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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #1,381
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:33am Mar 28, 2007 1:33am
Firstly, thanks so much everyone for all your comments. There's some really good stuff in there and lots worth thinking about.

I'll try and revisit the individual posts later.

Well, what an interesting start to the new pairs. Firstly, UJ was stopped out for plus 6 pips overnight.

GJ has fallen as I had been looking for and under the 100 pip rule, & I've already moved the stop loss to break even. Methinks, GJ will have a fair few b/e trades as well as round numbers eg +100, +200 etc as it is so volatile.

AUDUSD & NZDUSD have also dropped as expected and the current positions are....

GBPUSD short from 221.60 - currently +109 pips
AUDUSD short from 0.8083 - currently +30 pips
NZDUSD short from 0.7171 - currently +34 pips
GBPUSD short from 1.9692 - currently +52 pips

March pips: +209
Cumulative: +1268

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,382
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:44am Mar 28, 2007 1:44am
Hi Anthony,

Thanks for that - I'm not so sure EU, UCHF & UCAD performed that badly over the 5 months, rather me that made errors here & there trading them. I seem to be able to trade GU & UJ almost without thinking too much which is where I want to be.

Anyhow, good start on the new pairs so far.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting anthonyrae
Hi steve,

I always try and check your journal. Its good to see that you are going to start on new pairs. I think it's good, but I also think maybe you should still record the EUR/U and CHF/U trades as well, because that was your orginial system and perhaps these pairs will improve. You may not have to actually trade them, maybe just record the trades you would have made.

Cheers, Anthony
  • #1,383
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:52am Mar 28, 2007 1:52am
Hi IS,

As always, great post & plenty to think about.

I think you hit the nail on the head with your comment about volatility - as long as I can cope with the odd bigger loss, GJ gives my system enough room to be able to pick up pips in the ranging as well as trending periods. A little like GU in that respect.

Just trying to get a mix of currencies that won't all be choppy at the same time, hence the Aussie & Kiwi additions.

I'm still testing both me & my method but I like to do things methodically so I can see results over a reasonable period of time.

Reading through your post again, my answer doesn't really do it justice but I've only just got up lol.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting ItalianSharp
Hi Steve

I read about your latest changes to your currency pair mix. Unfortunately it's been a while since I've looked at a FOREX chart, I usually follow EUROFX futures and this is pretty much it. Hence, I can't provide you with my feedback about the old pairs or new pairs.

What I can provide you with, instead, is a general idea about trading.

Try to analyse your system and determine the best conditions under which it performs.

As far as I understand, your system works magic under trending conditions and struggles in choppy tight ranges, like most of the systems out there I shall say.

I believe all financial instruments have their trending days and ranging days, it's the nature of the markets and we must deal with it.

Yet, some financial instruments are more volatile and during their ranging times they still produce mini-trends that can give you enough wiggle room to have small losers, break even trades and even decent winners.

For example, my trading style doesn't match very well with low-volatility instruments, such as the S&P for instance. I do much better trading Russell 2000, DAX, or Dow Jones. Simply because the nature of my system and my personality requires that I trade highly volatile instruments.

What's the nature of your system and personality?

GBPJPY is a very volatile market for what I remember about it. Large spread and huge swings. The thing you need to ask yourself is: is it worth it? And how would my system perform when GBPJPY is in a tight range?

Don't change instruments only because one market is currently trending more than another. You know better than me that conditions change on a daily basis, and the risk is that you could find yourself dropping pairs that are about to explode and taking on others that are about to die out.

What I believe is a smart thing to do is to distribute your currency risk evenly amongst pairs. Like Isotonic said, you were a bit dollar heavy in my opinion.

In summary, trade those pairs that constantly reproduce the best trading conditions for your system and your style. Trend doesnt matter here. All markets trend at some point. I am talking about pure price action.

If GBPJPY falls into your favorite category, then trade it. Same with other pairs.

Cheers
  • #1,384
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:01am Mar 28, 2007 2:01am
Hey Xerof

Thanks for this - I've been reading your blog with interest and your results so far seem to be better than mine hehe.

I like the way you have explored different pairs and this was one of the reasons I've been seriously been looking at changing the pairs.

The 12 month plan, discipline & patience are all still there, just mixing up the currency pairs to see if I can trade the 3 new ones better. I get a feel for GU & UJ & hopefully I can too with the replacements.

Kind Regards
Steve


Quoting Xerof
Stevie!!! What's happened to the 12 month plan, with discipline and patience...


But seriously, I'm not averse to change and you've beaten me to the gun anyway, as I had committed to myself to revisit the pairs at the end of this month. I'll be making some decisions over the weekend on whether to make any changes personally, and/or even some tweaks to the rules....maybe

As you know from my blog, I am currently allocating (a mere) 0.5% of risk capital to each of the five pairs (plus the extra four that I am demo-ing). To make this clear for readers, this means trade sizes differ each time, depending on the initial distance to stop from entry.

What is really interesting is how the $ returns compare to the pips made or lost, and I have to say, just looking at pip results is very deceiving.

I know its only for a month, but here's my pip count for the main 5 pairs, compared with a (notional) $ return for closed trades so far this month, and the win/loss counts as well. Notional returns are all converted to USD, to give the true picture, as, of course, pips are not equal across the pairs.

GBP/USD ...... +281 pips, +$10.6, 3 wins/3 losses
EUR/USD ...... +5 pips, +$8.7, 2 wins/5 losses
USD/CHF ...... +83 pips, +$5.4, 4 wins/5 losses
USD/JPY ...... -14 pips, +$6.4, 2 wins/5 losses
USD/CAD ..... -11 pips, -$1.0, 3 wins/3 losses

Ok, while I'm at it, here are the other 4 as well.......

AUD/USD ...... +234 pips, +$4.8, 2 wins/2 losses
NZD/USD ...... + 78 pips, +$2.4, 2 wins/4 losses
GBP/JPY ....... + 340 pips, +$5.8, 3 wins,6 losses
EUR/JPY ....... +92 pips, +$4.8, 4 wins, 4 losses

So you can see, the glamour puss of the famous five, Cable, looks great on pips, but compare that to EUR's returns, on only a measly 5 pips.

You can even lose pips on nippy, but make good money!!

And the Loonie isn't a bird - its a dog..... say no more.

Just some food for thought.....

regards

Xerof
  • #1,385
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:35am Mar 28, 2007 2:35am
Hmmm, yes. not a bad idea to use the 100 pip rule on GY.... I had a look back at my trades and if I had used that idea I would have vastly improved the record....I recall one trade where I was short and we had a 500 pip drop, so the stop was 500 pips away for the next session, and .... you guessed it.....I ended up refunding almost all of those to the FX gods


cheers

Xerof
  • #1,386
  • Mar 28, 2007 4:26am Mar 28, 2007 4:26am
Hi everybody,

due the fact, that I am using diferent models with my own modifications (StevieT, Sidus, RSI, Ichimoku, News, Pouria, + fundamental and technical (mainly Fibo), etc) i succeded on 100T demo to get 10.303 pips on March (15 winning days, 5 losing days), same 5 pairs, that are used by Stevie. February it was only 515 pips, but I closed to many open positions to early (discipline, discipline, discipline), so in 02/07 potential pips were around 9.600. So for March I decide not to close to early, and it works.

I know, that something is wrong, because 100% per month is not good. Yea, this month nonfarm was almost 1.500 pips, but anyway, something smells.

This is demo, and I do not have enough time so I decided yesterday (as already mentioned, by Isotonic) that there is some kind positive/negative correlations between pairs used by Steve, that it is time to concentrate only for one/two pairs.

EUR/USD and USD/CHF are negative correlated, some people used them for hedging, so it is useless to have both of them. On VT trader is possible to open position in both direction, so EU a UCH I use just on Oanda.

CAD to slow, JPY to distant, or I use USD/JPY just for overnight operation (I live in Slovakia), so it is fun, that sometimes I got pips just for sleeping..

so I decided to use just EUR/USD and GBP/USD (there are positive correlated), so by the end I will probably stay with GBP/USD.

Stevie, IMHO I would stay with schedule for 12 months, 5 months is not enough and diversification is good, but if you do to many things together, I do nothing good. I will follow your journal, and I wish you good luck.

Tonko

P.S. I think, that in September, you will find another 2-3 new pairs, just for trying...

P.S.S. If you just add 3 new to 5 older pairs would be better, so by end of the year you can compare...
  • #1,387
  • Mar 28, 2007 11:23am Mar 28, 2007 11:23am
OK,

Just got in from work to find GJ has been in excess of 200 pips up today so have moved the stop loss to +100 pips

Stop losses on the other 3 trades will be tightened tonight as they are all currently in the money.

GJ sure is a mad pair - has just risen 40 pips in less than 2 minutes lol.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,388
  • Mar 28, 2007 11:30am Mar 28, 2007 11:30am
Well seems like th GBPJPY proved to be a good choice. Dont think it will move much further down stream, but ua already have a good amount locked in.
  • #1,389
  • Mar 28, 2007 11:34am Mar 28, 2007 11:34am
Yup,

It actually got to +280 pips earlier but just over 200 at the moment

Quoting nikim
Well seems like th GBPJPY proved to be a good choice. Dont think it will move much further down stream, but ua already have a good amount locked in.
  • #1,390
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:14pm Mar 28, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting steviet
Yup,

It actually got to +280 pips earlier but just over 200 at the moment
Hi Steve,

Doing some business diversification/expansion now? That's very cool.
Anyway, thanks alot for the money management lesson here. I've 'silently' stolen your style about frequent s/l tightening and it's going well so far with my EWs.
Tra-X
  • #1,391
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:19pm Mar 28, 2007 1:19pm
Hi again,

Hope you are well - I'm always looking at the GU threads and see you're a regular contributor

I know most find it boring but money management is one (if not the) most important aspect of any system in my humble opinion.

Anyhow, great to see you

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Traex
Hi Steve,

Doing some business diversification/expansion now? That's very cool.
Anyway, thanks alot for the money management lesson here. I've 'silently' stolen your style about frequent s/l tightening and it's going well so far with my EWs.
  • #1,392
  • Mar 28, 2007 4:08pm Mar 28, 2007 4:08pm
OK, well it's not been a bad start for my 3 new trades. Current positions are....

GBPJPY short from 231.60 (s/l 230.60 guarantees plus 100 pips)
NZDUSD short from 0.7171 (s/l 0.7189 guarantees minus 18 pips)
AUDUSD short from 0.8081 (s/l 0.8101 guarantees minus 20 pips)
GBPUSD short from 1.9692 (s/l 1.9691 guarantees plus 1 pip)

GBPJPY - currently plus 232 pips
NZDUSD - currently plus 73 pips
AUDUSD - currently plus 25 pips
GBPUSD - currently plus 72 pips

New trade......

USDJPY short from 116.84 (s/l 118.10 guarantees minus 126 pips)

I couldn't really have asked for more from the new trades - the set ups looked good and they did exactly what it said on the tin

Tomorrow I'm hoping to lock in some profit - I see there is some 'red' NZD news tonight so that should be fun lol.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,393
  • Mar 29, 2007 12:33am Mar 29, 2007 12:33am
Nice trades!
  • #1,394
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:24am Mar 29, 2007 1:24am
Hehe,

They were - things have reversed dramatically overnight but at least we've locked in 100 pips on GJ - looks like that's all I'll be getting from this trade.

Kind regards
Steve
Quoting grillbritt
Nice trades!
  • #1,395
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:52am Mar 29, 2007 1:52am
Hmmm,

GBPJPY short closed out for a 100 pip profit - will have to get used to these violent swings but 100 pips is better than nothing

AUDUSD & NZDUSD have reversed on me too so will have to see but at least we have pretty tight s/l on them. UJ has also bounced back after poor Japan data and am carrying a loss of 50 pips or so there.

GU is still up 45 pips and doesn't seem to know where it's going but again have s/l at plus 1 so it's a no risk trade from here.

March pips: +309
Cumulative: +1368

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,396
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:24am Mar 29, 2007 2:24am
AUDUSD short stopped out for minus 20 pips. Was well in profit here until it reversed but there we go lol.

March pips: +289
Cumulative: +1348
  • #1,397
  • Mar 29, 2007 10:22am Mar 29, 2007 10:22am
Quoting steviet
Hehe,

They were - things have reversed dramatically overnight but at least we've locked in 100 pips on GJ - looks like that's all I'll be getting from this trade.

Kind regards
Steve
The GBPJPY can be a beast at times
  • #1,398
  • Mar 29, 2007 11:30am Mar 29, 2007 11:30am
Yup,

Although I was at one point over 280 pips up, I'll take 100 as it looks like my UJ short will reverse that.

Been an extremely frustrating day -all yesterdays non-closed gains have been virtually erased but as you keep telling me bro - BIG PICTURE

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting turbokaos
The GBPJPY can be a beast at times
  • #1,399
  • Mar 29, 2007 12:24pm Mar 29, 2007 12:24pm
Steve

I know you have your system... and you must follow it... but I post here 4 hr charts of USD/JPY

Big triangle since many days... finally breakout...

red 62 ema
white 200 sma
blue 800 sma

I say price is heading right back to the white 200 sma.. just like a magnet...

Long since coming up out of oversold !!!
Attached Image
  • #1,400
  • Mar 29, 2007 12:28pm Mar 29, 2007 12:28pm
And don't forget there are a ton of JPY reports coming out tonight... I know they are on tomorrow's daily candle... but who knows how all that might pan out !!!
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