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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #163,061
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:34pm Mar 1, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting pkimnyc
lol. i had 64.xx, but never posted here. thought i was gonna get beat up.

strangely enough i really don't see that as so farfetched. Monthly UJ chart shows a long term downward triangle from the first peak (144-145) back in July 1998 with the base around the 100-101 area. The break of the base happened when UJ broke 100 to the downside. Darryl Guppy always postulates that a broken triangle has a target equal to the height of the triangle from the base, which in essence would projected UJ to around 58.

This is of course ruling out intervention. Got no idea when the BoJ will draw a line in the sand.
  • #163,062
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:34pm Mar 1, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting pkimnyc
in very extreme case.....

i'll be happy with 99.xx though. :o
i'd be happy to see 135 tested -
  • #163,063
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:36pm Mar 1, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting Eulogy
strangely enough i really don't see that as so farfetched. Monthly UJ chart shows a long term downward triangle from the first peak (144-145) back in July 1998 with the base around the 100-101 area. The break of the base happened when UJ broke 100 to the downside. Darryl Guppy always postulates that a broken triangle has a target equal to the height of the triangle from the base, which in essence would projected UJ to around 58.

This is of course ruling out intervention. Got no idea when the BoJ will draw a line in the sand.
yeah, i know. it's a bit over stretched. that's why i didn't say anything because i know i was gonna get beat up.

although, this down move may seem like a long one, but it is just a classic ABC wave pattern with dead stop @ 161.8 FE.
which is kind of rare case for geppy for what i have seen. it usually stretches further than that in shorter tf from what i have observed in the past.
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  • #163,064
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:37pm Mar 1, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1/4200 being defended on gu ......

gj not going any where till this breaks down
well if UJ breaks 97.30 support GJ in for a huge drop. . .
  • #163,065
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:43pm Mar 1, 2009 10:43pm
Quoting quecee5
well if UJ breaks 97.30 support GJ in for a huge drop. . .
I am with you

selling every rally right now

just need to see that 1,4200 area cave in on gu

uj has hardly any correlation with the markets going down these days .. so would not count on that

I think the move comes from safe haven USD as indexes move down .

however pros use bads news to buy the dips ,,,, and lets face it HSBC pulling out of US not good news. but we have only moved down 200 pips off Fridays high an mere sneeze for GJ.... and now i see 130 , 125 and 98 ......
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  • #163,066
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:49pm Mar 1, 2009 10:49pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am with you

selling every rally right now

just need to see that 1,4200 area cave in on gu

uj has hardly any correlation with the markets going down these days .. so would not count on that

I think the move comes from safe haven USD as indexes move down .

however pros use bads news to buy the dips ,,,, and lets face it HSBC pulling out of US not good news. but we have only moved down 200 pips...
hope u r right. . . will be building and selling shorts all the way down. . .
  • #163,067
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:51pm Mar 1, 2009 10:51pm
Quoting quecee5
well if UJ breaks 97.30 support GJ in for a huge drop. . .

isn't this pennant a continuation pattern until 137 taken out ?

I am range trading right now as i think we have a ranging market 137 ish to 141 ish

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  • #163,068
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:54pm Mar 1, 2009 10:54pm
This is what I said back on 5th Feb.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=158085

Maybe it doesn't sound like crazy person ramblings anymore with the "Vouch Crew" backing me up.
{Some Profound Statement goes here}
  • #163,069
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:55pm Mar 1, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
isn't this pennant a continuation pattern until 137 taken out ?

I am range trading right now as i think we have a ranging market 137 ish to 141 ish

Attachment
I was wondering whats wrong with GJ today, until I saw this chart

its f**king march 2, the first trading day of a new month

we got to get down to the 61.8 fib and 4 hour is down.
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  • #163,070
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:55pm Mar 1, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am with you

selling every rally right now

just need to see that 1,4200 area cave in on gu

uj has hardly any correlation with the markets going down these days .. so would not count on that

I think the move comes from safe haven USD as indexes move down .

however pros use bads news to buy the dips ,,,, and lets face it HSBC pulling out of US not good news. but we have only moved down 200 pips off Fridays high an mere sneeze for GJ.... and now i see 130 , 125 and 98 ......

aig bail out news will be taken well by the US market tomorrow and reverse all of HSBCs woes ... gj back at 141.5 and everyone will be screaming 160 here we come
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #163,071
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:59pm Mar 1, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting quecee5
agreed but if we see price below 127 area that will be the 1st signal that the uptrend has been violated. . . from there I would look for a decisive break of 125 for a re-test of the lows and perhaps a new low 116!
I'm with you till 127. If UJ break below 90, I will consider we might test 125 again. But now....let we see first 127 (127 Weekly Gann) .
  • #163,072
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:02pm Mar 1, 2009 11:02pm
we moved down 200 pips pff Fridays highs ....

uj being met buyers on every dips

and i see calls of 130 / 120 and 98

????

the theme of gj is sell during asia in to early London ... low volume

the real buyers come in US session .. high vol

no buyers turn up tomorrow then may be I agree with 125

there are signs of distribution between 141 and 137 , but we have to have a solid 4 hour close under 135 before the up trend is done ..The 3 hour looks bearish , the 4 hour has a very convenient ( almost to convenient double top) ... however no real sellers have hit the market yet and we seem to be ranging.. which could also be distribution
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  • #163,073
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:04pm Mar 1, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting bpatto
This is what I said back on 5th Feb.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=158085

Maybe it doesn't sound like crazy person ramblings anymore with the "Vouch Crew" backing me up.
  • #163,074
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:05pm Mar 1, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
we moved down 200 pips pff Fridays highs ....

uj being met buyers on every dips

and i see calls of 130 / 120 and 98

????

the theme of gj is sell during asia in to early London...
careful

excessive scratching may cause baldness
  • #163,075
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:13pm Mar 1, 2009 11:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
aig bail out news will be taken well by the US market tomorrow and reverse all of HSBCs woes ... gj back at 141.5 and everyone will be screaming 160 here we come
Usually i would agree with you that a bailout would cause a rally however this time i think investors are venturing into this one with more caution. The first 2 times they did it, wasn't surprised there was a rally especially back then, Liddy was jawboning everyday about selling large chunks of the firm to pay off the US - something along the lines of "a smaller, more nimble company, able to rapidly cope with fast changing market environments". Liddy is now no longer able to hide behind this line since that market liquidity dried up, the share price plummetted, no-one willing to buy parts of the company, and all he's left with is this massive behemoth of a firm that has nothing except taxpayer money and owns a hell of alot of liabilities.

I'm thinking that investors are waking up to the fact that if $150 billion didn't do squat in a bad market, what's an extra $30 billion gonna do in a worse market?
  • #163,076
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:14pm Mar 1, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting Eulogy
Usually i would agree with you that a bailout would cause a rally however this time i think investors are venturing into this one with more caution. The first 2 times they did it, wasn't surprised there was a rally especially back then, Liddy was jawboning everyday about selling large chunks of the firm to pay off the US - something along the lines of "a smaller, more nimble company, able to rapidly cope with fast changing market environments". Liddy is now no longer able to hide behind this line since that market liquidity dried up, the share...
time for a reality check.
  • #163,077
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:17pm Mar 1, 2009 11:17pm
Quoting forexlion
careful

excessive scratching may cause baldness

WHERE ??
  • #163,078
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:17pm Mar 1, 2009 11:17pm
Quoting Piters
WHERE ??
  • #163,079
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:18pm Mar 1, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting pkimnyc
time for a reality check.
More like time to put a lid on Liddy's verbose gob.
  • #163,080
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:23pm Mar 1, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting Eulogy
Usually i would agree with you that a bailout would cause a rally however this time i think investors are venturing into this one with more caution. The first 2 times they did it, wasn't surprised there was a rally especially back then, Liddy was jawboning everyday about selling large chunks of the firm to pay off the US - something along the lines of "a smaller, more nimble company, able to rapidly cope with fast changing market environments". Liddy is now no longer able to hide behind this line since that market liquidity dried up, the share...
let them go bankrupt i say along with any other company that runs itself like a bag of crap ..... better for the US tax payers in the long run ... stop spending so much on war and give that to the US tax payer . If they did that everyone in the US would be millionaires ad the US would not be in this mess

' VOTE THE MILKY BAR KID FOR PRESIDENT' lol
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