area and I don't see much in terms of support until 135 or so... can't imagine this being too difficult of a ride down.
  • #163,116
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:25am Mar 2, 2009 5:25am
I was pretty convinced that GBPJPY earlier today would hit 137.70 and tank pretty quickly after that, but it seems to be sticking around this support.

Perhaps the Global safe haven of the Yen is diminishing along with the Japanese economy.

I am starting to think that maybe there could even be a turnaround in the not too distant future.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #163,117
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:28am Mar 2, 2009 5:28am
Quoting PracticalPip
Very sexy 4 hour candle closed a bit ago on my charts. Now looking to break the spiked lows of the 136.60 area last week. We're currently well below the 137.70 area and I don't see much in terms of support until 135 or so... can't imagine this being too difficult of a ride down.
are we bouncing off already. is it time to close shorts?
  • #163,118
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:29am Mar 2, 2009 5:29am
Weird ... dow futures hitting lows, gu and gj rallying easily through that .70 SR zone .. kinda makes it invalid - or not very strong zone ?
  • #163,119
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:38am Mar 2, 2009 5:38am
Quoting pipmyride
Weird ... dow futures hitting lows, gu and gj rallying easily through that .70 SR zone .. kinda makes it invalid - or not very strong zone ?
YM [futures] hit DS2 = 6900, so some bounce is to be expected.. from the other side, have a look where Gy is sitting, on 50ema [4H], + TL + DS1.

We should go Up to 138.70, but the only one thing keeping us Down is YM [DOW]



big picture:
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  • #163,120
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:55am Mar 2, 2009 5:55am
shorts, be careful we may bounce a litlle from here
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