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Don't get sucked in by dollar strength

  • #41
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:56pm Feb 26, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I am positioning for the dollar to begin weakening again. Sure it is not what you are reading on the right side of the board here with all the stories but that is exactly the point. Ask yourself a simple question, "Why am I buying the dollar?" It has been a story of..."Well armageddon and the dollar is the best of the worst"

I think the dollar play is wearing very thin personally. Look at a long term chart and you will see a secular downtrend in the dollar, no one can argue this. We are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. Consider...
Thanks for participating in corrective wave B ("the old trend will continue" crowd).
  • #42
  • Feb 26, 2009 5:50pm Feb 26, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
ha ha ha

douche i posted a thread on the usd break out. not one reply and if you had followed it you could have made money. but no it's a crap doomed currency.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=136330

last year i called the usd up when everyone told me i was a idiot. well i bought usd in july and i laughed all the way so I am one for making bold claims and trading them.

look at the situation.....

what makes the euro a good currency right now?? think about it!!!!

the 180 was a joke if u can read.

I did clean up short...
I'm not going to get into a dick measuring contest with you.

I also do not need to you to make my pips, I am quite comfortable doing this on my own. And have been for over 5 years now.

I don't give a hoot where the USD goes. I'll continue to trade my charts and I do not see any strong bullish signals. In-fact, I see numerous bearish patterns. I don't sell bottoms or buy tops either (especially when reversal signals are present), it may work for you, but it doesn't for me.

I'll be happy to change my bias when the chart shows me there is renewed buyer strength. Buying in the midst of buyer weakness is a silly, silly move. Unless of course, you're scalping the hourly chart.
  • #43
  • Feb 26, 2009 5:50pm Feb 26, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting fxterrapin
Thanks for participating in corrective wave B ("the old trend will continue" crowd).
Correct me if I am wrong, but I do not see any reference to "corrective waves" in this thread.
  • #44
  • Edited 7:01pm Feb 26, 2009 5:57pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting smittens4212
I've been reading a lot about the impending 'perfect storm' in the eurozone region because of Eastern European debt held by Western Europe. Some analysts are saying the repercussions of this could be far worse than the effects of the sub-prime crisis.
There is a big difference between the two cases.

Eastern Europe, despite being in bad shape right now, still has low prices, and low wages, which means the potential is still there for the future. (I'm talking years... not short term)

As outside demand declined, the growth in this countries was interrupted, however Demand is infinite long term, and the ones who survive will be the more competitive in the production side.

The US is different, there is a bubble not just in sub-prime, but in the entire economy. Credit Card Debt, Auto Loans and the entire Mortgage Market that have Ajustable Rates that didn't even reset higher, more than 50% of them.

And all of this is happening with 0% percent rates.
As inflation restarts, and the bubble in the bond market bursts, the rates have to rise, but considering the debt out there, there is no chance that the Fed will rise interest rates above inflation again.

This means that, there will be no reason to hold dollars as the real interest rate will be negative for years.


Conclusion: The only way to pay his debt is creating so much inflation, that makes the debt evaporate, however in hiper inflation, the currency implodes.


The problems in Europe are serious, no doubt about it. Wages in some countries are still high which makes producing more expensive. And there are some weirds and useless countries in the Union.

I agree with some great Investors that the Euro will one day have a big problem, when some of the big countries stop taking the pain for the others.

However, from the two nightmares (US and Europe), i choose Europe.

Europe, is like that kind of stock that never makes incredible profit, but is reliable and steady.

Countries like Turkey (huge market) and UK will eventually join

UK has a big problem. Their oil reserves are declining and soon they will be a Net Importer of Oil. However, if they join the Euro, trillions of pounds have to be converted in euros, and that might be good in the prior months.

Look at the numbers from the Euro M3, it is declining on a montly basis. This is good long term.
I must say i don't have a position in Eur/Usd, because i don't trade fundamentals blindly. I wait for my great Weekly Chart to light the way. No one knows what will happen to Eur/Usd in the next months... The Funds say up, but the technicalls don't say absolutly nothing. There was a big drop... so what? The only place we knew what was next, was in the beggining of the drop. Now is oversold.. it may continue, it may reverse. Techs are not there... lets wait and see.



In the short term, Us may start to see good news first, as Obama wastes trillions, but in the next 5 to 10 years, i suspect a new type of currency will be created to replace the Dollar.
  • #45
  • Feb 26, 2009 6:06pm Feb 26, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting happy camper
An article i came across a few days ago. People were making fun of Peter Schiff 5 years ago but he was right all along so...
I have also been reading Schiff's book(it is in the article), interesting and worth taking into account.
People need to learn Peter Schiff didn't do crap worth calling him a prophet that some people keep seeming to call him cause 9 out of 10 times he's wrong, he got ONE thing right, but he got plenty of other things wrong, which in the end made his investors lose a lot of money.
  • #46
  • Edited 7:07pm Feb 26, 2009 6:19pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting Code4Capital
9 out of 10 times he's wrong, he got ONE thing right, but he got plenty of other things wrong, which in the end made his investors lose a lot of money.
Peter Schiff does not trade 5 minute charts.
He invests for as long as the fundamentals need to play out.

Jim Rogers has exactly the same views, and he has a record of 4200% in Ten Years. Go and do the same, buddy.

The only ppl who lost money were the ones who got out now, because the ppl who are still there, didn't lost anything as they did not cached out.

He started to Buy Gold and Sell the dollar in 2002 and he is saying for a long time, day after day, that the end game might happen in the next 5 years, maybe lasting more if the government does not stop. I do not understand why ppl say he was wrong (past) for something that is coming (future). Thats a time paradox only possible in confused minds.


The collapse didn't happened yet, because the world is still lending money to America. The collapse he talks about, is when that blind credit stops..

It might take years, no one knows, but the bottom line, is realizing that no country can survive forever in an ever increasing Debt burden and the world does not have unlimited money.

Ultimatly if the world faces run away inflation, they will finally connect the dots and take care of their own.

Thats the message. He did not said nothing about investing for 2008 and get out...

But if you still want to live in a fantasy world... go on... don't listen to him and guys like him.

Soon you will find out, that you were one more in the crowd.. laughing at the genius.

The World history is full of examples like that.

And by the way. Forget the investing advise and pay attention to the key message. The message is that a Society must work to prosper. Must save instead of consuming to impress the neighbours. Thats sacrifice!

Never heard the words, No pain No gain? Do you really believe that a guy with a message like this, a message about being hard working and about freedom, will be wrong in the end?
  • #47
  • Feb 26, 2009 6:31pm Feb 26, 2009 6:31pm
Quoting Speculator
Peter Schiff does not trade 5 minute charts.
He invests for as long as the fundamentals need to play out.

Jim Rogers has exactly the same views, and he has a record of 4200% in Ten Years. Go and do the same, buddy.

The only ppl who lost money were the ones who got out now, because the ppl who are still there, didn't lost anything as they did not cached out.

He started to Buy Gold and Sell the dollar in 2002 and he is saying for years that the end game might happen in the next 5 years, maybe more if the government does not stop.


The collapse...
Schiff certainly isn't a naive kook.

Inserted Video
  • #48
  • Feb 27, 2009 4:55am Feb 27, 2009 4:55am
Quoting Speculator
Peter Schiff does not trade 5 minute charts.
He invests for as long as the fundamentals need to play out.

Jim Rogers has exactly the same views, and he has a record of 4200% in Ten Years. Go and do the same, buddy.

The only ppl who lost money were the ones who got out now, because the ppl who are still there, didn't lost anything as they did not cached out.

He started to Buy Gold and Sell the dollar in 2002 and he is saying for a long time, day after day, that the end game might happen in the next 5 years, maybe lasting more if the government...

Exactly!
People still can not see the main problem of US,that is they are the biggest creditors in the world,and have a dept they can never repey without devaluating the dollar.
  • #49
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:17am Feb 27, 2009 10:17am
Quoting happy camper
Exactly!
People still can not see the main problem of US,that is they are the biggest creditors in the world,and have a dept they can never repey without devaluating the dollar.
You are assuming that interest rates and the value of the dollar must go hand in hand. what if the EU, AUD, NZD go the same route? It's all relative in this game remember?

AND you are assuming that a commodities bubble / interest rate bubble didn't just collapse.
  • #50
  • Feb 27, 2009 11:30am Feb 27, 2009 11:30am
Sorry I messed up the terms a bit. English is not my native language.
I did not mean creditors,the US is not the bigest creditor, it has the biggest national debt and still rising - over 9.2 trillion. They are not lending money,they are going into debt. My previous post was a bit confusing.
  • #51
  • Feb 27, 2009 12:11pm Feb 27, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting happy camper
Sorry I messed up the terms a bit. English is not my native language.
I did not mean creditors,the US is not the bigest creditor, it has the biggest national debt and still rising - over 9.2 trillion. They are not lending money,they are going into debt. My previous post was a bit confusing.

Your English is fine.
But debt means little without comparing it to GDP (which is indeed comsumption based). Japan is far worse off here.
  • #52
  • Feb 27, 2009 12:15pm Feb 27, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting Speculator
Peter Schiff does not trade 5 minute charts.
He invests for as long as the fundamentals need to play out.

Jim Rogers has exactly the same views, and he has a record of 4200% in Ten Years. Go and do the same, buddy.

The only ppl who lost money were the ones who got out now, because the ppl who are still there, didn't lost anything as they did not cached out.

He started to Buy Gold and Sell the dollar in 2002 and he is saying for a long time, day after day, that the end game might happen in the next 5 years, maybe lasting more if the government...

Schiff stated that the USD wouldn't strengthen under ANY circumstance. Obvious he got that one wrong. Saying that commodities will reach their previous highs again is basically claiming that there never was a commodities bubble in the first place (complete rubbish).
  • #53
  • Feb 27, 2009 12:19pm Feb 27, 2009 12:19pm
People really should be more aware of Peter Schiff and his past before they endlessly meander about how right he was about gold.
  • #54
  • Feb 27, 2009 2:13pm Feb 27, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting fxterrapin
Saying that commodities will reach their previous highs again is basically claiming that there never was a commodities bubble in the first place
Having a bubble, does not mean that the fundamentals were wrong in the first place. Bubbles bursting sometimes are purely technical events.

The facts are, mines are closing, the number of farmers are declining considering that agriculture is a bad business at this point, the oil reserves are declining at a 5% pace every year.

But... Money? Rise Rise Rise... 10 to 20% every year.

Do you really believe that now a new economic and psychological paradigm will emerge, and people will pay less for things that are more rare?

Investing is about looking foward, not being stuck in short term weird behavior!

You might say, "but hey, that money is not going to the average citizen, so it will not create demand"

It doesn't matter. Even if it only goes to institutional corporations, like banks and hedge funds it will create another wave of buying, maybe another bubble. The point is that the money, no matter where it is, it will move and create general inflation or asset bubbles that burst and bring problems.


And another thing, about the Debt.

Many economists, make the mistake of looking for ratios all the time, and they don't even realize that ratios are supposed to be used on average cases.

What i mean is... Imagine a country with a GDP of 100 dollars, and a debt of 80%. And now imagine a country with a GDP of 14 Trillion dollars with a debt of 70%.

Worthless ratios will say that the first have more troubles.

But think about it... Who cares.... about the 80 dollars debt? Thats ridiculous... With luck this country might be forgiven anyway...

But 10 Trillion dollars of debt... can anyone forgive this?

The world doesn't care if some country in africa can't pay back their 200% gdp debt. But the world needs the trillions they loaned to America.

Its exactly because they are the biggest Economy that the debt is more important.

I read today that the Eastern Europe owns 1.5 trillion euros to Western Europe. THats huge, but hey... they can grow their GDP 100% in the next 10 or 15 years.

What about the US can they?

The only way for the inflation never get back again, is if the world stays in perpetual decline. Does that make any sense?
  • #55
  • Feb 27, 2009 6:24pm Feb 27, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting Speculator
Having a bubble, does not mean that the fundamentals were wrong in the first place. Bubbles bursting sometimes are purely technical events.
But in this case we have a 25 year credit bubble imploding, pointing to
the fact that demand has been artificially driven. I'd ask you to name a single bubble that didn't have a "fundamental reason"
driving it.

Quote
The facts are, mines are closing, the number of farmers are declining considering that agriculture is a bad business at this point, the oil reserves are declining at a 5% pace every year.

This you got from Jim Rogers. Who says that demand will grow?

Quote
But... Money? Rise Rise Rise... 10 to 20% every year.

Money? No. Credit.

Quote
Do you really believe that now a new economic and psychological paradigm will emerge, and people will pay less for things that are more rare?

Never will and never has. Your point?

Quote

Investing is about looking foward, not being stuck in short term weird behavior!

You might say, "but hey, that money is not going to the average citizen, so it will not create demand"

It doesn't matter.

It does matter.

Quote

Even if it only goes to institutional corporations, like banks and hedge funds it will create another wave of buying, maybe another bubble. The point is that the money, no matter where it is, it will move and create general inflation or asset bubbles that burst and bring problems.

It WILL MOVE? Why? Tell that to the Japanese Banks in the 1990 who just sat on the cash they were given.
What you describe is not what happened at all. In fact there more evidence that there wont be another bubble.


Quote
And another thing, about the Debt.

Many economists, make the mistake of looking for ratios all the time, and they don't even realize that ratios are supposed to be used on average cases.

What i mean is... Imagine a country with a GDP of 100 dollars, and a debt of 80%. And now imagine a country with a GDP of 14 Trillion dollars with a debt of 70%.

Worthless ratios will say that the first have more troubles.

But think about it... Who cares.... about the 80 dollars debt? Thats ridiculous... With luck this country might be forgiven anyway......



East euope can grow 100 GDP in the next year? Really? What if they default on their existing loans? Who would
dare loan to them after that? You are quick to point out
U.S. default possibiliy but never mention an East European default on debt.

Quote
The only way for the inflation never get back again, is if the world stays in perpetual decline. Does that make any sense?

Totally inaccurate. You can boost productivity.

What do you mean by "does that make any sense"? You are bascially saying that a prolongated economic contraction isn't logical and therefore can't happen? Huh? It get that "this time it's different" sense coming from your post.
  • #56
  • Feb 27, 2009 6:24pm Feb 27, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting smittens4212
People really should be more aware of Peter Schiff and his past before they endlessly meander about how right he was about gold.

Tells us about his past. (Seriously)
  • #57
  • Edited 9:03pm Feb 27, 2009 8:45pm | Edited 9:03pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
I'm not going to get into a dick measuring contest with you.

I also do not need to you to make my pips, I am quite comfortable doing this on my own. And have been for over 5 years now.

I don't give a hoot where the USD goes. I'll continue to trade my charts and I do not see any strong bullish signals. In-fact, I see numerous bearish patterns. I don't sell bottoms or buy tops either (especially when reversal signals are present), it may work for you, but it doesn't for me.

I'll be happy to change my bias when the chart shows me there...
that's the call of a loser if I ever heard one, considering you came on the attack to me from the get go.

I see you are another aussie dollar bear.... do u know how good this week has been for me on the 1 hour shorting the euro???

I don't help simple minded people that only see one way.... I was the biggest euro bull till 08 then I changed, can u?

dollar bears.... I want you to think about the situation we're in. Not what u read in reports like all the other dollar bears... think about the world and why the dollar is going up.

the sp500 has been making new lows and smashed though a 12 year support point that lined up a major double top from 97, it's getting closer to confirmed! the share markets are in dire straights, in technical the sp500 could end up at 600 or lower. what does that mean??? fear panic = USD and gold demand.

I hope the markets pick up and the dollar comes off. but i don't trade off hope i trade what I see. the sp500 at 500 or lower means very bad things for the world. I don't want to see that.

On top of that just look at the euro zone it's a massive mess. as pointed out by another poster eastern Europe is just about in collapse with massive debt, and the EU can't bail em out. Latvia's government fell over Iceland is in ruin doubts on Switzerland now as they have eastern Europe exposure should I keep going???

think about it Nucking Futs. DO U SEE VALUE IN THE EURO??

i am not going to reply to you again cuz frankly I feel it's a waste of time.....

go make some pips charger.
  • #58
  • Feb 27, 2009 11:14pm Feb 27, 2009 11:14pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
that's the call of a loser if I ever heard one, considering you came on the attack to me from the get go.

I see you are another aussie dollar bear.... do u know how good this week has been for me on the 1 hour shorting the euro???

I don't help simple minded people that only see one way.... I was the biggest euro bull till 08 then I changed, can u?

dollar bears.... I want you to think about the situation we're in. Not what u read in reports like all the other dollar bears... think about the world and why the dollar is going up.

the sp500...

There really is no point. This has been the most massive interest rate / commodity bubble ever (much great than the tech bubble). You are dealing with strong sentiments and feeling that don't want these mega trends to end. Many folks got burnt trying to go long the NASDAQ after the initial plunge. This time is no different. Look at it this way, somebody must take the opposite of your position...

Save your breath, you cannot convince bubble followers otherwise. They have to feel the pain in their live accounts before they get it.
  • #59
  • Feb 28, 2009 7:03am Feb 28, 2009 7:03am
March monthly view of e/u with 1.3300 as resistance
1.4400
1.3300
1.2200
  • #60
  • Feb 28, 2009 9:01am Feb 28, 2009 9:01am
I thought everyone knew that the dollar was in an "artificial" rally due to the problems in the equities markets. Everyone knows or should know that when people move to "cash" and take their money out the market they put it it in things like treasury notes which require USD. Thus the dollar does great when the economy is doing bad.

Once the market comes back and the european countries get back on their feet the dollar will fall again. The key is when.
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