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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #162,801
  • Feb 27, 2009 9:53am Feb 27, 2009 9:53am
Quoting Pipsqueak
Why would you do that when this hourly candle is about to close above the 138.60 level and the hourly 50ema and above the gann with qqe crossed up?
quick scalps for 20-30 pips - with a very tight stop.

Its times like these when we can have a very fast retrace out of nowhere.

I tend to always get blinded by them.

Made 20 from 4000 to 3980 then exited when it did not plummet.

When i see it stall like that on a retrace of only 15 or so pips i exit and continue with the trend.

Tends to work if my timing is right.

Again....the point is to try and "pick that top" (or bottom) and can be very dangerous and has bitten me often.

But i usually only risk 10% of whatever pips i am already up for the current trade moving with the trend.

If any of that makes sense.

When the price is going up 100 down 30 - Up 70 down 20 - Up 80 down 30
There are some "extra" pips in there.

And every move DOES have a top or bottom!!!!!
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #162,802
  • Feb 27, 2009 9:55am Feb 27, 2009 9:55am
seems as if we are hitting strong resistance here at DP of 140.3... possible retrace....thoughts?
  • #162,803
  • Feb 27, 2009 9:55am Feb 27, 2009 9:55am
Is there more to this rally than meets the eye ? GU has thumped the daily pivot ...
  • #162,804
  • Feb 27, 2009 9:56am Feb 27, 2009 9:56am
Quoting arezab
Q I looked at H4 chart but I saw a massive bullish HD on RSI and most important of all I saw a morning star candle stick pattern with a high wave candle in the middle.

I don't take position based on H4 chart but I hope you set your SL in place if you are going short. For me if bears come into play I'll join them after they pull market lower than 137.70 support. I'll waiting for charts though.

Trading what we see in the chart is the key to success.
price will see lower. . . 135/134 then lower - 116 - i said it earlier and i'm saying it again - 116 in the weeks to come. . . price is already losing steam. and if u glance back at that 4 hr chart lower lows, soon to be a lower high, soon to be wave two of this bear move down on 4hr chart. . . lets see where price sits after 12 noon after london packs it in for the day. . . a sell-off is forthcoming and will take many new longs by surprise on the drop!

droping as i write. . . if long hope you can absorb a huge draw down!
  • #162,805
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:00am Feb 27, 2009 10:00am
Quoting quecee5
watch out below below bro - i mean that seriously. . .
thinking the same.....
had to pass through of 140 and then to failures of it.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #162,806
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:00am Feb 27, 2009 10:00am
Quoting quecee5
watch out below below bro - i mean that seriously. . .
1.D1 already top 3 and may have DOJI before closing..
2. QQE H1 still below 50 line even just cross above gann and H4 not yet and it still bouncing ~100pips from 139 lol
3. London already test S3=136.80 and already belo my 137.50 TL line
4. Am would see big gap next week @ 136.80 then 135.50 then may seen 133 test
  • #162,807
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:01am Feb 27, 2009 10:01am
HAHHAHAH

just as i was typing that last message.....quick 50 pips down
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #162,808
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:02am Feb 27, 2009 10:02am
Quoting quecee5
watch out below below bro - i mean that seriously. . .
Hi queccee5,

I read most of your posts , but i am confused

i think it is good time for short , what you think ???
  • #162,809
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:06am Feb 27, 2009 10:06am
Quoting Pipsqueak
Why would you do that when this hourly candle is about to close above the 138.60 level and the hourly 50ema and above the gann with qqe crossed up?
1. D1 fail to test @ 141.50 for 3X
2. H1 just cross above gann but still below 50 line and may bouncing ~100 pips @139
3. Already below my TL @ london@ 136.80
4. May seen big gap next Monday @ 137 area..

Aik..look 139 sell reduce to -12..
  • #162,810
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:10am Feb 27, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Monk
thinking the same.....
had to pass through of 140 and then to failures of it.
140.30 is dp it just checked resistance there. . . down from here! once 1hr/4hr lines up with that bearish div. on daily there will be a huge drop - long red candle on the charts. . . down move not complete.

notice how price drops and then seems to stall - classic selling on the way down. after it's complete watch for another huge drop and we do it all over again. . . some would say this is buying but lets see what happens in an hour or two.
  • #162,811
  • Edited 10:25am Feb 27, 2009 10:15am | Edited 10:25am
Quoting khaled22
Hi queccee5,

I read most of your posts , but i am confused

i think it is good time for short , what you think ???
a safe short would have been up at 140.20 area. . . would wait for price to breach 138.80 support, wait for a candle close below it then short. . . once it drops you should see price attempt to regain support back above it - any rejection seen below it will be a good shorting opportunity.

Trade your chart - this is just my humble opinion looking at the current price action!
  • #162,812
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:16am Feb 27, 2009 10:16am
Quoting quecee5
140.30 is dp it just checked resistance there. . . down from here! once 1hr/4hr lines up with that bearish div. on daily there will be a huge drop - long red candle on the charts. . . down move not complete.

notice how price drops and then seems to stall - classic selling on the way down. after it's complete watch for another huge drop and we do it all over again. . . some would say this is buying but lets see what happens in an hour or two. . .
Q you mean this very night? I don't think so.

If your scenario happens tonight I'll change my avatar JJ
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #162,813
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:18am Feb 27, 2009 10:18am
Trader Vic's 2B Pattern
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  • #162,814
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:21am Feb 27, 2009 10:21am
Arezab / Forexlion ,

Buying dips at the moment until 138 breached?
  • #162,815
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:35am Feb 27, 2009 10:35am
Quoting arezab
Q you mean this very night? I don't think so.

If your scenario happens tonight I'll change my avatar JJ
No - read my earlier post. . . I said this will take some time to play out!
what I see is this. . .

check of resistance at dp, as stated earlier - check
dip back below 138.80 which is daily s1 and will soon be resistance. . .
after this happens we will see price drop 500 pips down to 133 area with a pit stop at 135.50 area. . .

it will consolidate in that area before breaking support at 133.50 then price will head on down for 130/127/124 area. . .

upon breaking 130, the low will be retested at 119 then on down to my target 116!

lets see how it all plays out - will take several weeks for this to happen if not a month or two.

right now I'm selling all rallies keeping my shorts from 141.34 area in tact to ride all the way down to new lows. . .

only a close above DP will change my view otherwise i see a possible spike not probable back up to as high as 140.85 to weed out weak shorts, then 138.80, 137.20's, 136.60's on down to 135.50's (pit stop). . . sooner rather than later. . .
  • #162,816
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:47am Feb 27, 2009 10:47am
Quoting quecee5
No - read my earlier post. . . I said this will take some time to play out!
what I see is this. . .

check of resistance at dp, as stated earlier - check
dip back below 138.80 which is daily s1 and will soon be resistance. . .
after this happens we will see price drop 500 pips down to 133 area with a pit stop at 135.50 area. . .

it will consolidate in that area before breaking support at 133.50 then price will head on down for 130/127/124 area. . .

upon breaking 130, the low will be retested at 119 then on down to my target 116!...
i'm with you on this q.

the up spike was expected.

  • #162,817
  • Feb 27, 2009 10:52am Feb 27, 2009 10:52am
Quoting quecee5
No - read my earlier post. . . I said this will take some time to play out!
what I see is this. . .

check of resistance at dp, as stated earlier - check
dip back below 138.80 which is daily s1 and will soon be resistance. . .
after this happens we will see price drop 500 pips down to 133 area with a pit stop at 135.50 area. . .

it will consolidate in that area before breaking support at 133.50 then price will head on down for 130/127/124 area. . .

upon breaking 130, the low will be retested at 119 then on down to my target 116!

lets see...

That "possible spike up" to above 140.50 area and then starting to build shorts is my scenario too. I'm with you in that %100 ...

Of course the main trend is sill down with GJ and will not reverse with these 200 or 300 pips up moves so in the matter of long term view I totally agree with you even with 116 ... I was just saying it will not happen so soon.

As you said when a lower high is confirmed on higher time frames then it will be time to sell in strength. This drop today could be a sign of real big bears stepping in.

But I remember you were trading lower time frames times ago ... with zerolagstoch ... I remember those days. What happened that you turned into trading long term? Just curious ... you don't have time or you don't like the stress of trading 15M or 5M charts?
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #162,818
  • Feb 27, 2009 11:06am Feb 27, 2009 11:06am
Quoting arezab
That "possible spike up" to above 140.50 area and then starting to build shorts is my scenario too. I'm with you in that %100 ...

Of course the main trend is sill down with GJ and will not reverse with these 200 or 300 pips up moves so in the matter of long term view I totally agree with you even with 116 ... I was just saying it will not happen so soon.

As you said when a lower high is confirmed on higher time frames then it will be time to sell in strength. This drop today could be a sign of real big bears stepping in.

But I remember you...
zerolag ahhhh, those days, those days. . .

it's a bit of both not having time to sit in front of the computer all day and the market started becoming to volatile - sure receipe for blowing accounts if u don't have a Malcom startegy in place. . . I still use ltf's to monitor PA but mainly for entry or a occassional scalp. . .

i agree that it will take a long time for this to play out. however, i'm also looking at the other side of the coin as well. . . meaning if we don't see a break of 133.50. . . - lets just say 155 will be a target. . .

I'm looking for price to sit at ar'd 136.20 by the end of the trading day . gotta see what it will do if/when it gets there. . .
  • #162,819
  • Feb 27, 2009 11:10am Feb 27, 2009 11:10am
Just shorted 140.00, planning to hold through the weekend. I'm seeing same thing as you Quecee.
  • #162,820
  • Feb 27, 2009 11:16am Feb 27, 2009 11:16am
A break of resistance @ 1417 will target the 38.2% retracement (on the daily chart from 215xx to 11880) @ 155xx. However, a break of my TL support (daily) currently at 1338x will signal the correction from 11880 is over.
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